TUESDAY MINORS FINAL 6/27: Dawning of the Age of Maitan

Longenhagen is the best public prospect guy in the business. He spends more time scouting kids in person than every other list maker combined. During that time scouting, he is talking to real scouts, in person, about players and making contacts.

Notice how the MLBPipeline list of draft guys had something like 65 guys with a FV of 50? How is that useful in any way when their #100 prospect in the game (Gohara) is also a FV 50?

For comparison, FG had 2 guys at 60 (Braves got one of them), and 3 guys at 55, and 3 guys at 50. That is a list that's actually useful.
 
Gohara as a 60 shocks me, but that makes the Braves system pretty damn tasty.

He is right about Wright being right ahead of Allard/Soroka though.

Doesn't sound like he's too sure of that pitching order, says Wright is probably 3, but an argument can be made for Soroka/Allard/Gohara as well.

I think you can probably arrange that top group however you want to and not really be wrong. I'd still start with Albies/Acuna and then go from there.
 
From that same chat today from Longenhagen about Pache:

Buff

12:22

Shed Long, Bryan Reynolds,and Christian Pache all got consideration for you preseason top 100. Add Taylor Trammell to that list. Top 100 by now? Who looks best?

Eric A Longenhagen

12:23

Pache probably has the highest ceiling of that group, Reynolds struggled early and made adjustments.

Pache having the highest ceiling compared to Trammell is nice to hear as well. It'll be pretty great if Pache can slide right into CF to replace Ender right as or right before his contract is up in 2020/2021.
 
Doesn't sound like he's too sure of that pitching order, says Wright is probably 3, but an argument can be made for Soroka/Allard/Gohara as well.

I think you can probably arrange that top group however you want to and not really be wrong. I'd still start with Albies/Acuna and then go from there.

I'm not going to argue with any ranking of Allard/Soroka/Wright, but nobody is going to convince me that Gohara is in that group right now. I don't care how much I respect the prospect writer that states it. He is older than Allard and Soroka, has had 2 left arm issues already, is already fat at the age of 20, and is being equal-performed by both younger guys.

That could change with ~75 more quality IP at AA, but right now, Gohara is clearly behind The Trio for me. He is definitely #4 though (if you exclude Newk due to graduation).
 
Gosh, that sounds downright posi-Brave, you derper.

Saying a good thing is good doesn't make someone a pozzy.

Twisting every single event and every small sample fluke into the next great thing is what makes someone a pozzy.

I haven't heard a single pozzy-Barve mention TD, Riley or Cumberland in over a week. You know why? Their hot streaks ended and the pozzies have moved on to whatever shiny new thing gives them a boner now.
 
Saying a good thing is good doesn't make someone a pozzy.

Twisting every single event and every small sample fluke into the next great thing is what makes someone a pozzy.

I haven't heard a single pozzy-Barve mention TD, Riley or Cumberland in over a week. You know why? Their hot streaks ended and the pozzies have moved on to whatever shiny new thing gives them a boner now.

Lighten up, Nancy. Laugh a little. It was only a joke.

P.S. Sims is obviously the next Kershaw after his last outing.
 
SK
1:29 Jae-Gyun Hwang 's release date is coming up soon - he's not exactly a 'prospect' but how do you think his skills will translate in the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen
1:29 Haven't seen him, scouts I've talked to who have think he's a bench guy.

Hwang is hitting .287/.333/.476 (.810 OPS) in the PCL. Maybe the Braves add him on July 1 if the Giants release him? Can't hurt to give him a look until Freeman is ready.

I should have seen him when the River Cats team came to town.
 
Gohara as a 60 shocks me, but that makes the Braves system pretty damn tasty.

He is right about Wright being right ahead of Allard/Soroka though.

I actually read that as maybe Gohara, Allard, Sorkoka have an argument (new nickname for this group is GAS, I demand it).

So I think EL is saying 60: Swanson, Albies, Acuna, Wright. 55: GAS.

For me it's good to see a non-Braves homer have Soroka as high as 55. I just haven't read anyone non-braves break him down and say this guy is more than a back end guy. I've seen lots of braves folks gush.
 
For me it's good to see a non-Braves homer have Soroka as high as 55. I just haven't read anyone non-braves break him down and say this guy is more than a back end guy. I've seen lots of braves folks gush.

Not sure what scouting reports you've been looking at, pretty much everyone has had Soroka as at least a middle of the rotation/#3 starter type for a while now.
 
I actually read that as maybe Gohara, Allard, Sorkoka have an argument (new nickname for this group is GAS, I demand it).

So I think EL is saying 60: Swanson, Albies, Acuna, Wright. 55: GAS.

For me it's good to see a non-Braves homer have Soroka as high as 55. I just haven't read anyone non-braves break him down and say this guy is more than a back end guy. I've seen lots of braves folks gush.

Here is a primer on what these FV values mean:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/

A MLB 55 guy is a 2.5 WAR #3/4 SP.

A guy in AA with a FV of 55 like Soroka likely had a half grade or a full grade knocked off for risk, so he is being projected as a 60/65 at the MLB level...a 3-4 WAR good #3 or fringe #2.

Someone like Albies getting a 60 in AAA has been downgraded very little due to risk. This means he is projected to be a 60+ guy in the MLB, which is a 3-4 WAR everyday player.

Someone like Maitan who gets a FV 55 before even taking a professional AB has had a grade or a grade and a half knocked off for risk. He profiles as a 70 MLB player, which is a 5+ WAR all star stud.

That's why Wright getting a FV 60 as a college pitcher is so exciting. He likely projects as a 65-70 at the MLB level, which is a solid 4-5 WAR #2 SP.
 
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