Trade Deadline: What are you willing to do?

gilesfan said:
Inciarte is a career 89 wRC+ player and 69 wRC+ this year. Why would they want his bat over the bats they already have that are much better? Even weirder, why would they want his bat at the top of the lineup?
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Fairly certain teams don't just look at wRC+ when evaluating players. This is what I can't stand that people do with stats. Just throw out one number and have it act as the end-all, be-all. There's a lot more to things than going to fangraphs.com and citing a number you see listed. I'm sure teams look at his strong year last year (an improvement from the year before), the fact he's stealing bases at a good clip, has upped his walks while still not striking out much, the fact he's hit better since coming back from injury and that he got off to a really rough start, the fact that he's been in a terrible lineup, etc etc etc. I don't want to trade him because I feel we'd be selling low and he's bound to continue to improve. But citing one stat from a website is awfully crude analysis. There are way too many factors to leave it at that, and I'm sure St. Louis would be happy to have Inciarte.
 
zbhargrove said:
And since he's been consistently healthy, he's been playing very well.
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He hasn't hit over .260 or had an OPS over .700 a single month this entire season. While he's still playing elite defense and has a decent bit of value because of that, he's flat out been very poor offensively this year, there is really no way around it.
 
gilesfan said:
He's been a league average hitter in one of the 3 years he's participated in. He wasn't a league average hitter in the minors. What is the justification that he's a league average hitter?

Certainly, he has a ton of defensive value, but that's not what we are talking about.
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He was most certainly average in the Minors. .700 + OPS is pretty average in my opinion. I think his rookie year he was just under average, but it was his rookie year.. Then average the next and below this year.. I would think two Hammy injuries are a big part of this year.

You also mentioned why would the Cards want Ender in place of what they already have. His defense would be the reason.. Plus, just because our managers are too stupid to know how to use him, doesn't mean other teams are just as dumb. Ender has a career 112 OPS+ in the lead off spot. Plus he has a BaBip well below his career norm (albeit small career norm)...

I am not really trying to convince you of anything. So just take it as it is.. there is nothing wrong with me thinking Ender would be a good fit with the Cards and you thinking Ender is a terrible hitter.. somewhere in between lie the truth I am sure.
 
Everyone is talking about Cleveland being a great fit and the most likely to get Lucroy. I'd like to see to get involved to make that a three-way deal and get Frazier from Cleveland, then we could send some of our pitching prospects to Milwaukee.
 
auyushu said:
He hasn't hit over .260 or had an OPS over .700 a single month this entire season. While he's still playing elite defense and has a decent bit of value because of that, he's flat out been very poor offensively this year, there is really no way around it.
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Meh.. he has started to come on in the second half.. since the break he is hitting .326 with a .760 OPS.. SSS, but his BaBIp is .360 over that 12 game stretch. If you want to break his BaBip down by month, he hasn't had on over .290.. That is low for a guy who puts the ball in play.

But yes he has had a bad year. I just think it could be excused away more easily than just dismissing him as a bad hitter.. That said, he wouldn't be the first guy to work under Sietzer and come away worse..
 
auyushu said:
He hasn't hit over .260 or had an OPS over .700 a single month this entire season. While he's still playing elite defense and has a decent bit of value because of that, he's flat out been very poor offensively this year, there is really no way around it.
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No one's denying he's had a poor offensive year... but he finally got healed and rested up at the break... and he's been doing very well since the break.
 
yeezus said:
Fairly certain teams don't just look at wRC+ when evaluating players. This is what I can't stand that people do with stats. Just throw out one number and have it act as the end-all, be-all. There's a lot more to things than going to fangraphs.com and citing a number you see listed. I'm sure teams look at his strong year last year (an improvement from the year before), the fact he's stealing bases at a good clip, has upped his walks while still not striking out much, the fact he's hit better since coming back from injury and that he got off to a really rough start, the fact that he's been in a terrible lineup, etc etc etc. I don't want to trade him because I feel we'd be selling low and he's bound to continue to improve. But citing one stat from a website is awfully crude analysis. There are way too many factors to leave it at that, and I'm sure St. Louis would be happy to have Inciarte.
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What possible things would you look at to conclude he was a league average hitter? He's had 1 year out of 3 where he's been league average. Overall, in the minors he hit .284/.345/.372 at basically league appropriate levels (maybe a hair below) His league adjusted numbers throughout the minors were league average. He doesn't walk or strikeout much and doesn't hit for much power. He's a strong defensive player that may hit around league average for a CF an below league average overall. Solid player, but not the guy you are looking for if you are trying to obtain a bat.

The Cards OF bats are:

Piscotty- 129 wRC+
Moss - 140 wRC+
Holliday- 102 wRC+
Grischuk- 88 wRC+
Pham - 113 wRC+

How does it make sense to add Inciarte and put him at the top of the lineup?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
He was most certainly average in the Minors. .700 + OPS is pretty average in my opinion. I think his rookie year he was just under average, but it was his rookie year.. Then average the next and below this year.. I would think two Hammy injuries are a big part of this year.

You also mentioned why would the Cards want Ender in place of what they already have. His defense would be the reason.. Plus, just because our managers are too stupid to know how to use him, doesn't mean other teams are just as dumb. Ender has a career 112 OPS+ in the lead off spot. Plus he has a BaBip well below his career norm (albeit small career norm)...

I am not really trying to convince you of anything. So just take it as it is.. there is nothing wrong with me thinking Ender would be a good fit with the Cards and you thinking Ender is a terrible hitter.. somewhere in between lie the truth I am sure.
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Just so I'm clear...

You are suggesting Inciarte is a better hitter, above MLB average in fact, if he bats in the #1 spot in the lineup? Further, you argue that batting Inciarte at leadoff is the proper way to deploy him in the lineup of a contender?
 
