JohnAdcox
Brian Jordan's New BFF
Nope.
Valuation for Various Braves Assets
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Nope.
I think you are pretty spot-on with those costs for each pitcher. I think Inciarte would have to replace Smith in your Sale package though. And I further agree that I would not pay those prices for a pitcher to help the Braves miss the playoffs on 2017.
Another opinion on the cost for Sale:
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY
12:20 What do the Braves have that the White Sox might want for Chris Sale?
Eno Sarris
12:21 To get Sale it would probably cost Inciarte and Albies and Newcomb and Soroka? That's the best the Braves have to offer, probably, and it gives the White Sox cost-controlled CF, 2B, and two shots at an ace pitcher.
That is a HUGE package. It literally makes me cringe. If the Braves lose Inciarte and Albies to add Sale, they haven't actually gotten any better. And to make it even worse they give up 2 potential Aces for the privilege of a lateral improvement to the 2017 team as a whole? No thanks!
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
No one will trade that much for any of those three. The cost will be less or they won't get traded.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
No one is going to give up that much
I'm sure people said the same things about the proposed Tex and Miller deals that the Braves were involved in.
The only way I would entertain giving up Inciarte + Albies is if it brought back Sale + Frazier (obviously additional [lesser] talent would be included on both sides of the deal) ... because at least then it's a move that clearly positions Atlanta to win in 2016. Adding Sale alone doesn't quite do that. That being said, I don't want to give up Albies and Inciarte at all and would prefer a deal revolving around arms like Newcomb/Fried/Soroka/Blair/Folty/etc. I highly doubt that would move the needle from Chicago's point of view.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Two stupid moves don't really move the needle for me. I just don't see someone giving up a 4 war MLB player and 2 top 50 prospects close to ready, plus a near 100 prospect on top of that..
Not all teams will value Ender as a 4 WAR player since he is defense first. The Braves, for example, almost certainly don't.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I think some of you are overthinking this. What's relevant is who else is pursuing Sale and what they will give up. Under no circumstances should we bid against ourselves. If we have the best offer and it's not enough for the White Sox then he stays with them. If another team outbids us then we move on to other options. This isn't about giving the white Sox 1 for 1 projected WAR. WAR projections heavily discount prospects because of the bust factor but doesn't seem to do the same for Sale. He could blow his arm out at any time. Look at the Miller trade, the value Sale is going to give isn't carved in stone, there is still plenty of risk.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I understand, but the fact is, he is still a ~4 WAR player. I just don't think any team will give up a package of one ~4 WAR player that is controlled and cheap for 4 years... (huge value).. top 15 prospect.. top 50 prospect and top 100 prospect... Not for any of those guys..
dak
Well-known member
Seems like most think my guesses are too high, which very well may be true.
I'm trying to think of comparable trades in the not too distant past that occurred in the offseason. Best I can come up with off the top of my head is the trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to KC from TB for Wil Myers, Jake Odirizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard. Shields was 31 and about a 4 WAR pitcher signed reasonably for two years. Wade Davis was viewed as more of a back of the rotation guy who had turned in a few 1 WAR seasons, but had a decent contract and some upside. Wil Myers was viewed as a top 5 prospect whose value seems most comparable to Dansby Swanson in our organization. Odirizzi was a top pitching prospect . . . best comp for us is probably Newcomb, though I think that might undersell Odirizzi's value a bit. Montgomery looks like he was a decent prospect . . . .maybe a top 200 guy. Many at the time felt KC overpaid, so let's take the leap that the package KC gave up for Davis + 2 years of Shields would have been enough to get 3 years of Chris Sale production. That's Swanson, Newcomb, and maybe a guy like Wiegel as the third piece? My sense is that offer would get us in the running for Sale.
I'm trying to think of comparable trades in the not too distant past that occurred in the offseason. Best I can come up with off the top of my head is the trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to KC from TB for Wil Myers, Jake Odirizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard. Shields was 31 and about a 4 WAR pitcher signed reasonably for two years. Wade Davis was viewed as more of a back of the rotation guy who had turned in a few 1 WAR seasons, but had a decent contract and some upside. Wil Myers was viewed as a top 5 prospect whose value seems most comparable to Dansby Swanson in our organization. Odirizzi was a top pitching prospect . . . best comp for us is probably Newcomb, though I think that might undersell Odirizzi's value a bit. Montgomery looks like he was a decent prospect . . . .maybe a top 200 guy. Many at the time felt KC overpaid, so let's take the leap that the package KC gave up for Davis + 2 years of Shields would have been enough to get 3 years of Chris Sale production. That's Swanson, Newcomb, and maybe a guy like Wiegel as the third piece? My sense is that offer would get us in the running for Sale.
Maybe not. But that's what the White Sox will hold out for. Since a team gave up #17, #60, and a 3-4 WAR player for a pitcher coming off of a 3 WAR season.
Sure, but the Braves should absolutely place that value on him in negotiations.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
thank god!!
You would hope that is the case.