Tucker Davidson's stuff

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Davidson is now at 160 pitches thrown in 2021. Let's see how they are shaped.

FA: 93.1 mph (Grade 55), 1.0" xMov (Grade 30), 8.5" zMov (Grade 45)

Decent velocity, but very straight and pretty flat. His 2021 FA spin rate of 2077 rpm is a good bit below MLB average of 2317. This is a pitch that will most ikely play worse than it's above average velocity as a result. He may be better served switching to a SI, but the lack of horizontal movement may limit the effectiveness of that pitch too.

SL: 87.1 mph (Grade 60), 2.2" xMov (Grade 50), -0.6" zMov (Grade 60)

This is a good hard SL with depth. This is verging on a plus pitch, especially if he can locate it to the backfoot of RHH.

CU: 79.1 mph (Grade 50), 5.2" xMov (Grade 55), -6.8" zMov (Grade 60)

Another above average breaking ball verging on a plus pitch.

Command: 4.63 BB/9 (Grade Not Good)

He was very clearly spent at the end of his last start, and he has shown better control in the minors, so I wouldn't put a lot of stock into his BB rates right now. FG grades his present and future command at below average, so I wouldn't hold my breath.

Overall:

Take Max Fried, remove 1-2 mph off the heater, reduce the spin on the breaking stuff by 300 rpm, and take away a good chunk of athleticism, and I think Tucker Davidson is what you'd be left with. That's a back end guy or BP arm. The breaking stuff puts his floor as an effective option vs LHH. He'd be awesome piggybacked with a RHP who forced the opposition to stack the lineup with LHH.
 
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Agreed. He's just a guy, nothing to get excited about. The reports of his velocity jumps were exaggerated as usual.
 
1-2 win players are valuable, especially if the manager is able to utilize them properly so their impact can be magnified.

Unfortunately, Snit proved last night (and many nights prior) he is incapable of utilizing Davidson correctly.
 
Enscheff said:
1-2 win players are valuable, especially if the manager is able to utilize them properly so their impact can be magnified.

Unfortunately, Snit proved last night (and many nights prior) he is incapable of utilizing Davidson correctly.
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Is he valuable enough to get us a good rh reliever or cOF?
 
atl717 said:
Agreed. He's just a guy, nothing to get excited about. The reports of his velocity jumps were exaggerated as usual.
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Curious to see a comparison to Smyly's stuff because Smyly looks like a JAG to me and they spent $11 million on him.

Davidson may be someone who has to pitch backwards to some extent with the breaking stuff setting up the fastball. I noticed yesterday that he rarely came inside to any hitter LH or RH and that's probably wise given the nature of his fastball.

I agree with Enscheff in that, used correctly, Davidson can be a useful piece here or elsewhere.
 
50PoundHead said:
Curious to see a comparison to Smyly's stuff because Smyly looks like a JAG to me and they spent $11 million on him.
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As this spin rate/substance correlation has been more fully revealed and perhaps about to be more fully enforced, I'm going to venture a guess that, like Smyly, Gausman and Bauer and Cole and a bunch of other guys may have more trouble getting guys out. Because outside of his 29 innings in 2020 in SF on which Anthopoulos based his incredibly prescient decision to give Smyly $11,000,000, Smyly has been a JAG. An oft-injured JAG, at that.
 
NYCBrave said:
Seems like an ideal candidate to sell high on in a trade to improve the team this year
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The problem with trading away all these #4 (or better on good days) guys is that you suddenly become just like all these other teams who have 1 or 2 guys that ACTUALLY belong in an MLB rotation.

Instead of getting rid of those guys, how about hiring someone that knows how to use them correctly? That's not specifically directed at Snitker either.
 
clvclv said:
The problem with trading away all these #4 (or better on good days) guys is that you suddenly become just like all these other teams who have 1 or 2 guys that ACTUALLY belong in an MLB rotation.

Instead of getting rid of those guys, how about hiring someone that knows how to use them correctly? That's not specifically directed at Snitker either.
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Fair enough. But then out of curiosity, what do you envision the rotation being next year? It seems we have a glut of these types at the high minors, who are quickly aging and losing value, who may never become a part of the rotation.
 