Enscheff said:
Just so I'm clear...

You are suggesting Inciarte is a better hitter, above MLB average in fact, if he bats in the #1 spot in the lineup? Further, you argue that batting Inciarte at leadoff is the proper way to deploy him in the lineup of a contender?
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I am only saying his career stats say he is a better hitter when he bats leadoff. The Braves tried him there 25 games.. Not as good for us.. how a contender uses him is there call. But his career stats say he was above average in the leadoff role. Are you saying he is not an above average hitter in the lead off spot?

2014 76 games batting 1st.. 103 OPS+
2015 101 games batting 1st.. 108 OPS+
2016 25 games batting 1st... 86 OPS+
 
gilesfan said:
What possible things would you look at to conclude he was a league average hitter? He's had 1 year out of 3 where he's been league average. Overall, in the minors he hit .284/.345/.372 at basically league appropriate levels (maybe a hair below) His league adjusted numbers throughout the minors were league average. He doesn't walk or strikeout much and doesn't hit for much power. He's a strong defensive player that may hit around league average for a CF an below league average overall. Solid player, but not the guy you are looking for if you are trying to obtain a bat.

The Cards OF bats are:

Piscotty- 129 wRC+
Moss - 140 wRC+
Holliday- 102 wRC+
Grischuk- 88 wRC+
Pham - 113 wRC+

How does it make sense to add Inciarte and put him at the top of the lineup?
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Inciarte is getting the Simmons treatment here. Because he is a good athlete, and people like watching him play defense, they want to hold onto the hope that he is just a mechanical adjustment or healthy stretch of games away from an offensive breakout.

Fact of the matter is Inciarte is what he is...an elite defender that is passable offensively vs RHers (.700+ OPS), and a dumpster fire vs LHers (sub-.600 OPS). On a contender he is either a superb 4th OFer and defensive replacement, or the LHed side of a CF platoon. That's what he has proven himself to be over ~1300 PAs, but folks will continue to dream on him being more because he is a fan favorite.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I am only saying his career stats say he is a better hitter when he bats leadoff. The Braves tried him there 25 games.. Not as good for us.. how a contender uses him is there call. But his career stats say he was above average in the leadoff role. Are you saying he is not an above average hitter in the lead off spot?
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Before I answer that, can you tell me why he would hit better in 1 spot in the order versus others?
 
Enscheff said:
Inciarte is getting the Simmons treatment here. Because he is a good athlete, and people like watching him play defense, they want to hold onto the hope that he is just a mechanical adjustment or healthy stretch of games away from an offensive breakout.

Fact of the matter is Inciarte is what he is...an elite defender that is passable offensively vs RHers (.700+ OPS), and a dumpster fire vs LHers (sub-.600 OPS). On a contender he is either a superb 4th OFer and defensive replacement, or the LHed side of a CF platoon. That's what he has proven himself to be over ~1300 PAs, but folks will continue to dream on him being more because he is a fan favorite.
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his lefty/righty split is about he same this year..
 
zbhargrove said:
Think he was just reporting the stats man... he wasn't saying it was definitely going to continue... there you go again... arguing just to argue.
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So your recent arguments have turned into "I'm wrong, but you are just arguing to argue." Pretty substantial stuff you got.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I am only saying his career stats say he is a better hitter when he bats leadoff. The Braves tried him there 25 games.. Not as good for us.. how a contender uses him is there call. But his career stats say he was above average in the leadoff role. Are you saying he is not an above average hitter in the lead off spot?
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Yes, his numbers are better in the leadoff slot. But do you really think he just hits better in the leadoff spot?

Or do you think maybe, just maybe, his team batted him leadoff vs RHers, and in other positions in the lineup vs LHers to take advantage of his well documented platoon splits? Nah...can't be that.

So if you are saying the proper usage of Inciarte is to bat him leadoff vs RHers, and bench him vs LHers, I can agree based on how bad the other leadoff options on the roster are. If you're saying that a team should just stick him in the leadoff spot full time and watch the magic happen...well...that's moronic. Sorry. Feel free to complain about how much of a know-it-all jerk I am.
 
zbhargrove said:
Think he was just reporting the stats man... he wasn't saying it was definitely going to continue... there you go again... arguing just to argue.
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This is just not true. He cited a stat, and then called the Braves dumb for not hitting him leadoff:

"Plus, just because our managers are too stupid to know how to use him, doesn't mean other teams are just as dumb. Ender has a career 112 OPS+ in the lead off spot."

He used that stat as reason to hit him leadoff because he thinks it is a predictive stat. Hint: it isn't.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Meh.. he has started to come on in the second half.. since the break he is hitting .326 with a .760 OPS.. SSS, but his BaBIp is .360 over that 12 game stretch. If you want to break his BaBip down by month, he hasn't had on over .290.. That is low for a guy who puts the ball in play.

But yes he has had a bad year. I just think it could be excused away more easily than just dismissing him as a bad hitter.. That said, he wouldn't be the first guy to work under Sietzer and come away worse..
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That's not how BABIP works. Speed and the kind of contact you make is what determines BABIP over a larger sample size. For example Andrelton has very poor BABIP's but rarely strikes out. Why? A brief look would suggest he's unlucky but he pops the ball up a lot which is the absolute worst kind of contact for BABIP. You have players like Justin Upton who strike out a lot but has a career 328 BABIP because when he does make contact it's generally hard. Hard hit balls usually find holes.

I haven't looked at Enders batted ball profile but if he's making weak contact with lots of fly balls then it shouldn't be a surprise to see a low BABIP. If he's hitting line drives then you should expect that to improve.
 
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