Tucker Davidson's stuff

His breaking stuff is definitely good, but I see they have some metric called “lateness of break” which makes me skeptical of the entire analytical package until I see what that is supposed to mean.

I didn’t get to watch much of the game last night, and it’s possible his stuff ticked up last night.
 
I don't see more than a good 5th starter when I see him pitch.

If he went through the order 2x and Wright game behind him 1x through I think you'd get really good results.

A lot of this will depend on the rule changes that happen next off season. His FB isn't great. I don't think he is going to overpower. And if people can sit on the breaking stuff we'll see.

I said it with Ynoa, if Davidson or Ynoa prove to be high quality 5th starters, that is a big win. Everyone does not need to be a star or a bum.
 
zbhargrove said:
Saw this tweet about Davidson's stuff... they make it sound like after last night's start that his stuff is grading out a bit better but admittedly I haven't really dove into the statcast/pitching analytics as much as I have with offensive players so it all sounds a little foreign to me. Did his stuff show an uptick in improvement this last start Enscheff?

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Based on the 80 count for FF, they are using data from only his first 2 starts.

I have no idea what Rise% could mean, or how it differs from vertical movement, so I can't speak to that.

They claim he is in the top 15-20% in vertical movement on his breaking stuff, which seems accurate to me.

They claim the horizontal break on his pitches range from below average (CU) to awful (SL, FF).

So how do pitches with good vertical movement and poor horizontal movement end up being a top 1-2% pitches in all of baseball overall? Because of some "location" metric...that's measured after a few dozen pitches (we are talking a handful of pitches in any zone bucket)?

This QOPA stat seems pretty shaky to me, but again, I haven't dug into it at all. I certainly don't consider Davidson's breaking stuff elite. Plus, good, but not elite.

His current xwOBA of .324 points to him being an average #4 (2021 MLB average is .319). His xERA, FIP, and xFIP all suggest the 1.53 ERA is a mirage as well. Most of this is due to a microscopic .188 BABIP against him, and a palty 6.7% HR/FB rate, both of which are due for massive regression.

I'll stick with the values that have proven to be correct countless times in the past, but again, I don't know much about this QOPA metric. Perhaps it's the next best predictive stat, and I have some reading to do. If Davidson turns into a stud I'll be looking into it for sure.

It was definitely good to see him only issue 1 BB though. That's the biggest way guys can make their stuff play up.
 
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Honestly, I know we are bad for pitching now but I'd consider selling high on him. If he's the first or second player in a deal for a hangier I'd be down.
 
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