Trade Deadline: What are you willing to do?

Enscheff said:
This is just not true. He cited a stat, and then called the Braves dumb for not hitting him leadoff:

"Plus, just because our managers are too stupid to know how to use him, doesn't mean other teams are just as dumb. Ender has a career 112 OPS+ in the lead off spot."

He used that stat as reason to hit him leadoff because he thinks it is a predictive stat. Hint: it isn't.
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The Braves are dumb not to use him at leadoff... given our options (not many good ones obviously), Inciarte clearly is the closest to a lead off hitter we have.
 
gilesfan said:
What possible things would you look at to conclude he was a league average hitter? He's had 1 year out of 3 where he's been league average. Overall, in the minors he hit .284/.345/.372 at basically league appropriate levels (maybe a hair below) His league adjusted numbers throughout the minors were league average. He doesn't walk or strikeout much and doesn't hit for much power. He's a strong defensive player that may hit around league average for a CF an below league average overall. Solid player, but not the guy you are looking for if you are trying to obtain a bat.

The Cards OF bats are:

Piscotty- 129 wRC+
Moss - 140 wRC+
Holliday- 102 wRC+
Grischuk- 88 wRC+
Pham - 113 wRC+

How does it make sense to add Inciarte and put him at the top of the lineup?
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Again: You go to a website and post a stat you see listed. This is not how teams evaluate. He had his rookie year and a good jump last year. This year he's been banged up, but seems to be healthy now. Add to it, he was overall excellent in the 2nd half last year after a rough first half. I'd argue that when healthy, he keeps showing improvement. Last three years in the minors were his best. Significant improvement from 1st half to 2nd half his rookie year and last year. I'm not really making a definitive statement on what St. Louis would want with him, but evaluating a player by going to fangraphs.com is lazy. It's reasonable to conclude that, all things considered, Inciarte is or will be an above average hitter.
 
zbhargrove said:
The Braves are dumb not to use him at leadoff... given our options (not many good ones obviously), Inciarte clearly is the closest to a lead off hitter we have.
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Except the whole discussion was about a contender trading for him and batting him leadoff since that is the "smart" way to use him (apparently he can't hit in any other lineup slot). If a team doesn't have a better option for leadoff than Inciarte, I don't think they are much of a contender.

Do you even run through the logic of your statements before you click "Post"?
 
Enscheff said:
Except the whole discussion was about a contender trading for him and batting him leadoff since that is the "smart" way to use him (apparently he can't hit in any other lineup slot). If a team doesn't doesn't have a better option for leadoff than Inciarte, I don't think they are much of a contender.

Do you even run through the logic of your statements before you click "Post"?
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I'm not addressing the contender part... I wasn't a part of that conversation... either way, his stats were valid, predictive or not.
 
Enscheff said:
Except the whole discussion was about a contender trading for him and batting him leadoff since that is the "smart" way to use him (apparently he can't hit in any other lineup slot). If a team doesn't have a better option for leadoff than Inciarte, I don't think they are much of a contender.

Do you even run through the logic of your statements before you click "Post"?
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Do you ever ask yourself... "hmmm, maybe I don't know everything and I could be wrong once or twice in life?" before you click post?
 
yeezus said:
Again: You go to a website and post a stat you see listed. This is not how teams evaluate. He had his rookie year and a good jump last year. This year he's been banged up, but seems to be healthy now. Add to it, he was overall excellent in the 2nd half last year after a rough first half. I'd argue that when healthy, he keeps showing improvement. Last three years in the minors were his best. Significant improvement from 1st half to 2nd half his rookie year and last year. I'm not really making a definitive statement on what St. Louis would want with him, but evaluating a player by going to fangraphs.com is lazy. It's reasonable to conclude that, all things considered, Inciarte is or will be an above average hitter.
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Only when he's in a platoon situation because that's what his performance has suggested so far. And there is nothing wrong with that but it's something to keep in mind.
 
Enscheff said:
Yes, his numbers are better in the leadoff slot. But do you really think he just hits better in the leadoff spot?

Or do you think maybe, just maybe, his team batted him leadoff vs RHers, and in other positions in the lineup vs LHers to take advantage of his well documented platoon splits? Nah...can't be that.

So if you are saying the proper usage of Inciarte is to bat him leadoff vs RHers, and bench him vs LHers, I can agree based on how bad the other leadoff options on the roster are. If you're saying that a team should just stick him in the leadoff spot full time and watch the magic happen...well...that's moronic. Sorry. Feel free to complain about how much of a know-it-all jerk I am.
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would never call you a know it all... :suprise:

but just look at his 2015 splits. he started 116 games.. 101 of those games he batted leadoff and produced a 108 OPS+ the other 15 games he hit 2nd and produced a 103 OPS..

He started 30 games against a LH starter. and 86 vs a righty.. you can come up with your own conclusion..
 
Enscheff said:
And not predictive in any way, which is how he attempted to use them when he called the Braves idiots for not hitting Ender leadoff.
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I do think they are dumb not to use him there. I don't see how he is useful anywhere else. The Braves didn't want to hit him leadoff because they had Neck in the 2 hole and didn't want 3 lefties in a row. Unless you can show me stats that say he was hit lower in the order against a lefty, then I think my stats are more predictive than anything else I have seen posted.. which are just assumptions and personal evaluations.
 
