Trump vs Harris debate

Just take the questions from the moderator altogether. Both sides know the opponents weak area, so let each candidate turn in their question to the opponent. Each one gets 3-5 questions.
 
Tapate50 said:
Everyone knows the Dems wouldn’t do anything with Fox. They’d just refuse like all the times before
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It would be incredibly damaging if Harris had to face real questioning and not getting continously bailed out by the moderators and they understand this which is why they ran from the idea of three debates becuase one of them was Fox.
 
chop2chip said:
I thought it was Tulsi who was prepping Donald for this debate, not Lauren
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I'm certainly not confident that Trump's personnel judgement has gotten any better

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I was surprised that he wouldn't even look in her direction. And at the beginning it looked like he tried to avoid shaking her hand. She had the dominant and more confident body language.

She was prepared with plans on how to bait him. He was as usual.

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Trump spoke to the voters he needs to win better than Harris did - Debate is going to end up being a big win for Trump electorally.
 
Carp said:
Unless the debate has shifted her polling numbers by 2-3% in each swing state, she would not win today. In the swing states, Trump basically only needs to pull PA, GA, and NC to win the election. Maine and Nebraska have split districts that could potentially change that, but those districts tend be pretty partisan. Currently, Harris is losing in PA, AZ, NC, and GA. And the leads she holds in MI, WI, and NV are paper thin, with the last 2 elections suggesting she can't win those states without at least a 4% polling lead in each of those states.

We'll see if the debate changes that. I doubt it does.
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The poll aggregates I see this morning have Harris up by 2 in NC and PA, and by 1 in NV. I am confident Trump's not going to win.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

These guys have only been wrong with their prediction twice. 2004 which was a true toss up and 2016 which everybody missed.
 
VirginiaBrave said:
The poll aggregates I see this morning have Harris up by 2 in NC and PA, and by 1 in NV. I am confident Trump's not going to win.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/
https://www.electoral-vote.com/

These guys have only been wrong with their prediction twice. 2004 which was a true toss up and 2016 which everybody missed.
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They are using morning consult for PA which is laughable. Their last poll in 2020 had Biden up 9 and the actual result is 1.2% (with cheating). If they are wrong by that much again its Trumps state.
 
VirginiaBrave said:
The poll aggregates I see this morning have Harris up by 2 in NC and PA, and by 1 in NV. I am confident Trump's not going to win.

https://www.electoral-vote.com/
https://www.electoral-vote.com/

These guys have only been wrong with their prediction twice. 2004 which was a true toss up and 2016 which everybody missed.
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I've never even heard of this site. And the website looks it was developed in 2006. And worse yet, it is directly sponsored by Democrats. How convenient.

RCP has consistently been the most transparent and most accurate among these poll tracking sites. 538 isn't bad either, but, imo, their formula assigns to much weight into national polls when they calculatr a states average polling. That seems silly to me.

On RCP, Trump is tied with Harris in PA, but leading or tied in 6 of the 7 most recent polls, slight leads in GA and NC and decent size lead in AZ.

And obviously this ignores the fact that in 2020, Biden had a 5+ point lead in PA and other swing states leading up to the election and yet he won nearly all of those states by barely even 1%. That's a 4 point delta (and in Wisconsin is was nearly an 8 point delta). Hillary similarly held a 3.6% advantage in polling 2016 and lost PA. The same was true for other swing states.

Suffice to say, if Harris doesn't have an average polling lead of 3% of better in the swing states, she is likely to lose those states.
 
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According to 538, 10 of the last 12 polls reported have PA either tied (6 polls) or Trump leading (4 polls). Again, Kamala has a lot of ground to gain in PA.
 
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The biggest thing that will come out of last nights debate is the system is rigged and everyone understands it and wants a change.
 
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