Trade one Keep One

[thethe]

We do. Otherwise we have to piece togethor a lot of hits togethor to score runs. And while that has happened a lot fthis year I don't necessarily think it is something to be counted on going forward.

It happened often with Freeman in th elineup. Without him we have no chance.

 

[thewupk]

I want guys that battle at the plate and make the pitcher work. If they have power wonderful. If not, I still want those players on my team. I wonder if there are studies done on teams that draw the most pitches per AB and how that correlates to runs scored.

We do know what corrleates to runs scored. Getting on base and hitting for power. Going all in on one or the other usually doesn't work out to well. You don't even need a lot of power. But the Braves are 13th in the NL in slg this year.

 

[thewupk]

It happened often with Freeman in th elineup. Without him we have no chance.

The Braves also had the highest BABIP in baseball with RISP a good portion of the year. Expecting that to continue is setting yourself up for failure.

 

[nsacpi]

Prado home run numbers by year:

2004 age 20 Low A: 3 home runs

2005 age 21 High A & AA: 5 home runs

2006 age 22 AA, AAA & majors: 4 home runs

2007 age 23 AAA & majors: 4 home runs

2008 age 24 AA & majors: 2 home runs

2009 age 25 majors: 11 home runs

2010 age 26 majors: 15 home runs

He's hit 10-14 HR's each year over 2011-2014.

Of course every player develops differently. But in general power develops a bit later than other aspects of hitting. Btw it is with this pattern of development in mind that leads me to strongly favor delaying the start of the service clock for a player like Peraza as long as possible. I don't want to give up his 28 year old season to have him with the major league team in his age 21 or age 22 season..

 

[thethe]

The Braves also had the highest BABIP in baseball with RISP a good portion of the year. Expecting that to continue is setting yourself up for failure.

When your best hitter goes down I would expect every measurable hitting statistic to go down.

 

[thethe]

We do know what corrleates to runs scored. Getting on base and hitting for power. Going all in on one or the other usually doesn't work out to well. You don't even need a lot of power. But the Braves are 13th in the NL in slg this year.

And they were still scoring a bunch of runs when Freeman was in the lineup. Discount it all you want based on predictive stats but the fact is that they were scoring runs with only one true power hitter surrounded by a bunch of other good hitter who got on base.

 

[thethe]

Prado home run numbers by year:

2004 age 20 Low A: 3 home runs

2005 age 21 High A & AA: 5 home runs

2006 age 22 AA, AAA & majors: 4 home runs

2007 age 23 AAA & majors: 4 home runs

2008 age 24 AA & majors: 2 home runs

2009 age 25 majors: 11 home runs

2010 age 26 majors: 15 home runs

Of course every player develops differently. But in general power develops a bit later than other aspects of hitting. Btw it is with this pattern of development in mind that leads me to strongly favor delaying the start of the service clock for a player like Peraza as long as possible. I don't want to give up his 28 year old season to have him with the major league team in his age 21 or age 22 season..

I agree with all of this. I think its safe to project slight upticks in power with most players that seem to have a good hit tool.

 

[thewupk]

When your best hitter goes down I would expect every measurable hitting statistic to go down.

Because Freeman was responsbile for everyone else's hitting with RISP to be where it was? Not even Bonds in his steroid prime was that good.

 

[Garmel]

Prado is your best case for Peraza btw at 3B> Hit well enough but give amazing defense. And escobar has a 1.1 fWAR through abour half the season. 2 fWAR is a good player. Ciriaco has played pretty well if he put his stats up ovewr a full season he'd do well, That being said, if you combine all 6 years he spent in the majors, he still doens't have 600 PA. I don't think bringing him up makes even a lick of sense.

And there is someone on that list we could get, Todd Frazier. A Miller and Uribe for Frazier and Lorenzen trade could benefit both teams quite well. Cincy needs pitching, Braves need power and a 3B. WE're basically giving them a plug in 3B for this year, and a fantastic pitcher, we're taking back a very nice pitching prospect and a great 3B. Unfortunately we waited a year too late to move on Frazier. As his power finally kicked in and he's amazing now.

