nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Value is value. If we can get Player X for a good price, nothing precludes us from moving that player for a better price.
Viz and Teheran listed as top trade candidates
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
Value is value. If we can get Player X for a good price, nothing precludes us from moving that player for a better price.
Not true if the value is being wasted in years that we aren't competing. Fried, Newcomb, and Soroka could provide most of their value in the 2019-2023 time frame, which fits more in our timeline. The 4 WAR or whatever Freeman provides us this year for example is essentially worthless this year.
Unless we are going to make a real effort to compete in 2017 and 2018 I think it's pointless to trade for players whose peak value is in those years. It's a waste of value otherwise.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Fair enough. So how much would you discount production in 2017 and 2018.
I don't think it's really a discounting situation for me, it's more of an either we go for it or we don't situation to me. I'd actually agree with your point of view that we should stick to non-QA free agents this offseason and keep our 2nd round pick, and if we do that and sign decent pieces for 3B and LF I think we could wind up in the 75-80 win range given Swanson and Albies have decent rookie years and we have decent team health. But if we go that route I think it's pointless to give up a bunch of talent for someone like Archer who's peak value is in the 2017-2019 range most likely. Even if we added Archer to that 80ish win team the max we are most likely going to get is around 84-85 wins.
The lowest the second wildcard has been in the NL is 88 wins, and it's looking like a second year in a row of 90+ being the second wildcard spot. I don't see the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Cards, Nats, or Mets going crazy downhill in the next three seasons, so I figure we'll need 90 wins at least to make the playoffs for the forseeable future. I don't see being a 90 win team till 2019 at the earliest unless we make a couple bigtime offensive signings in free agency, so it's just a waste of resources to me to go after Archer unless we plan on taking that step.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Archer has more value than Teheran to me because his ceiling is higher, IMO, AND he's already shown he can reach that ceiling. Archer is having a down year ERA-wise, but his peripherals are still good. Walks are a little high, but when you're striking out as much guys as he is, it's not as bad. His BABIP against is high, HR/FB% is high. those things come down a bit, he's right where he was last year, which was pretty dominant (and in the AL). A move to the NL would be amazing for him.
He strikes out more, but that's about the only place in which he has an advantage. Also:
Archer:
Age 24: 7.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.66 K/BB, 4.07 FIP, 3.22 ERA
Age 25: 8.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.40 K/BB, 3.39 FIP, 3.33 ERA
Teheran:
Age 22: 8.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 3.78 K/BB, 3.69 FIP, 3.20 ERA
Age 23: 7.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.65 K/BB, 3.49 FIP, 2.89 ERA
Age 24: 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.34 K/BB, 4.40 FIP, 4.04 ERA
Age 25: 8.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 4.31 K/BB, 3.79 FIP, 2.79 ERA
At age 25, Teheran has the same K rate, much better BB rate, higher FIP (seemingly solely tied to HR rate) but lower ERA. Yes, Archer's K rate spiked after his age 25 season, but it's at least possible (though admittedly not extremely likely) that Teheran's does something similar. But Teheran's BB rate is consistently better, his K/BB rate is consistently better, his FIP is similar, and his ERA has been better. Teheran had the one down year at age 24, and Archer is having one this year at age 27. Those down years are pretty similar: Archer has the better FIP and K rate, Teheran has the better ERA, WHIP, and BB rate.
They are both workhorses who have been pretty consistent aside from one bad year. I'm just not sure that I buy that Archer is better or that his ceiling is higher.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I think his stuff is more better and more electric, and one is pitching in the AL vs. NL.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Take a look at Archer's contract. That's why he has a higher trade value.
This and as nsacpi said his contract is a bit better, one extra year and slightly cheaper.
It seemed clear to me that yeezus was discussing his value as a pitcher, not his overall trade value. It would take more than Teheran to get Archer, and I'm not sure the additional year of team option on Archer is worth that.
Also, Teheran is 2 years younger, which IMO cancels out the additional year on the contract. The savings are not really enough to make a difference.
I agree his stuff is more electric, but Teheran's best pitch is his changeup, and those guys are always considered less 'electric'. That doesn't really mean he's a better pitcher.
I'm not saying I would be upset with Archer over Teheran.....actually, as I look back through the thread, it seems like that's not even what's being discussed. So I'm not even sure why we're making the comparison.
Basically, I see Archer and Teheran as providing very similar value as pitchers. I don't think Archer is clearly better. He may have better stuff, but he hasn't been a more effective pitcher overall, especially through age 25.
In fact, using BR's WAR, Archer has been worth 9.4 WAR over the past 4 years (age 24-27). Teheran has been worth 12.3 (age 22-25). And I'm pretty sure they take league into account in that.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I suppose I was talking about both. Moving forward I'd take Archer over Teheran if given choice, and I think he's worth more in a trade. And I love Teheran and always have, and don't even want to trade him.
Yeah, I think it's fine to feel this way. To me, when I think of Archer, I think of a guy who is a near-ace who has the potential to be an ace. Then I look at the numbers and realize that's not really true.
I think K rate is very important among pitchers, but I think we still overhype guys who strike out a lot of batters. I think if you can get to that 8ish level in Ks, that's enough to be a potential ace (unless you're Greg Maddux, who was the freak of all freaks). Once you're there, I think it's more important to limit BBs than to continue striking even more out. So I'll take 8 Ks and 2 BBs over 10 Ks and 3-4 BBs, basically.
Again, I think they've been pretty similar, and the numbers even suggest Teheran has been better...and he's been 2 years younger. I'll take Teheran.
ETA: Also, Teheran is both less likely to be impacted by a dip in velocity and likely further away from that dip coming.
To me, it has less to do with the Braves timeline, and more to do with the cost of pitching right now. Right now (and this upcoming offseason) is NOT the time to be buying pitching due to the extremely short supply. I do NOT want to be a buyer in any market where Pomeranz just sold for a top 20 prospect.
This is a good offseason to buy average FAs at positions of need on short deals, which is exactly what the Braves need to do if they want to start turning the ship around. Buy Castro and Freese/Prado, and trade for Braun. The only potential disaster contract is Braun, but that's the price you pay for an impact bat if you don't want to give up elite prospects or $150M+.
PurpleBrave
On BBA's Top 100 Prospects List
74 pages of procrastination and useless banter
Lol, this thread is pretty pointless.
Fredi left him in too long again.