Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates

[Southcack77]

But Fangraphs doesn't seem to be saying 'he's not an ace.' Of course that's a reasonable stance. They seem to be saying, 'Eh, he's not much of anything.'

I was a little surprised to see the trade value column is basically a ranking of active baseball players. Last year the #1 was trout so I don't think rating Teheran in the 40s is an insult.

I think if you look around the baseball media (and by extension to front office sources) the consensus is Teheran is middle back rotation starter on a good contract.

He's outperforming that I think.

 

[chop2chip]

I was a little surprised to see the trade value column is basically a ranking of active baseball players. Last year the #1 was trout so I don't think rating Teheran in the 40s is an insult.

I think if you look around the baseball media (and by extension to front office sources) the consensus is Teheran is middle back rotation starter on a good contract.

He's outperforming that I think.

I'm fine with the trade value ranking. The 45 FV prospect comment was just so stupid and Cameron has been oddly harsh onTeheran for a while.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I was a little surprised to see the trade value column is basically a ranking of active baseball players. Last year the #1 was trout so I don't think rating Teheran in the 40s is an insult.

I think if you look around the baseball media (and by extension to front office sources) the consensus is Teheran is middle back rotation starter on a good contract.

He's outperforming that I think.

Ridiculous.

 

[sturg33]

Apparently Coppy flat out said we're not trading Teheran in a recent interview with AJC...

I think it's clear other teams weren't giving us what we wanted.

I'm cool with not trading him but I note we didn't because we asked for an insanity package. I think it's far more likely that Teheran loses value than sustain or increase value

 

[DaneHill]

Teheran certainly didn't decrease his value during his appearance in the ASG. Good job, JT.

 

[thewupk]

Apparently Coppy flat out said we're not trading Teheran in a recent interview with AJC...

I think it's clear other teams weren't giving us what we wanted.

I'm cool with not trading him but I note we didn't because we asked for an insanity package. I think it's far more likely that Teheran loses value than sustain or increase value

Maybe in fans eyes. I think most teams see Julio as a #2 and are wanting to trade the appropriate parts to acquire a #2 pitcher. What really makes Julio valuable is the contract that he is on but I don't see teams wanting to give up that extra value for that. But Coppy is not wrong to use that as leverage and hold out for as much as possible. This is a case of Julio being more valuable to the Braves than another team.

Think about it from the Red Sox perspective. Sure they would love Julio this year and for those additional years. But they are primarily getting him for this season because they need help. And so would most other teams at the trade deadline. Why give up talent that could acquire ace talent when Julio doesn't bring back that performance.

Julios trade value would be at the highest in the offseason when a team would be planning for the long term and see Julio as a great fit for that contract.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Maybe in fans eyes. I think most teams see Julio as a #2 and are wanting to trade the appropriate parts to acquire a #2 pitcher. What really makes Julio valuable is the contract that he is on but I don't see teams wanting to give up that extra value for that. But Coppy is not wrong to use that as leverage and hold out for as much as possible. This is a case of Julio being more valuable to the Braves than another team.

Think about it from the Red Sox perspective. Sure they would love Julio this year and for those additional years. But they are primarily getting him for this season because they need help. And so would most other teams at the trade deadline. Why give up talent that could acquire ace talent when Julio doesn't bring back that performance.

Julios trade value would be at the highest in the offseason when a team would be planning for the long term and see Julio as a great fit for that contract.

I also think JT can increase his value. If he pitches to a ~3 ERA this year, then all these 'experts' will have to drop this hot streak nonsense..

 

[thewupk]

I also think JT can increase his value. If he pitches to a ~3 ERA this year, then all these 'experts' will have to drop this hot streak nonsense..

But he's pitched to around a 3 era before. The hot streak was the 8 game stretch where he took his era from 3.17 to 2.46 this season. He's at 2.96 right now. I honestly see him finishing somewhere in this neighborhood with a FIP half run to 3/4's higher. That seems to be about what his level is at.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

But he's pitched to around a 3 era before. The hot streak was the 8 game stretch where he took his era from 3.17 to 2.46 this season. He's at 2.96 right now. I honestly see him finishing somewhere in this neighborhood with a FIP half run to 3/4's higher. That seems to be about what his level is at.

I have read that some think he will regress to his FIP and be a 3.5 to 4 ERA pitcher. you continually here he will regress. I think he will end the year sub 3 era. and on a bad team with bad defense, that is really good.

 

[rawwr]

I have read that some think he will regress to his FIP and be a 3.5 to 4 ERA pitcher. you continually here he will regress. I think he will end the year sub 3 era. and on a bad team with bad defense, that is really good.

He has always outperformed his FIP, but never to this degree. I think it's fair to expect him to beat it by half a run, but not more than that, which would put him around a 3.5 ERA this year.