1. ?
2. Fried
3. Anderson
4. Ynoa
5. Davidson/Wilson/Wright/Vet Scrap heap guy

That is a solid rotation if you can get someone to be in the one spot that is a top 30 pitcher.

Maybe more realistically, if you can drop everyone down a spot and grab two guys that are top 50-75 then you have a strong rotation.
 
NYCBrave said:
Fair enough. But then out of curiosity, what do you envision the rotation being next year? It seems we have a glut of these types at the high minors, who are quickly aging and losing value, who may never become a part of the rotation.
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I've teetered on the edge for a couple years now because the old-timer in me tends to want to hold out to see if guys can reach their ceilings as they learn on the job. From an organizational (or GM) standpoint, I just don't think you can afford to do that anymore - when your window is open. When you're in a position to win, the job has to stop being about DEVELOPMENT. Morton isn't an "Ace" anymore, and I personally never saw Fried as one to begin with - he's really good, but he's not deGrom/Scherzer/Cole/Verlander/Glasnow good, so stop trying to make him something he's not.

I'm finally all-in on the Rays' way of building a staff - cover the innings effectively, and don't worry so much about WHEN someone pitches instead of that they pitch well. Stop trying to make guys #1s, #2s, set up guys, and Closers and put 12 guys on the staff that can get through a MLB lineup AT LEAST one time and just rotate them all and keep them fresh. Fried gets to go through a lineup twice, Anderson gets to do the same, and others get the chance to EARN that opportunity, but stop worrying what inning who pitches. Line up your 2-3 guys that you're going to let go as deep as they can as your #1 and #2 and prepare everyone else on the staff to give you 3 innings at least twice a week and piggyback them all.

The reason our staff isn't effective is because we've developed way too many guys that are only capable of giving you ONE INNING the vast majority of the time - Smith, Martin, Minter, Matzek, Jackson, etc. - and there's absolutely no flexibility because Snitker only knows how to use Pitchers that way. We constantly hear about who's "unavailable today" because he uses them 3 days in a row and has to give them days off at the most inopportune times. Get the Ynoa/Newk/Wilson/Wright/Davidson/Muller/etc. group to the point that you trust them all to get through a lineup ONCE, and rotate the entire staff every third day - not just the starters every 5-6 days. I'm OK with carrying a couple of specialist/Closer types for really tight games, but that's what our entire pen has become.

I don't have the type of answer I think you're looking for because I don't think that's the way to do things anymore. I guess my "rotation" would have maybe three guys you want to try to get through a lineup twice and look something like...

1.) Fried
2.) Morton/Soroka/other starter-type
3.) Anderson

4.) Mix/Match
5.) Mix/Match

Those last two days are decided strictly based on who matches up best with who you're playing that day and who happens to be freshest.
 
msstate7 said:
I've only saw vodnik one time (and he left early), but he was sitting 90-91. That's concerning to me
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Seen him plenty. I think I have video somewhere but he was hurt when you saw him. That's why he went on the DL. He usually suits 94+. I don't think he'll be an option next year anyway.
 
Hulavol said:
Next year we should see the debut of Vodnik-
Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Ynoa
Vodnik

That’s damn strong
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Ynoa has a ton of regression coming, Vodnik is not likely to be an effective starter next year and is a huge question mark with little upper level minor experience, and Fried/Soroka have major injury flags... there's no way you can say that's damn strong... lmao
 
Saw this tweet about Davidson's stuff... they make it sound like after last night's start that his stuff is grading out a bit better but admittedly I haven't really dove into the statcast/pitching analytics as much as I have with offensive players so it all sounds a little foreign to me. Did his stuff show an uptick in improvement this last start Enscheff?

[TW]1402849861746061314[/TW]
 
zbhargrove said:
Saw this tweet about Davidson's stuff... they make it sound like after last night's start that his stuff is grading out a bit better but admittedly I haven't really dove into the statcast/pitching analytics as much as I have with offensive players so it all sounds a little foreign to me. Did his stuff show an uptick in improvement this last start Enscheff?

[TW]1402849861746061314[/TW]
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Damn, if that's legit, this kid might be special
 
Didn't watch last night but watched him against the Nationals. Like so many guys, it's all going to depend on whether he can throw quality strikes with a low-to-mid 90s fastball. His breaking stuff looks legit and the analysis--at least at this point--bears that out.
 
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