I'm hoping for 4-1 or 1-4 this series. Either get us back into contention or deliver the death blow. 2-3 or 3-2 leaves us in practically the same situation we were in to start the series, which is close enough not to give up, but not really playing well enough to warrant "going for it."
Trades/acquisitions
- Thread starter msstate7
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I'm hoping for 4-1 or 1-4 this series. Either get us back into contention or deliver the death blow. 2-3 or 3-2 leaves us in practically the same situation we were in to start the series, which is close enough not to give up, but not really playing well enough to warrant "going for it."
To this I would say, how much would trading Morton/Smyly really set us back? With Muller pitching as well as he has and Anderson, Davidson, and Ynoa due back soon, the rotation should like Fried, Anderson, Ynoa, Muller, with Touki/Davidson/Wilson/Wright as the 5th starter. Is that so much worse than Fried, Anderson, Morton, Smyly, and Muller/Ynoa?
Maybe it's unfair to expect Ynoa, Touki, and Muller to continue pitching the way they have this year, but it certainly can't be ignored either. And given the teams unlikely chances of winning the division, I think it's definitely a gamble worth taking.
I think you're underestimating the pitching market and how well both Morton and Smyly have pitched (especially lately), along with the playoff experience that Morton has. I think both guys would be highly sought after if we sold.
We had all those guys plus acuna and never made it above. 500
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Well MLB Trade Rumors just released their top 60 trade candidates. Our guys aren't listed, likely because they don't expect us to sell, but wondering where you'd slot them in on this list
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/top-60-mlb-trade-candidates-trade-deadlnie.html
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
Morton and Smyly are numbers 50 and 51.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
How would everyone feel about a Freeman for Hosmer, Abrams and Hassell trade?
Yes Hosmer is an albatross. I said that when he was a FA. However, in 2022 he's owed $20M, then in 23, 24, 25 he's at $13M each. Can he be a 1.5WAR guy in 23, 24, 25? If so, the real outlier is 22. BUT, if you re-sign Freeman to a Goldy type contract (5 years, $130M - and why would Freeman take less in reality) then you are paying Freeman $26/for the next 5 years.
The above trade would be an overpay for the Pads BUT not by a huge amount. Preller might do it to get Freeman for the stretch run (plus sign him long term) and get rid of Hosmer's obligations.
Yes Hosmer is an albatross. I said that when he was a FA. However, in 2022 he's owed $20M, then in 23, 24, 25 he's at $13M each. Can he be a 1.5WAR guy in 23, 24, 25? If so, the real outlier is 22. BUT, if you re-sign Freeman to a Goldy type contract (5 years, $130M - and why would Freeman take less in reality) then you are paying Freeman $26/for the next 5 years.
The above trade would be an overpay for the Pads BUT not by a huge amount. Preller might do it to get Freeman for the stretch run (plus sign him long term) and get rid of Hosmer's obligations.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
But now you have Hosmer and still have to pay someone to replace FF.
Morton's .298 xwOBA makes him a legit #3 who is better when smart teams limit him to 18-20 batters...as they will in the playoffs. He is a proven weapon in the playoffs, and is the 2nd best SP being mentioned in trade rumors. Dominant pitchers have an outsized impact in Octrober, and the only 2 guys with more potential impact are Scherzer and Kimbrel. If the Braves trade him they should be able to get a Top50-100 guy plus some decent filler.
Now, if Morton and Freeman have made it known they will not allow themselves to be traded, then AA has no choice but to be a buyer. Someone like Harrison for LF and one of the generic RHP on that MLBTR list would be solid low cost additions that shouldn't cost much and will give the Braves a punchers chance to catch the Mets.
Now, if Morton and Freeman have made it known they will not allow themselves to be traded, then AA has no choice but to be a buyer. Someone like Harrison for LF and one of the generic RHP on that MLBTR list would be solid low cost additions that shouldn't cost much and will give the Braves a punchers chance to catch the Mets.
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Yeah no thanks to Hosmer. I'd rather move Riley to first and go out and hunt a third baseman in the offseason.
This is the type of trade SD will need to make to unload Hosmer, but it will be to a rebuilding team, not to a team with limited payroll in the middle of a contention window.