You point out that he's working with a bad defense, but his opposing BABIP this year is 40 points below his career average. To me that screams that he's getting lucky on balls in play, and when that regresses, his ERA is bound to go up.

 

[thewupk]

I have read that some think he will regress to his FIP and be a 3.5 to 4 ERA pitcher. you continually here he will regress. I think he will end the year sub 3 era. and on a bad team with bad defense, that is really good.

Well he has been lucky to a point this year. His BABIP is super low. If that starts to normalize and the homers continue then the ERA will balloon. I see a situation where his BABIP does start to rise but the homers decrease so that will even out while lowering his FIP. At this point in time I see his true talent level as a 3.5-3.75 FIP pitcher with an era around 3.

 

[smootness]

Well he has been lucky to a point this year. His BABIP is super low. If that starts to normalize and the homers continue then the ERA will balloon. I see a situation where his BABIP does start to rise but the homers decrease so that will even out while lowering his FIP. At this point in time I see his true talent level as a 3.5-3.75 FIP pitcher with an era around 3.

Then he should be valued as a 3 ERA SP...which is pretty much an ace.

 

[thewupk]

Then he should be valued as a 3 ERA SP...which is pretty much an ace.

Not in 2016. At least not imo. There are 17 qualified starters right now (including Julio) with a sub 3 era. I'd say anything around 2.6 to 2.7 ERA and below would be considered ace level in todays game.

 

[Tapate50]

Hasn't JT been pitching this well since the last half of last year?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Not in 2016. At least not imo. There are 17 qualified starters right now (including Julio) with a sub 3 era. I'd say anything around 2.6 to 2.7 ERA and below would be considered ace level in todays game.

I never have considered JT as a top 10 pitcher. I think he falls in the top 20, which means he would be about 10 -15 teams #1 starter. If you couple his performance with his contract value, then I think he becomes a top 10 pitcher. However, contract value is not as important to a lot of teams at the deadline. I personally think we just hold him and revisit his value in the offseason and possibly again next deadline.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Hasn't JT been pitching this well since the last half of last year?

If you go back to his start right after the Yankees debacle..

here is his line.

24 starts, 157.2 ip, 46 er, 41bb, 139k, 2.63 ERA..

 

[thewupk]

I never have considered JT as a top 10 pitcher. I think he falls in the top 20, which means he would be about 10 -15 teams #1 starter. If you couple his performance with his contract value, then I think he becomes a top 10 pitcher. However, contract value is not as important to a lot of teams at the deadline. I personally think we just hold him and revisit his value in the offseason and possibly again next deadline.

I mean it's semantics but to me there is a difference between being an ace and being able to be a #1 starter on certain teams. He's certainly our #1 starter but I don't consider him an ace. I agree with the rest of your statement.

 

[thewupk]

Hasn't JT been pitching this well since the last half of last year?

3.42 ERA in the 2nd half last year. That with a 3.2 era in 2013, 2.89 in 2014, and a 2.96 so far this year. I see that as his level right now. 2.9 to 3.4. Somewhere in that range. First half of last year was due to the knee injury imo. Pretty obvious at this point.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I mean it's semantics but to me there is a difference between being an ace and being able to be a #1 starter on certain teams. He's certainly our #1 starter but I don't consider him an ace. I agree with the rest of your statement.

I agree with you.. He is not an ace.. not yet. But I am even harder to declare one an ace. Look at Gray.. everyone anointed him the next ace and he is learning that it is not that easy.

 

[Enscheff]

It doesn't matter what term is used to describe Julio. What matters is he is a 3.5 WAR talent that is projected to produce ~14 WAR over the next 4 years at a total cost of $37M. That represents around $75M in surplus value.

The chances of regression are already factored into that 14 WAR projection. That is his 50th percentile outcome, which means there is a 50% chance he does better, and a 50% chance he does worse than 14 WAR. He could be better, he could be worse, or he could get hurt...but that is true for every single player and every single projection system.

This means he is "worth" a prospect whose 50th percentile outcome is a 3.5 WAR player for more than 4 years since those "future potential wins" are inherently more risky and thus less valuable than wins Julio provides today. From the same FG article, Joc Pederson is projected to be worth 12 WAR over his team control years, so he's not worth Julio. Gioloto is projected to be worth about 18 WAR over his team control, so that is the type of player who is a worthy return for Teheran. Bregman at 20 WAR, Benintendi at 18 WAR, Mazara at 20 WAR...those are the types of returns that are "fair". The Braves should be looking to win the trade if it's done at the trade deadline, so it needs to be Benintendi plus something, or Moncada with his projected WAR of ~23.

That's what Teheran is "worth", and FG literally just displayed it in table form. So for them to then turn around and say Teheran is only worth a 45 FV prospect is asinine.