He's saying if you have the exact same teams otherwise, but one has five 3 WAR starting pitchers, and the other has three 5 WAR starting pitchers and two replacement level ones then the 5 WAR team will have a huge advantage in the playoffs. Which I think is pretty reasonable given the success teams with elite #1 and #2 starters have had in the postseason. It's of course no certainty and you have to have a decent team to back it up, but a number of teams have either made the WS or won it based mainly on the strengths of an elite TOR and solid bullpen. The Giants being good examples recently.
Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
He's saying if you have the exact same teams otherwise, but one has five 3 WAR starting pitchers, and the other has three 5 WAR starting pitchers and two replacement level ones then the 5 WAR team will have a huge advantage in the playoffs. Which I think is pretty reasonable given the success teams with elite #1 and #2 starters have had in the postseason. It's of course no certainty and you have to have a decent team to back it up, but a number of teams have either made the WS or won it based mainly on the strengths of an elite TOR and solid bullpen. The Giants being good examples recently.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think there is an enhanced awareness of the strike zone in the playoffs, by pitching, hitting and especially Umpiring. I think the most successful post season pitchers tend to be power pitchers who can get either called strikes or swinging strikes in the strike zone. There's no absolute though, just trends. If you take a guy like Glavine who needed to get his strikes outside the strike zone and relied on the change as his weapon of choice and throw them up against a bunch of free swinging hackers, he could still be successful. If he ran up against a patient team who was willing to force him to come over the plate, he struggled. And to a certain but lesser extent the same could be said for Maddux.
Smoltz however (along with Johnson, Schilling, Clemens, Martinez, Cone, etc.) was a power strike out guy who could get both swinging and called strikes that were clearly within the zone.
Correct. I threw the "1 in 14" comment in because it is a common line from Braves fans....because they only won 1 WS. I bet Giants fans don't think the playoffs are a crap shoot.
A team can be built for the postseason. To say otherwise is dumb. Sure, it won't guarantee anything, but it certainly increases your chances.
striker42
Well-known member
Building your team for the postseason can also decrease your chances of getting there.
Latest about Teheran from the guys at FG:
Greg: What would a Teheran to Boston trade look like?
Eric A Longenhagen: I obviously have no idea, but I’m not a big Teheran fan. If I’m Boston I could see myself giving up Sam Travis or someone of that ilk, a 45 FV type of player.
If the industry consensus is that Julio is only worth a 1BH prospect that isn't even in the top 100, I truly hope the Braves keep him....for the entirety of his contract.
Greg: What would a Teheran to Boston trade look like?
Eric A Longenhagen: I obviously have no idea, but I’m not a big Teheran fan. If I’m Boston I could see myself giving up Sam Travis or someone of that ilk, a 45 FV type of player.
If the industry consensus is that Julio is only worth a 1BH prospect that isn't even in the top 100, I truly hope the Braves keep him....for the entirety of his contract.
Really? How?
A 5/5/5/0/0 rotation is exactly the same number of WAR as a 3/3/3/3/3 rotation. Both total 15 wins.
How about a 3/2/2/0/0/0/0 BP vs a 1/1/1/1/1/1/1 BP? Total WAR of 7 for both.
Aren't you guys always saying "a win is a win"?
Wouldn't you rather take the first rotation and BP into the playoffs? I certainly would.
Fangraphs has lost their mind over Teheran. Honestly, after their top 10 Braves prospects from early this year, it looks like they may have lost their mind in general. Looks like they've been drinking their own Kool-Aid for too long and have lost all perspective. Yes, FG, you have figured out baseball. The rest of us are simply in awe of your ability to read statistics.
The idea that Teheran is worth just a 45 FV prospect defies reason. What a joke.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Hardy har har
It is baffling. They also just released 41-50 of their top 50 trade values. Teheran is listed at #45, one spot behind Sal Perez.
In their "Guaranteed Dollars" for Julio they list $37M, even though his actual guarantee is $27M due to the last year being an option. It's almost like they are intentionally overlooking data to justify downgrading his value.
Even using their incorrect values, they project Julio to produce 13.9 WAR at the cost of $37.3M ($2.7M per WAR), and Perez to produce 14.4 WAR for $46.5M ($3.2M per WAR).
How in the hell does that make Perez more valuable? Their disdain for Teheran is truly puzzling.
To be fair, you're talking about several different people's opinions. The guy who did the top 10 prospects isn't there anymore, and the guy who made that comment today is a prospect guy as well, so trade value questions aren't really his thing.
I've seen several of their other writers say a deal centered around Devers would be fair, which is a pretty reasonable unbiased opinion. They also put Teheran in the top 50 in trade value today, which would suggest he's worth more than a 45 FV prospect.
But if their 'prospect guys' are that out of touch with what a prospect is really worth, then what good are they in valuing prospects?
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
lmao, "the science does not agree with me thus it is dumb" that's like advertising for confirmation bias.
why is it so many baseball fans are both anti-intellectual and anti facts? what drives this neanderthalic thinking?
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
and I'm telling you that your odds of winning would not change one bit regardless of which rotation you took. the sample size of 3 series is simply too small to mean anything.
Disagreeing with you doesn't make someone anti-intellectual or anti-facts, you aren't some judge and jury of what is true or not true. Enscheff is actually one of the most stats and SABR oriented posters on this board really, which makes your comments particularly amusing here. And are you completely incapable of having someone disagree with you and not resorting to direct or indirect insults?
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
if he is he's doing it wrong. I am sick of dealing with such a group of fuddy duddy idiots. you pathetic morons are a disgrace to braves fans and I sincerely hope most of you die soon, and your offspring so you don't spread your ****ed up genes around. I don't have time to waste talking with idiots. sorry, I just don't, and boy are many of you grade A idiots. (I should have been clued in when the king of white trash stupid KB21 was here, that guy makes down's syndrome kids look brilliant)
so bye bye, and go **** yourselves
bravesnumberone
Well-known member
Wilbo?
This is funny. I work as a math tool software developer for a gaming company. I can assure you I conceptualize, write, and debug statistical algorithms every single day that make the silly equations behind baseball stats look like elementary school mathematics. I'm pretty sure I have an excellent grasp on the math behind the madness that is baseball analysis, and I feel I also know enough about the actual game of baseball (being an ex-D1 player myself) to blend some of the traditional views in where they are appropriate.
You're telling me the odds of winning a series wouldn't increase when you pitch 3 starting pitchers with 5 WAR talent instead of 3 guys with 3 WAR talent? Even when those guys are followed by a couple 2-3 WAR BP arms instead of a few 1 WAR guys? Seriously?
I can assure you, with 100% certainty, I am not "doing it wrong".
Oklahomahawk
Boras' Client
I already brought that up over on one of the other forums and he vehemently denied it.