Its really annoying when people are just throwing trade ideas out for discussion and there are always 2-4 posters who do nothing but spend all their time berating said trade proposals and treating the authors like idiots.
 
yeezus said:
Again: You go to a website and post a stat you see listed. This is not how teams evaluate. He had his rookie year and a good jump last year. This year he's been banged up, but seems to be healthy now. Add to it, he was overall excellent in the 2nd half last year after a rough first half. I'd argue that when healthy, he keeps showing improvement. Last three years in the minors were his best. Significant improvement from 1st half to 2nd half his rookie year and last year. I'm not really making a definitive statement on what St. Louis would want with him, but evaluating a player by going to fangraphs.com is lazy. It's reasonable to conclude that, all things considered, Inciarte is or will be an above average hitter.
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So your justification that he is an above league average hitter is that he hit well in the second half of his rookie year and a league average season in his 2nd year? Good thing you aren't a lawyer. WHy would it make sense to have his bat over the bats they already have?
 
thewupk said:
That's not how BABIP works. Speed and the kind of contact you make is what determines BABIP over a larger sample size. For example Andrelton has very poor BABIP's but rarely strikes out. Why? A brief look would suggest he's unlucky but he pops the ball up a lot which is the absolute worst kind of contact for BABIP. You have players like Justin Upton who strike out a lot but has a career 328 BABIP because when he does make contact it's generally hard. Hard hit balls usually find holes.

I haven't looked at Enders batted ball profile but if he's making weak contact with lots of fly balls then it shouldn't be a surprise to see a low BABIP. If he's hitting line drives then you should expect that to improve.
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I agree that is not how BaBip is used. his Hard contact% is down this year too.. more FB this year. hard to tell if it is a blip or norm. But he is below his normal BaBip..
 
zbhargrove said:
Do you ever ask yourself... "hmmm, maybe I don't know everything and I could be wrong once or twice in life?" before you click post?
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All the time. We disagreed with Albies' power potential, and I could very well end up being wrong about that. He might pop 16 HRs some year and prove me wrong. I hope he does. I hope he becomes a 20+ HR guy, but it is unrealistic to even suggest it.

Now is not one of those times though. Inciarte is not a good hitter overall (.695 career OPS, .625 this year). He is a terrible hitter vs LHers (.588 career OPS against them). He is passable offensively vs RHers (.740 career OPS against them). He is elite defensively (nobody will argue that). His position in the lineup has nothing to do with how well he hits (a moronic assertion that it is a predictive stat). He hasn't shown any real signs of breaking out and becoming a good hitter (based on batted ball profiles and exit velocities). Add all that up and he is a platoon CFer or a good 4th OFer on a contending team.

I am right about all those things. Sorry if it offends you.
 
thewupk said:
Only when he's in a platoon situation because that's what his performance has suggested so far. And there is nothing wrong with that but it's something to keep in mind.
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I'm not 100% ready to make that judgement. He wasn't much worse vs. lefties his rookie year. Last year he definitely was, but that's why I prefer to hold onto him and just play him every day and see what we've got.
 
Enscheff said:
All the time. We disagreed with Albies' power potential, and I could very well end up being wrong about that. He might pop 16 HRs some year and prove me wrong. I hope he does. I hope he becomes a 20+ HR guy, but it is unrealistic to even suggest it.

Now is not one of those times though. Inciarte is not a good hitter overall (.695 career OPS, .625 this year). He is a terrible hitter vs LHers (.588 career OPS against them). He is passable offensively vs RHers (.740 career OPS against them). He is elite defensively (nobody will argue that). His position in the lineup has nothing to do with how well he hits (a moronic assertion that it is a predictive stat). He hasn't shown any real signs of breaking out and becoming a good hitter (based on batted ball profiles and exit velocities). Add all that up and he is a platoon CFer or a good 4th OFer on a contending team.

I am right about all those things. Sorry if it offends you.
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I never said it was a predictive stat... and I agree he would likely find the most value in a platoon situation. But I think he has real trade value somewhere. I just thought the vitriol to Matt was a little ridiculous from you guys.
 
zbhargrove said:
Its really annoying when people are just throwing trade ideas out for discussion and there are always 2-4 posters who do nothing but spend all their time berating said trade proposals and treating the authors like idiots.
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So come up with more realistic trade ideas. I got lambasted for suggesting the Braves could get Braun and Lucroy for Jenkins. It was a pretty bad proposal on my part because I severely underrated the cost for Lucroy.

Did I start whining about how mean people are? Did I start calling names while I hid under my mother's skirt crying like a little girl?

Stop crying. The Cardinals don't want Inciarte.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I agree that is not how BaBip is used. his Hard contact% is down this year too.. more FB this year. hard to tell if it is a blip or norm. But he is below his normal BaBip..
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While that's true he really hasn't played that much to get a read on what his baseline is. Could be that 2015 was the blip. I'm not suggesting that to be the case but with Ender his MLB career is still a relatively small sample size in the grand scheme of things. He does have a 19% infield fly ball % which I will go out on a limb and say that's the primary reason for the BABIP drop. If he stops popping the ball up he will get more hits which is pretty self explanatory.
 
zbhargrove said:
I never said it was a predictive stat... and I agree he would likely find the most value in a platoon situation. But I think he has real trade value somewhere. I just thought the vitriol to Matt was a little ridiculous from you guys.
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vitriol to Matt... Man, I don't care about Vitriol.. meet my wife and you would see I welcome this.. it is a few internet nerds arguing about a guy who is supremely more talented than any of us.. I personally think batting order position plays more of a role in how one hits than others do... They think you are going to hit what you hit regardless of where you bat. I think human emotions and thought process have more in play here..
 
yeezus said:
I'm not 100% ready to make that judgement. He wasn't much worse vs. lefties his rookie year. Last year he definitely was, but that's why I prefer to hold onto him and just play him every day and see what we've got.
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Sure. He's 25 and players do get better. Braves also are going nowhere so they should definitely see what they have.
 
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