nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We have had the luxury this season of having six strong candidates for the starting rotation. Acknowledging the tendency of pitchers to break down, this is something to be enjoyed. We should not be a hurry to do something about it. But if all six remain healthy as we get close to the trading deadline, we should consider moving one of them if the right kind of offer comes along.
Whether or not we trade one of our starters we should find a way to reinsert Alex Wood into the rotation at some point in July. Why? There are two reasons. One having to do with this season. One having to do with next season. The Braves do not like to sharply increase the innings of their young pitchers. They like to push the number of innings up by 30-40 a year, and there is some research to back up their concerns about injury risk when you ramp up innings too fast.
Alex Wood pitched a total of 140 innings last year. Ideally, he goes 170-180 this year. This would set him up to go 200 or so next year. Keeping him in the pen the rest of this year would put the club in a situation of having to limit his innings next year.
The second consideration has to do with this year. Simply put, there is a strong argument to be made that Alex is one one of our top 5 starters this year and that moving him into the rotation will make the team better. Looking at his numbers as a starter, he put up an xFIP of 2.18 in 2013 (11 starts) and 2.98 this year (7 starts). That compares favorably to our other starters. Santana has x-FIP of 3.69 and 3.38 last year and this year, Harang is at 4.38 and 3.51. And Floyd is at 3.37 this year. Floyd didn't pitch much last year, so for reference I'll mention he had a 4.26 xFIP in 2012.
To get an idea of expected performance for the rest of this year, I would average xFIP for this year and last year, or this year and 2012 in the case of Floyd. Doing this puts Wood first, then Santana with a clear edge over the remaining two. Harang and Floyd would end up pretty close using this method.
We should be fairly realistic about what we might get back in a trade involving those guys at the deadline. With two months left in the season, Harang and Floyd would be valued at about 1 win above replacement. Harang has a very low salary, so his surplus value will be higher. Teams might be willing to overpay a little at the deadline for a veteran pitcher in good form but at best they will be given a surplus valuation of about 1 WAR or $6 million.
Keeping that in mind, a trade could be structured in several ways. Money is fungible and we should always be happy to accept that even if it is in the form of the other team taking on part of the salary of a player we want to get rid of. Prospects are also fungible and we should be willing to accept payment in that form as well. It should be noted that a prospect with an expected value of 1 WAR is not the type you would see in BA's Top 100 list. It would, however, be a player in the bottom half of a team's list of Top 10 prospects.
Finally, we could use Floyd or Harang to try to directly improve the major league roster. We could upgrade the bench or the pen. Our one need in the starting lineup is at third base. But it seems unlikely we could find an improvement over Chris Johnson in that sort of trade. Unless we enhanced what was going to the other team beyond Floyd or Harang.
Whether or not we trade one of our starters we should find a way to reinsert Alex Wood into the rotation at some point in July. Why? There are two reasons. One having to do with this season. One having to do with next season. The Braves do not like to sharply increase the innings of their young pitchers. They like to push the number of innings up by 30-40 a year, and there is some research to back up their concerns about injury risk when you ramp up innings too fast.
Alex Wood pitched a total of 140 innings last year. Ideally, he goes 170-180 this year. This would set him up to go 200 or so next year. Keeping him in the pen the rest of this year would put the club in a situation of having to limit his innings next year.
The second consideration has to do with this year. Simply put, there is a strong argument to be made that Alex is one one of our top 5 starters this year and that moving him into the rotation will make the team better. Looking at his numbers as a starter, he put up an xFIP of 2.18 in 2013 (11 starts) and 2.98 this year (7 starts). That compares favorably to our other starters. Santana has x-FIP of 3.69 and 3.38 last year and this year, Harang is at 4.38 and 3.51. And Floyd is at 3.37 this year. Floyd didn't pitch much last year, so for reference I'll mention he had a 4.26 xFIP in 2012.
To get an idea of expected performance for the rest of this year, I would average xFIP for this year and last year, or this year and 2012 in the case of Floyd. Doing this puts Wood first, then Santana with a clear edge over the remaining two. Harang and Floyd would end up pretty close using this method.
We should be fairly realistic about what we might get back in a trade involving those guys at the deadline. With two months left in the season, Harang and Floyd would be valued at about 1 win above replacement. Harang has a very low salary, so his surplus value will be higher. Teams might be willing to overpay a little at the deadline for a veteran pitcher in good form but at best they will be given a surplus valuation of about 1 WAR or $6 million.
Keeping that in mind, a trade could be structured in several ways. Money is fungible and we should always be happy to accept that even if it is in the form of the other team taking on part of the salary of a player we want to get rid of. Prospects are also fungible and we should be willing to accept payment in that form as well. It should be noted that a prospect with an expected value of 1 WAR is not the type you would see in BA's Top 100 list. It would, however, be a player in the bottom half of a team's list of Top 10 prospects.
Finally, we could use Floyd or Harang to try to directly improve the major league roster. We could upgrade the bench or the pen. Our one need in the starting lineup is at third base. But it seems unlikely we could find an improvement over Chris Johnson in that sort of trade. Unless we enhanced what was going to the other team beyond Floyd or Harang.
