True talent of Braves MLB pitchers

[Enscheff]

xwOBA is scaled to reflect an average pitcher/hitter allowing/producing a value of about .320. Setting .320 to an overall grade of 50 and loading up the xwOBA values for the entire league allows us to come up with a way to grade pitchers overall. That scale for SPs is roughly as follows:

80 = .260 (Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw, Kluber)
70 = .280
60 = .300
50 = .320
40 = .340
30 = .360
20 = .380

BP guys have the luxury of going harder over shorter bursts, so their top end of the scale is even better than SPs, but the low end seems to be about the same. The scale for BP arms is roughly:

80 = .230 (Jansen, Kimbrel, Miller)
70 = .260
60 = .290
50 = .320
40 = .340
30 = .360
20 = .380

Below is the xwOBA of all the Braves pitchers. Some of these are obviously very small samples, so anyone with less than 100 ABs has an *:

1 A.J. Minter* 0.216
2 Dan Winkler* 0.248
3 Akeel Morris* 0.275
4 Sam Freeman 0.277
5 Rex Brothers* 0.290
6 Arodys Vizcaino 0.295
7 Jim Johnson 0.303
8 Jaime Garcia 0.303
9 Jose Ramirez 0.305
10 R.A. Dickey 0.315
11 Luiz Gohara* 0.316
12 Mike Foltynewicz 0.326
13 Julio Teheran 0.326
14 Jason Hursh* 0.329
15 Ian Krol 0.336
16 Sean Newcomb 0.342
17 Lucas Sims 0.343
18 Eric O'Flaherty* 0.348
19 Jason Motte 0.351
20 Josh Collmenter* 0.352
21 Bartolo Colon 0.354
22 Chaz Roe* 0.357
23 Luke Jackson 0.366
24 Matt Wisler 0.381
25 Max Fried* 0.391
26 Aaron Blair* 0.506

Dicky, Folty and Teheran have formed a set of roughly grade 50 #4 SPs. Gohara shows promise. Garcia was actually the best SP the Braves have had this year. The rest are uninspiring.

As far as BP arms go, there appear to be quite a few keepers. Freeman has been the best story in the BP this year. Early returns on Minter and Winkler look very promising. Early returns on Morris and Brothers are interesting. Viz, Ramirez and JJ (as much as folks hate him) are above average BP arms. The rest can probably be trimmed away, but 6 average or better arms in the BP is a solid start for 2018. I don't see any reason for the Braves to add to the BP this offseason.

 

[nsacpi]

Interesting about the relievers. I think with relievers results can often be misleading due to sample size issues. This kind of approach complements other data to overcome these small sample issues. It does make sense to me to bring back Viz, Ramirez, JJ, Freeman, Minter, Brothers, Morris and Winkler as the core of the bullpen. I think we have the raw ingredients for a good pen.

I also warmed to Jaime Garcia as the season went along and it is interesting that this way of looking at pitchers also credits him. I'd offer him a 2-year deal with an option this offseason. 13M or so AAV.

 

[Enscheff]

Interesting about the relievers. I think with relievers results can often be misleading due to sample size issues. This kind of approach complements other data to overcome these small sample issues. It does make sense to me to bring back Viz, Ramirez, JJ, Freeman, Minter, Brothers, Morris and Winkler as the core of the bullpen. I think we have the raw ingredients for a good pen.

I also warmed to Jaime Garcia as the season went along and it is interesting that this way of looking at pitchers also credits him. I'd offer him a 2-year deal with an option this offseason. 13M or AAV.

I would like to see the young BP arms marked with * (Minter, Winkler, Morris, Brothers) get a lot of the innings for the rest of the year.

Minter may prove to be the next Venters.

 

[jcc03004]

Interesting about the relievers. I think with relievers results can often be misleading due to sample size issues. This kind of approach complements other data to overcome these small sample issues. It does make sense to me to bring back Viz, Ramirez, JJ, Freeman, Minter, Brothers, Morris and Winkler as the core of the bullpen. I think we have the raw ingredients for a good pen.

I also warmed to Jaime Garcia as the season went along and it is interesting that this way of looking at pitchers also credits him. I'd offer him a 2-year deal with an option this offseason. 13M or so AAV.

Ummm Brothers has been pretty bad. For lefties Freeman and minter, plus hopefully an acquisition of another reliable lefty to pair with them.

 

[nsacpi]

Ummm Brothers has been pretty bad. For lefties Freeman and minter, plus hopefully an acquisition of another reliable lefty to pair with them.

Brothers has had poor results. When sample sizes are small, results can be misleading.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

JJ is the enigma... his stuff should produce better results. I don't like him as a closer, but he should be a good 7/8 guy.

Blair is just bad.

 

[Chico]

Ummm Brothers has been pretty bad. For lefties Freeman and minter, plus hopefully an acquisition of another reliable lefty to pair with them.

I doubt Brothers goes anbywhere cause he has an option left and we can stash him in AAA to start the season.

I'm thinking Lindgren is the other lefty with Minter and Freeman is sold high

 

[Enscheff]

Ummm Brothers has been pretty bad. For lefties Freeman and minter, plus hopefully an acquisition of another reliable lefty to pair with them.

Misunderstanding results and relying on the "eye test" is precisely why advanced stats were invented.

His FIP and xFIP are at 3.65 and 3.70 this season, which are both right around his career marks. He has the makings of an average BP arm, which obviously isn't anything to be excited about, but he isn't terrible...certainly not 8.50 ERA terrible.