And it's not an upgrade over either of them. It's getting someone who can put similar value at 3B to them (aka hit around average for the league and provide great defense) and using them as leverage in a trade to get better at a position of weakness (catcher, corner OF)

I'd love to get Frazier. On top of that if we pay Cespedes the 20+ million contract he wants our offense would be fantastic.

 

[nsacpi]

When your best hitter goes down I would expect every measurable hitting statistic to go down.

His point had nothing to do with whether Freeman was injured or not.

 

[thethe]

Because Freeman was responsbile for everyone else's hitting with RISP to be where it was? Not even Bonds in his steroid prime was that good.

I think Maybe certainly benefitted from pitchers who didn't want to walk Maybin and pitch to Freeman. Call me old fashioned.

 

[thewupk]

And they were still scoring a bunch of runs when Freeman was in the lineup. Discount it all you want based on predictive stats but the fact is that they were scoring runs with only one true power hitter surrounded by a bunch of other good hitter who got on base.

If by scoring a bunch of runs you mean being league average then I guess you are right. And it hasn't even been 3 months. You may want to wait the entire year before you claim SS's to be true.

 

[thethe]

His point had nothing to do with whether Freeman was injured or not.

Freeman was smashing the ball all over the place with runners on base. If you take him out of the equation of course the Braves numbers should go down.

His point was that hte Braves BABIP has normalized. And of course a part of it is that. Another part of that is that there best hitter with runners on base is not in the lineup.

 

[thethe]

If by scoring a bunch of runs you mean being league average then I guess you are right. And it hasn't even been 3 months. You may want to wait the entire year before you claim SS's to be true.

They are 8th right now in the NL and have scored crap since Freeman went out.

Weren't they 3rd in the NL when he went down?

 

[nsacpi]

Frazier to me is a very risky player to pick up. Having a season that far exceeds his career trends at age 29. Has played in a very favorable hitter's environment.

 

[Heyward]

Yeah, only reason I could see it happening is if you catch them needing a starter at the deadline and move a controllable asset like Shelby Miller, and the production of Turner this year making them really not have room at 3B atm.

They need pitching but they have McCarthy, Ryu coming back next year.

I doubt they give away their top hitting prospect.

And they could just as easily go with AGon-Seager-Guerrero/FA-Turner as their infield next year.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I've said for a while that peraza at ss is the best ROI.

I'm just not sure we have options. Maybe the rockies would trade McMahon since they have Arenado. Maybe the twins would trade Ploffe b/c they have Sano? Not sure if we match up.

I don't see us trading Miller. That's Hart's guy.

I get that Prado is the comp for both Peraza and Peterson. My point is if Prado is a top half of the league 3b, that we could get that from one of those guys for cheap. And I think that is probably the high side of their offensive capability, but i think both of them could be better defensively. Especially Peraza.

I'd add dj peterson...maybe since the mariners have seager......prospect for prospect trades seem rare though.

 

[auyushu]

Prado home run numbers by year:

But in general power develops a bit later than other aspects of hitting. Btw it is with this pattern of development in mind that leads me to strongly favor delaying the start of the service clock for a player like Peraza as long as possible. I don't want to give up his 28 year old season to have him with the major league team in his age 21 or age 22 season..

Pretty huge difference between Peraza and Prado is the amount of doubles. It's pretty common for guys who hit a ton of doubles like Prado did in the minors to have a few of them turn into homers as they mature. It's extremely rare for a guy who doesn't hit doubles or HRs in the minors to start hitting 10 HRs in the majors. I'd agree with you that it's ideal to have a player come up around their age 23-24 season though. You pretty much can get their peak value and not have to worry about extending them beyond their first deal, letting them walk at 30-32 depending on if you can get a couple of options.

 

[Heyward]

I'd love to get Frazier. On top of that if we pay Cespedes the 20+ million contract he wants our offense would be fantastic.

I'd back away from Frazier unless we extent him.

 

[nsacpi]

Freeman was smashing the ball all over the place with runners on base. If you take him out of the equation of course the Braves numbers should go down.

His point was that hte Braves BABIP has normalized. And of course a part of it is that. Another part of that is that there best hitter with runners on base is not in the lineup.

His point had to do with hitting with RISP by hitters not named Freeman. There might be small positive effect from having Freeman in the lineup on those numbers, but it is minimal.