TUESDAY MINORS FINAL 7/9/19; Inciarte strong day in rehab

Something I just noticed about waters is his "spray chart" if you will...

A: 43.6 pull, 21.4 center, 35.0 oppo
A+: 39.6 pull, 23.1 center, 37.4 oppo
AA: 42.4 pull, 21.0 center, 36.6 oppo

That seems impressive to me

He's clearly been helped by BABIP, but his hr/fb at 6.8% seems a little unlucky with his pop
 
On his babip, he has 999 milb AB with a .405 babip. At what point is it not just luck? Clearly he won't be a .450 babip guy, but maybe he really is a high .300s
 
nsacpi said:
its not so hard to understand...BABIP is the story...he's a good prospect but once you understand that it becomes easier to place him
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I just don't understand how he's been able to maintain such a ridiculous BABIP for so long. He maintained a .400+ BABIP over 200 plate appearances his rookie year, a .362 over 500 plate appearances during his second year (still high but less ridiculous), and now a .454 over as he's approaching 400 plate appearances this year.

He has just been so lucky to start off his career. Its hard to know exactly what kind of player he's gonna be.
 
msstate7 said:
Something I just noticed about waters is his "spray chart" if you will...

A: 43.6 pull, 21.4 center, 35.0 oppo
A+: 39.6 pull, 23.1 center, 37.4 oppo
AA: 42.4 pull, 21.0 center, 36.6 oppo

That seems impressive to me

He's clearly been helped by BABIP, but his hr/fb at 6.8% seems a little unlucky with his pop
Click to expand...

Seeing that spray chart makes me wonder if his BABIP could be due to him being poorly scouted by other teams. Maybe they are consistently shifting on him and he's beating it by going oppo 1/3rd of the time? I've only seen him play once so I don't know if this is it for sure, but it seems plausible.
 
Guys are able to sustain pretty high BABIPs in the minors because defenses suck and scouting reports don't really exist.

Top end sustainable MLB BABIP over ~1000 PAs is about .350-360.

It's plausible Waters is one of those guys, but not exactly probable.
 
Enscheff said:
Guys are able to sustain pretty high BABIPs in the minors because defenses suck and scouting reports don't really exist.

Top end sustainable MLB BABIP over ~1000 PAs is about .350-360.

It's plausible Waters is one of those guys, but not exactly probable.
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Profile isn't terrible for it, but always best not to assume the outlier.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I just don't understand how he's been able to maintain such a ridiculous BABIP for so long. He maintained a .400+ BABIP over 200 plate appearances his rookie year, a .362 over 500 plate appearances during his second year (still high but less ridiculous), and now a .454 over as he's approaching 400 plate appearances this year.

He has just been so lucky to start off his career. Its hard to know exactly what kind of player he's gonna be.
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Acuna BABIPed over .400 in the minors in 2017. Keep that in mind in projecting Waters' BABIP once he reaches the majors.
 
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Enscheff said:
Plugging in expected K%, BB%, and ISO numbers for Waters gives 2 matches in 2018:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/s...range|0.24|0.26,ISO|range|.150|.160,PA|gt|400

Derek Dietrich: .265/.330/.421 with a .336 BABIP
Gorkys Hernandez: .234/.285/.391 with a .285 BABIP

I think one line shows Water's likely production with good BABIP luck, while the other shows his likely production with poor BABIP luck.
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He's probably going to be an ok cheap option to play right and bat 7th or 8th in our lineup starting in 2021.
 
nsacpi said:
I'm happy to take under .340 on Waters' BABIP in the majors. You can name the years and any other terms.
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I'm not betting on a guy's babip that I don't even know when he'll be up. Steamer will bet you though... they say .351
 
nsacpi said:
its not so hard to understand...BABIP is the story...he's a good prospect but once you understand that it becomes easier to place him
Click to expand...

I think this is oversimplification.

I can't recall a scout saying he can't hit. Everyone seems to think he's a hitter. He's still very young.

Yes BABIP won't be that high in MLB. But he also gets to hit with the MLB ball. He's likely to grow into the power. Guy is a stud but he hasn't been a pro as long as Pache.
 
There is more power coming for Waters, but I'm not sure the Braves necessarily want to break in Pache and Waters at the same time for the offense's sake. Seems like Pache is the best bet to arrive first.

Moving one of them still might make sense if a more proven option is acquired in the OF.
 
msstate7 said:
I'm not betting on a guy's babip that I don't even know when he'll be up. Steamer will bet you though... they say .351
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Cool Steamer projects him to have a higher ML BABIP than Freeman or Acuna. That is interesting. It is something I've observed in the past. If a prospect has a really great half season or so in the upper minors, the projection systems tend to go nuts. I vividly remember that about Matt Wieters after his 2008 season in the minors, which included a slash line of .365/.460/.625 in 250 AA PAs. If something looks too good to be true 99 times out of 100 it is too good to be true. Maybe Waters will be that 1 in 100.
 
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It’d be one thing if Waters was running a slightly elevated BABIP and didn’t strike out much (like what Ozzie Albies did in AA when there was a period where he was running a BA around .400 on the season down there 3 years ago), but he’s running one that is .454, and strikes out a lot. Oh, and it’s getting close to 400 PAs to boot.

It’s one of the most mystifying things, but despite the numbers here, he still has stuff to improve on before we make a judgment on who he is. As a right-handed hitter he’s weaker (which isn’t as big of a deal than the left-handed side but still is a deal) and he still needs to get better vs off speed. The BABIP suggests no, but from what I’m hearing, he needs AAA like right now because of his weakness vs off speed.

Until we really know about why he’s weak vs off speed, I think it’s hard to pass any judgment at all. But the call here is easy. He’s not going to be up next year until August if he’s up at all next year unless he pulls a 2019 Riley (major improvements in his weaknesses at AAA) and an outfielder gets injured as the Braves will pick Markakis’ option up.
 
Speaking of the devil, Riley had a BABIP last year of about .390 (AA and AAA) and this year its around 300 (AAA and majors). Waters BABIP numbers this year need to be considered in that context.
 
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