Trading Teheran

I won't trade a guy who has been an All-Star for most of his career and has gone through a rough patch for less than a year. Don't get me wrong, if the right package was offered, then you can't say no... but, I wouldn't go pursue it. I think it's confidence. Demote him for a few weeks if you want, but don't trade him.

Honestly, minus his bad outing two times ago, his stats have been pretty good at least.
 
gilesfan said:
His 2012 average velocity(4 seam) was 93.11

2013 93

2014 92.24

2015 91.70
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Yes, Giles. I see that you are pointing out that his average speed hasn't dipped as much as I said.

On Sunday, I saw him throw an 88 mph 4 seam fastball to Brandon Crawford, who hit it out. The pitch was slow enough that the spin brought it back over the middle of the plate, rather than staying in on his hands where Julio wanted it. Kinda like hitting a putt too soft and watching it curl in front of the hole.

You augment your visual observations with statistics, not the other way around.

So I went ahead and looked it up and two of his last three games his average fastball has been 89. And once earlier this month. First three times in his career he's had games with average four seam velocity under 90.

I'll say it again. He's hurt. He's fighting through it. He's about 5% off, and in the big leagues, that matters.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Yes, Giles. I see that you are pointing out that his average speed hasn't dipped as much as I said.

On Sunday, I saw him throw an 88 mph 4 seam fastball to Brandon Crawford, who hit it out. The pitch was slow enough that the spin brought it back over the middle of the plate, rather than staying in on his hands where Julio wanted it. Kinda like hitting a putt too soft and watching it curl in front of the hole.

You augment your visual observations with statistics, not the other way around.

So I went ahead and looked it up and two of his last three games his average fastball has been 89. And once earlier this month. First three times in his career he's had games with average four seam velocity under 90.

I'll say it again. He's hurt. He's fighting through it. He's about 5% off, and in the big leagues, that matters.
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I saw the same "pitch" except it wasn't to Crawford. 88 and not much life with too much plate. Guy watched it go by, and was kicking himself. Maybe thought CU?
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Yes, Giles. I see that you are pointing out that his average speed hasn't dipped as much as I said.

On Sunday, I saw him throw an 88 mph 4 seam fastball to Brandon Crawford, who hit it out. The pitch was slow enough that the spin brought it back over the middle of the plate, rather than staying in on his hands where Julio wanted it. Kinda like hitting a putt too soft and watching it curl in front of the hole.

You augment your visual observations with statistics, not the other way around.

So I went ahead and looked it up and two of his last three games his average fastball has been 89. And once earlier this month. First three times in his career he's had games with average four seam velocity under 90.

I'll say it again. He's hurt. He's fighting through it. He's about 5% off, and in the big leagues, that matters.
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Solid post.
I will say though, Julio is adamant he's not at all hurt and feels great, and says he would not pitch thru injury. Is he lying or being misleading? totally possible. but he's been pretty insistent that he's not hurt at all. his velo is certainly more inconsistent though. we still have to keep in mind he's really young, and young pitchers notoriously struggle to find consistency.
 
The radar gun in San Francisco seemed off. I thought Bumgarner's numbers were low too.

Veal though was throwing gas (on the fire).
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Yes, Giles. I see that you are pointing out that his average speed hasn't dipped as much as I said.

On Sunday, I saw him throw an 88 mph 4 seam fastball to Brandon Crawford, who hit it out. The pitch was slow enough that the spin brought it back over the middle of the plate, rather than staying in on his hands where Julio wanted it. Kinda like hitting a putt too soft and watching it curl in front of the hole.

You augment your visual observations with statistics, not the other way around.

So I went ahead and looked it up and two of his last three games his average fastball has been 89. And once earlier this month. First three times in his career he's had games with average four seam velocity under 90.

I'll say it again. He's hurt. He's fighting through it. He's about 5% off, and in the big leagues, that matters.
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The pitch to Crawfor was 89.6 mph. His max velocity on the day was 93.8 mph and his average was 91.1.

The problem with Teheran is the unreal expectations placed on him after last years low ERA (mid 3 FIP) season. He's was a bit lucky last year and unlucky this year; which baseball has a cruel way of equalizing. He'll be fine and settle in to somewhere in between the last 2 years. Its not really uncommon for guys to slowly have their fastball decrease through their mid 20's.

Here is an interesting article:
http://www.sportsonearth.com/articl...eball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

One mile per hour of fastball velocity is worth a fifth to a third of a run of run prevention, Mike Fast found before the Houston Astros hired him away from writing. On average, even a 22-24 year old is already losing a half tick on the gun every year, and it's hard for a modest improvement in command to undo that loss.

Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png
 
gilesfan said:
The pitch to Crawfor was 89.6 mph. His max velocity on the day was 93.8 mph and his average was 91.1.

The problem with Teheran is the unreal expectations placed on him after last years low ERA (mid 3 FIP) season. He's was a bit lucky last year and unlucky this year; which baseball has a cruel way of equalizing. He'll be fine and settle in to somewhere in between the last 2 years. Its not really uncommon for guys to slowly have their fastball decrease through their mid 20's.

Here is an interesting article:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/articl...eball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

One mile per hour of fastball velocity is worth a fifth to a third of a run of run prevention, Mike Fast found before the Houston Astros hired him away from writing. On average, even a 22-24 year old is already losing a half tick on the gun every year, and it's hard for a modest improvement in command to undo that loss.

Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png
Click to expand...

Nonsense. What's wrong with Teheran is that he's throwing meatballs. Where his pitches are usually crisp, catching the edges of the plate, darting with movement down low in the zone he's right now throwing more than his share of rolling sliders, belt-high changeups and four seamers bisecting the plate.

While I think the study and research that you cite is interesting and may have some general applicability, I'm more interested in this pitcher right now in real life, not in a regression analysis. And I have a terminal degree and a near perfect math SAT back before the earth cooled, I can understand what you're saying just fine.

I do agree pitchers lose speed every year. The thesis that you can't make that up with command or other attributes is absurd, otherwise you wouldn't have pitchers in their 30s.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Nonsense. What's wrong with Teheran is that he's throwing meatballs. Where his pitches are usually crisp, catching the edges of the plate, darting with movement down low in the zone he's right now throwing more than his share of rolling sliders, belt-high changeups and four seamers bisecting the plate.

While I think the study and research that you cite is interesting and may have some general applicability, I'm more interested in this pitcher right now in real life, not in a regression analysis. And I have a terminal degree and a near perfect math SAT back before the earth cooled, I can understand what you're saying just fine.

I do agree pitchers lose speed every year. The thesis that you can't make that up with command or other attributes is absurd, otherwise you wouldn't have pitchers in their 30s.
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So, you now don't believe its velocity related, but more to do with location?
 
yeezus said:
Solid post.
I will say though, Julio is adamant he's not at all hurt and feels great, and says he would not pitch thru injury. Is he lying or being misleading? totally possible. but he's been pretty insistent that he's not hurt at all. his velo is certainly more inconsistent though. we still have to keep in mind he's really young, and young pitchers notoriously struggle to find consistency.
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Everything about Julio screams integrity, I think. He's just a solid guy. And I think all pitchers go to the post hurting from time to time, otherwise they're J.D. Drew or somebody. It's the old adage that there's a difference between "hurt" and "injury." You don't want to hurt yourself or your team by trying to pitch through an injury, but if you've got that competitive makeup and are a team guy and hate stealing money, if your knee is barking a little bit but not dangling, you go. And maybe it catches 4-5 times/game when you push off the rubber.

Least that's my best guess. Back to the OP. Trade? Oh, hell, no.
 
gilesfan said:
So, you now don't believe its velocity related, but more to do with location?
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As I suggested originally, Ace, the slower velocity caused the four seamer I was citing to run across the middle of the plate rather than staying buried on Crawford's hands.

Velocity means speed plus vector. If it's just mph you're interested in, you can just call it "speed."

Hey, as much fun as this is, I gotta get back to work, logging calls and visits so my firm's metrics experts can dice that data 6,000 ways and determine what I could have told them with a few moments of observation.

You can dissect as many bumblebees as you want trying to figure out why they can fly - they shouldn't - but in the end, you wind up with a bunch of dead bumblebees.

Carry on.
 
And to suggest this is just simply Teheran's luck catching up with him isn't really correct. It's not just "bad luck" for him this year. He isn't commanding his pitches, leading to more walks, less Ks, and more hits against.
 
I would trade Julio just because his mechanics are too inconsistent. The same reason the Braves tried to alter his mechanics to save his career long term will hurt him like it did Tommy Hanson.
 
Heywood said:
I would trade Julio just because his mechanics are too inconsistent. The same reason the Braves tried to alter his mechanics to save his career long term will hurt him like it did Tommy Hanson.
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That is certainly a concern because he was among the worst pitchers in baseball when they changed his mechanics.
 
gilesfan said:
That is certainly a concern because he was among the worst pitchers in baseball when they changed his mechanics.
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Yeah his numbers in AAA were bad when they tried to change his mechanics. He went back to his old and is pitching fine but long term I can see why they tried to take preemptive measures to fix it before he made it to the show. I think he's going to turn out to be a case similar to Hanson. Not enough fluidity.
 
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