WEDNESDAY MINORS FINAL 5/8/19;This just in -- Riley is RIDICULOUS!

I've always only just been kinda casually excited about Riley and was definitely on board the "trade him while he's so valuable because his k-rate will expose him in the majors and he's just not that consistent offensively yet" camp... but his peripherals and approach/swing changes make this breakout look legit. We can't trade this guy because if he can translate it to the majors, he's an absolute star.
 
Carp said:
Came in at #33 overall and a 55 FV by Fangraphs. He's having a great year but is also repeating AAA. His K% is down considerably and his BB rate has improved as well. Still, I'd say a 65 FV ranking is unlikely. If he finishes the year as good as he's started, he'll likely be a 60 FV and a top 15 overall prospect. But he would need to crack the top 5 overall to get a 65 FV rating and most of the players who have 65 or better FVs generally have much better overall tools than Riley has.
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If he finishes like he is playing right now he would be #1. He is out of his mind right now.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
If he finishes like he is playing right now he would be #1. He is out of his mind right now.
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nothing will make anyone overtake Wander Franco for #1. he may be a better prospect than Acuña and Vlad Jr. by the end of the year.
but Riley could end up top 15.
 
Super said:
nothing will make anyone overtake Wander Franco for #1. he may be a better prospect than Acuña and Vlad Jr. by the end of the year.
but Riley could end up top 15.
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Really, Riley, Pache and Waters are probably due for jumps with their early performance.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Really, Riley, Pache and Waters are probably due for jumps with their early performance.
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i need to see Waters and Pache get to more sustainable numbers..but overall i do think they will jump in rankings.
Riley, tho..I wouldn't have asked for or expected the all-around improvement he's shown so far. maintaining it (even just the k/bb stuff) would be enormous.
 
Super said:
i need to see Waters and Pache get to more sustainable numbers..but overall i do think they will jump in rankings.
Riley, tho..I wouldn't have asked for or expected the all-around improvement he's shown so far. maintaining it (even just the k/bb stuff) would be enormous.
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Pache's performance seems a bit more unsustainable, though he's recently been improving in all areas we've wanted. Waters is just a machine.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Really, Riley, Pache and Waters are probably due for jumps with their early performance.
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It will be interesting to see where they are on the mid season lists. Pache's having an ISO over .200 should cause him to rise a few spots to be sure.
 
thethe said:
Riley has to be a top a 60FV prospect now right? Any chance some bullish 65FV are out there?
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No dude, why do you keep bringing up FV during players' hot streaks as if that is something always in flux? His FV hasn't changed since the start of the season. The only thing that changes is the probability that he reaches his upside.
 
Carp said:
Almost a zero percent chance he finishes No. 1 overall. Let's pump the brakes a bit here.
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I don't think he comes in number 1, but if you can't respect what kind of rare stretch this guy is on and can't appreciate that the peripherals show a long trend of adjusting, hard work, and improvement... you're not giving the guy his due. He is certainly a top 10 prospect in MLB now... possibly a top 5. Let's see if he can keep it up.
 
Carp said:
Sure, but still repeating. Repeating a level never adds to their value.
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Also it’s hard to call this a repeat year when he was only in AAA for a portion of the year. Last year he started in AA for a significant chunk of the year. This is the first year solely at AAA
 
Carp said:
Almost a zero percent chance he finishes No. 1 overall. Let's pump the brakes a bit here.
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I didn’t say he would. But if he continues what he is doing lately yes he will. The last 30 days he is hitting at a .340 avg. a .400+ obp. And 1.2ops. He would have 40+ bombs and ~40 doubles. So yes if he “continues” what he is doing there is a good chance he gets to the top. Will he. I have my doubts. He is a streaky player and in one of those insane streaks.
 
zbhargrove said:
I don't think he comes in number 1, but if you can't respect what kind of rare stretch this guy is on and can't appreciate that the peripherals show a long trend of adjusting, hard work, and improvement... you're not giving the guy his due. He is certainly a top 10 prospect in MLB now... possibly a top 5. Let's see if he can keep it up.
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Sorry, but no. It's been 32 games, and most of his damage has come in the last 13 games. I'm glad he's doing well, but this is a hot streak. He's not a top 5 overall prospect and I doubt most see him as top 10 at this point. Again, let's pump the brakes and see where he's at in another 30 games. If he's maintaining his current rates, he'll definitely move into the mid-season top 20.
 
zbhargrove said:
Also it’s hard to call this a repeat year when he was only in AAA for a portion of the year. Last year he started in AA for a significant chunk of the year. This is the first year solely at AAA
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A portion of the year? Really? He spent nearly 75 percent of his time last year at AAA. This is a repeat year.
 
MILB article on Riley: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/aust...nstrous-may-for-gwinnett-stripers/c-306971688

It was the 22-year-old's 12th homer in 32 games this season. He also singled to left in the third and drew a bases-loaded walkin the sixth. Riley said he's put a lot of work into his swing to get to this point.

"I've adjusted it a little bit to kind of be more consistent on catching up with fastballs that are higher velo," he said. "When I was thinking about being short to it, I was more down, a downward swing. I was fouling balls off, hitting popups in the infield. And with pitches that I was on time with, I wasn't squaring up."

Riley started working on his change in approach last season at Double-A Mississippi with Braves Minor League hitting coordinator Mike Brumley, continued it after a promotion to Gwinnett and through the offseason and the spring with the help of Stripers hitting coach Bobby Magallanes.

"How can I get in the zone earlier and then stay in it longer? A lot of guys when they're swinging at fastballs, they kind of get their body in the play, and I'm just kind of working my hands, trying to get it in the zone level, on plane, with the ball," Riley explained.
 
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