It is funny you don't want to pay an excellent player to play 1B, but would be fine paying a replacement level player to play 1B. Your boner for finally trading Freeman is showing.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
Wow I didn't even look that far, thinking they'd be in the top 30 or so. I guess that just proves my point as to their trade value though.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
They did just kind of throw them in because they didn't expect the Braves to be in sell mode. I imagine they would rocket up that list if there was more certainty as to their availability.
This seems to line up with what Szymborski wrote on Fangraphs. So of the teams rumored to be interested for starting pitching (excluding Mets/Phillies), we could likely expect the headlining prospect in the package to be someone like...
Tampa- Josh Lowe, Xavier Edwards, Taylor Walls, Greg Jones (Braves were rumored to be very interested in Jones in 2019 draft, but they took Shewmake one pick ahead of where Tampa took Jones).
Houston- Jeremy Pena.
Los Angeles- Michael Busch, Andy Pages, Bobby Miller.
San Diego- Robert Hassell, MacKenzie Gore (his stock has really fallen this year, maybe he'd be available now?)
San Francisco- Heliot Ramos, Luis Matos.
I just can't imagine any good argument for AA holding onto Morton over taking ANY of those prospects above in return for him plus some filler also included.
NYCBrave
Well-known member
The problem with the Goldy contract comparison is I don't see it happening for Freeman, for a number of reasons. First, Freeman will likely take slightly less to stay in Atlanta (and why wouldn't he want the team to use those saved funds on improving the team around him). Next, we still appear to be in a bit of a depressed market due to losses from Covid. Attendance is still not nearly back to the level it was, and teams will surely be wise about spending. And third, it's been only a couple of years since the Goldy signing, but it feels like teams each year and being smarter and smarter about how they spend on aging players. We will see how it plays out.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
It's about value. If you can get a Dansby replacement (Abrams) (saves you roughly $10M after 2022) and a Ozuna replacement (Hassell) (saves you roughly $13M at some point) then paying Hosmer $13M per year in 2023 is certainly preferable than paying Freeman $25M in 2023. You've theoretically saved yourself 10+13+12=$35M as opposed to hoping that a mid thirties Freeman will be worth $25M per year.
I admire Freeman. In a vacuum, I would say the Braves should sign him and keep him around. Buy him a rocking chair when retires. Just be prepared to spend the money to plaster over the cracks caused by his failing productivity as he ages. I have no interest in seeing the "grand old man" simply for that sake only. My interest is in winning baseball with a desire for a chance at a WS or two.
And yes, Hosmer, isn't a desired option for 1B. Freeman is light years better and likely will be in 3 years still. But will the difference between the two be enough to outweigh the talent and financial flexibility gained?
If you assume that, in the scenario above, Abrams and Hassell never develop or develop marginally to only become barely serviceable ML players, then you don't do the deal 10/10. But, that's why you pay your talent evaluators. I'm working from a "for instance" basis. I don't have the scouting reports that Atlanta theoretically has on Abrams and Hassell. I'm just paper scouting, which is all I can do, and firmly admit that it may not be exactly that trade that needs to happen.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Hosmer replaces Freeman at 1B. Sure, you lose Freemans 4-6 WAR and replace with Hosmer's 1-3. No question a downgrade. But you expect to gain WAR through the talent returned in trade AND the ability to apply the financial difference between what you are paying Hosmer versus what you would be paying Freeman.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Since the banning of Coppolella, Preller seems to have taken up the mantle of hyperactive quirkiness in the trade department, but I don't think he'd be crazy enough to do this deal unless Freeman agreed to an extension as part of the deal.
I get the logic behind MLBTR's list, but if the Braves become sellers, Morton is probably a top five guy unless he has veto rights. I think Smyly would be in the top twenty.
CJ9 really lays out a nice set of possible returns on a Morton and/or Smyly deals. Maybe a bit on the optimistic side for some, but deals can always be expanded from our end to get the best return.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
But you are assuming the prospect so what you want them too. Bird in the hand is better than 3 in the bush. I get trading guys to get prospects. But to bank on expensive players added to it is way to risky for a contending team.
Gotta say I wouldn’t be happy on this outcome.
That list is some nebulous combination of value and likelihood of being traded. For some reason the narrative surrounding the Braves is that they are going to be buyers, so these writers have to assume they won't sell Morton.