nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Unless Prospect C is a very good prospect, it is with all due respect bad value.
Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates
- Thread starter msstate7
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Unless Prospect C is a very good prospect, it is with all due respect bad value.
Hmmmm. Is a trade where both sides don't think they got quite enough back the very definition of a fair trade?
(I know we want a win, not a fair trade, but seems interesting all the same).
Law would be drastically different from everyone else if that's the case. Moncada was from #3 to #7 on all the major sites preseason, and he's done nothing but rake. Mind you, Benintendi is probably top 10 on most mid season lists pretty easily at this point, but still.
Exactly. I'd be pretty pissed if the Braves gave up both JT and Inciarte and only received a package highlighted by Benintendi and Swihart. That's pretty poor value.
sturg33
I
Agreed, I personally think Benintendi is going to be a total stud, but even so that's a poor deal. Even at his worst (this year really) Inciarte is a 2.5 WAR type guy just on defense alone. If Julio stays right around or below 3.0 ERA he'll be worth high 3s or low 4s WAR at least, so Benintendi would have to be insanely good to reach that value. Swihart has very little value at this point as a mediocre bat that can't play catcher.
I'd personally want Benintendi and Espinosa if we were sending both those guys, Beintendi+Kopech+another solid top 10 system prospect would be the absolute minimum it would take for the trade to be remotely even.
Yes, in fact, it is bad value. Despite Inciarte's poor season this far, he still holds quite a bit of value and is under control for 2.5 more years. It wasn't but 5 short months ago that he was one of the hottest names on the market with several teams calling us about him.
JT alone should net us a package headlined by Benintendi and Swihart at least. If Inciarte is included, Devers better be coming our way as well.
Interesting, Moncada at 12 is really low. Just looked at his list, kinda nuts he still has Crawford and Devers that high, Arcia as well really.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That would not be my definition of a fair trade. It is also a definition without operational significance since none of us get to find out what either side really thinks of the trade.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Inciarte is under control for 3.5 more years.
I've thought for a long time that Braves fans tend to overrate JT and that we should move him; and I've always thought a package centered around Beni + would be fine.
But I can't wrap my head around intelligent baseball folks who think that would be ripping the BoSox off; what am I missing here? Legit question, what are we seeing that they are not? What are they seeing that we're not? Are they worried that JT is just riding some type of hot-streak and is due for serious regression?
But I can't wrap my head around intelligent baseball folks who think that would be ripping the BoSox off; what am I missing here? Legit question, what are we seeing that they are not? What are they seeing that we're not? Are they worried that JT is just riding some type of hot-streak and is due for serious regression?
I stand corrected. That makes him even more valuable.
This pretty much. On FG WAR Julio is in a tie for like the 37th best pitcher (which is silly of course) because of his poor FIP. But there are concerns there, one being his really high HR rate, the other being his super low BABIP of .224 that really isn't sustainable. So if his BABIP goes closer to his career averages of .272 then many of those HRs are going to stop being solo shots and his ERA is going to jump a bit. So that's why none of them buy his season so far. They probably see him as more of a 2.5-3 WAR guy.
And by contrast Benintendi is looking good to be a low to mid .800s OPS guy with plus speed and positive defense. That's a 5+ WAR player, so given that they see him as legit it's easy to see why they think trading him for Julio is not smart.
However they are being dumb by going to far in the other direction on Julio, even if he regresses a bit he can still be a solid low 3 ERA pitcher, which has a ton of value with his contract. They are treating him like he is going to regress to his FIP and be a 3.6-3.7 ERA pitcher, which is kinda silly.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Actually, I need to correct myself. He is under control for 4.5 more years. Next year he'll be a super 2.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Whoa there. A 5+ WAR player?? I don't think so. It is possible, but that's an outcome with perhaps a 5% chance of happening.
It has a much higher chance of happening than that. There is a reason the guy is a top 15 prospect and has outstanding scouting grades. A .280/.370/.460ish slash line is a pretty reasonable expectation for him, and he has far more upside than that. Throw in decent CF defense and solid speed and he can get to 5 WAR.
I'm looking at it from the Red Sox' perspective. My point is that it wouldn't be an overpay from the Sox.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Take a list of the players ranked 10-20 by BA over the past ten years. A total of 100 players. How many of them do you think were 5+ WAR players. I assume you are referring to their average WAR numbers during the period of contractual control.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
97 and a half out of a 100.. just guessing here..