i would classify this as "dumping" on a teenager. guy is basically a consensus top-50 prospect and is 19. more HS pitchers struggle a bit with control than don't, even the ones who eventually become elite. again, those who watch him don't really have concerns about his command or future control.
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i would classify this as "dumping" on a teenager. guy is basically a consensus top-50 prospect and is 19. more HS pitchers struggle a bit with control than don't, even the ones who eventually become elite. again, those who watch him don't really have concerns about his command or future control.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I don't understand this comment. 1. he won't be a top 50 prospect by mid season, unless data changes 2. how are people not concerned about future control when present command/control is awful? since joining full season ball he is walking 5+/9 and a whip around 1.5.... That is not concerning?!?
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Not entirely true: most of the reports I’ve read note he struggles with fastball command, “it’s a work in progress”, et cetera; and sometimes that work never progresses. It’d be nice to see signs of improvement there; sure, it’s early, but so far the only signs have been regression.
For an 18/19 year old? No, not really. It's just really common. He also hasn't thrown a lot of innings. And we're basing a lot on 4 starts this year...soooo...
"Anderson works up in the zone at 92-95, touching 97 mph with elite extension that allows it to play even quicker, but a combination of corraling his rising velocity along with minor-league-level umpires inconsistency at calling high strikes has impacted his walk figures."
"While his walk rate was high during his first full season, there aren't overarching concerns about his command."
combined with being 19, i can't say i'm the least bit concerned.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Fine. Others are—including some professional evaluators who've seen him. And they're not wrong to be.
Personally, I'm not going doom-&-gloom with him—his combination of stuff is impressive, and age is on his side—but I'm also not going to just assume he figures out his command/control issues simply because he's young—plenty of young, talented guys never do. I certainly hope he does, though, because—if not—he's at best a middle-reliever, which is not a tremendous return on the #3 pick (although anytime a pick sticks in the majors, in any role, it's a success).
genuinely curious, what evaluators have mentioned it? i haven't really seen it.
i'd say there's a large difference between thinking his walk numbers need to come down and calling him a "joker."
i'm not just assuming he figures out his control (mostly because i don't really think it's an issue to begin with).
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Only one poster called him a "joker", and it wasn't me.
Fangraphs mentions fastball command in their write-up this year (along with the high-strike/umpire issue you noted, which they describe as only part of his walks problem); Sickels and Scouting the Sally League both mentioned it as well; and it's been mentioned elsewhere, though I'm not going to do anymore google backtracking. Suffice to say, better fastball command / lower walks (along with more consistency from his off-speed offerings) is far from a fringe ding, even if his age is a mitigating factor, and a reason to hope he can improve.
But as I said, you're fine to not worry about it; nonetheless, it's hardly outrageous that others are worried. For me, I'm not going to assume his walk-rate becomes tenable until he actually posts a tenable walk-rate.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
I'm no evaluator, but I saw him walk either 3 or 4 in a row last year in Rome on high fastballs. They weren't borderline strikes either, Lucas Hebert should have gotten a Nike shoe deal for being able to get to a few of them. We complain a lot on here about the Braves instructing pitchers to trade velocity for control, but Anderson needs to hear that lesson. He was visibly overthrowing. Taking a little off after a mound visit seemed to give him much more command.
Are you not basically just saying, 'This very young prospect needs to develop, or he won't end up being very good?'
That seems like it applies to all very young prospects, or at least 99.9% of them.
Sure, if he doesn't develop any further at all, he'll be at best a middle reliever, which is not good investment on the #3 pick. I'm not sure how that's breaking news.
Here are the other guys in the top 10 that year:
Mickey Moniak - sucks and has lost all value as a prospect
Nick Senzel - hit very well the last 2 years; really, really good prospect
Riley Pint - has sucked way harder than Anderson; now dealing with forearm tightness and appears likely headed for TJ
Corey Ray - sucked last year, not looking great so far this year; very, very meh as a college draft pick, definitely lower stock than Anderson
AJ Puk - pitched very well last year, now unfortunately headed for TJ
Braxton Garrett - looked ok to start last year, then unfortunately had TJ
Cal Quantrill - pitched fairly well the last couple years as a college arm, but lower K/9, likely never going to be anything resembling a TOR starter
Matt Manning - has struggled with BB even more than Anderson, still in A-ball
Zack Collins - has played well so far, but clearly behind Anderson in prospect rankings
Let's keep going with some guys Braves fans specifically wanted that were taken 11 and 12:
Kyle Lewis - played ok last year coming back from injury, yet to play this year
Jason Groome - struggled with BB more than Anderson last year, still on the DL
Obviously you can't do anything about the injuries. Those are bad luck, and Anderson still could deal with his own issues at some point. But please point to me the guy who was still there when we picked 3rd and tell me the guy who obviously has been better than Anderson and who we would rather have at this point.
exactly.
every single prospect needs development in one area or another, especially 19-year old pitchers. anderson doesn't have a history of control concerns (like pint). i haven't seen anyone sound the alarm on anderson's control (even if it was briefly mentioned by a couple people). it's an area he needs development in, but not an area of concern. at least not right now.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Sure. All I'm really saying—all I think most of Anderson's "critics" in this thread have been saying (with one exception)—is that he needs to develop, he particularly really needs to develop in the area of command/control (which will manifest in a much lower bb-rate), but he's still quite young so there's plenty of reason to remain optimistic and no reason to rule it out (even if we likewise can't just assume it will resolve itself).
Which is why I'm not getting that this position seems so outlandish or outrageous to Super ... As you say, almost all young-for-their-level prospects have aspects of their game they need to develop; we're just pointing out what that specifically is for Anderson, and noting that—in the obviously very small sample of 2018—we haven't seen any movement on that front.
Edit: I guess, given Super's subsequent post, that this all boils down to what constitutes an "area of concern". I maintain I'm justified in being concerned about Anderson's walk-rate (4.66 bb/9 last year; 6.43 bb/9 so far, in a tiny, four-game/fourteen-inning sample), even if Super isn't concerned.
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lol, i didn't say that saying his control needs development is "outrageous."
i think calling it a concern is silly, or suggesting his prospect status will drop because of it is also silly, or calling him a "joker" (i know - not you - but someone else also did agree with that assessment) is also silly.
identifying and pointing out an area that needs development is different than being concerned about it. apparently it's outrageous to *not* be concerned about it, according to you and bravesfanmatt.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
I just think the burden of ambiguity is on those who are confident it will improve, not those pointing out it's bad / a problem right now. But I thought I was pretty clear, through frequent admission that age and stuff (and, so far, a strict avoidance of the long-ball) are on his side, that I don't think it's outrageous to think he's still a good prospect, or that he can lock his command of his arsenal down enough to flourish.