NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Who cares? He's no longer with the Braves.
What would Frank have done?
- Thread starter Hawk
- Start date
We're talking about BJ and Justin Upton ... who are both still very much Atlanta Braves.
And stop trying to threadcrap.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
What would Frank have done?
He would have signed another terrible free agent to a contract worse than Upton the elders deal.
He would have signed another terrible free agent to a contract worse than Upton the elders deal.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Wren's issue with the farm was it was about to become barren because of JS selling off the farm in his latter years, and some pretty crappy drafts/international signings
Let's look at some of JS's later trades. First and foremost the Teixeira trade with depleted us of top prospects Andrus and Feliz and depth propsect Harrison. Pretty sure Salty wasn't a prospect at that point anymore. He alos traded Davies for Dotel, not that Davies amounted to much, but Octavio Dotel? He then traded McBride and Startup for Ring, Betemit for Baez and Aybar, and Marte for Renteria. Most of those trades didn't work out unfavorably for the Braves but they were involved in depleting our farm. And again our picks in the later years were pretty weak.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Braves Farm system ranks, per BA:
1984: 12
1985: 13
Bobby Cox becomes GM
1986: 22
1987: 24
1988: 14
1989: 5
1990: 2
John Schuerholz becomes GM
1991: BA did not rank systems this year
1992: 1
1993: 3
1994: 1
1995: 1
1996: 3
1997: 6
1998: 6
1999: 1
2000: ?? (not sure)
2001: 5
2002: 7
2003: 2
2004: 4
2005: 5
2006: 7
Paul Snyder retires
2007: 15
Wren becomes GM
2008: 8
2009: 6
Clark skeedaddles outta town
2010:13
2011: 2
2012: 15
2013: 21
2014: 26
Let me know if you see any trends there.
And before you say "graduation rates" about recent years, I want you to think about how many dudes we graduated or traded in the mid aughts. Or any of the previous 15 years.
Saltalamacchia was the centerpiece. Felix was in class A, at the time, and was projected for bigger things. Harrison wasn't as highly regarded. The Rangers just hit the jackpot. Meanwhile, Chipper was in a totally different galaxy with protection in the lineup from another high average/big pop switch hitter. So, let's not pretend that this deal was completed blindly. We all know now that MLB is the point where gunning for the WS has become a crap shoot. We've already heard enough whining between here and Scout about the Texeira trade. Too many Braves fans act is if "why is it only us?" Research what the Expos gave up for Bartolo Colon. Totally gutted that organization to prep the move to DC.
As far as the others, some you should know better. Betemit's development got stunted. He was delayed at AAA for 3 years and did not become the star player, which was projected of him. Even more damaging was not retaining Aybar. Despite the off-field incidents, dude made a dent after he left ATL.
Crocodile tears for Marte, Davies, McBride, Startup, etc. So many armchair GM's here love to 2nd guess Schuerholz, but he rarely got burned, trading a pitcher. About the only exception, if there is one, would be Jason Schmidt. However, he didn't emerge until after joining the Giants. Plus Denny Neagle was the ideal replacement for Avery, whom they knew was on his last legs.
These love-fests with certain prospects really never go anywhere. Unfortunately, the flames were fanned by Shanks, who preached that every Braves prospect was great, especially if he was from Georgia & grew up a Braves fan.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
You should learn to read. I never said JS got burnt on any of the deals but the Tex one. Never. What the entire point of my post was our depth in the minors was obliterated by JS. Sure the guys didn't pan out but they could have been depth that Wren instead had to go out and draft guys like Todd Cunningham to fill a role.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
We started sucking after Snyder retired.
Anyway, I don't put much stock in BA rankings. They're fun to muse on but at what point do people realize that tools (which is what BA grades on) don't always make for good players? Prado wasn't BA rated, Medlen wasn't, Beachy wasn't, and they all had various amounts of success.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Here is an article from BA in March 2013 (for some reason I can't find the 2014 version of this list) ranking farm system productivity in recent years.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/mino...-production-from-farm-system-in-recent-years/
Since that article was published our system has graduated some additional players: Gattis, Wood, Shae Simmons, La Stella, Hale.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/mino...-production-from-farm-system-in-recent-years/
Since that article was published our system has graduated some additional players: Gattis, Wood, Shae Simmons, La Stella, Hale.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
The point is our system used to be able to consistently replace the guys who graduated/were traded/whatever. Are you really not seeing the trend above?
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
(1) Beachy and Medlen were both top 10 prospects in our system, per BA.
(2) BA does not solely grade on tools.
(3) Honestly, Baseball Prospectus (for example) are much more of tools whores that BA, at least in recent years.
(4) Prado being our miracle baby does not make prospect rankings meaningless.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I see it. I would argue that complementing your list with the actual output of the farm system over the past 4 or 5 years gives a more accurate picture.
To be fair to Wren guys like Gattis/Wood/Simmons skyrocketed through the system. Their "grades" were not indicative of their true MLB ability. Further, it seems the farm is about to have a turnaround. There is finally some high ceiling talent at multiple levels right now with Sims/Peraza/Grosser/Fulenchek/Albies/Jenkins.
However, once we started to learn that we couldn't retain top scouting talent because of Wren/Manno then his firing made sense.
However, once we started to learn that we couldn't retain top scouting talent because of Wren/Manno then his firing made sense.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think the rankings need to be complemented by data on what those players did once they hit the majors (during their first six years of contractual control). You can have a situation where two farm systems are rated about the same but one has produced much more in recent years. To me you have to take that into account. You can also have a situation where two systems are rated about the same, but in the ensuing years the players from one system far out-perform the other once they make the majors. I would argue that it is also very important to take that into account. In fact I would argue that in rating a farm system (or a particular draft) the actual outcomes should be given farm more weight that what the pundits say. Of course you have to wait a few years to see the actual outcomes.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
True but Prado is a reminder that the actual outcome can be far different that the pundits rankings. Marte is a reminder in the opposite direction. We've had a bit of both over the years. Guys like Marte or Kyle Davies did not live up to their rankings. In addition to Prado, we've had guys like Escobar, Gattis and Wood who never made BA's Top 100. This is why I think the lists need to be complemented by data on the actual output of the players matriculating through the system.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Top 10 in our system and top prospcts are not the same thing. Kyle Kubitza made our BA top 10 and I'm pretty sure he's gonna amount to pretty much nothing.
They don't, I know that, but they rely heavily on them.
I never said meaningless, just don't put much stock in them. Gattis didn't crack BA's top 100, but he was one of the top half catchers in fWAR tied with McCann.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
The vast majority of the value in that Callis article (2010-2013) was from reaping the crops from the Clark years (Heyward, Freeman, Teheran, Minor...). The issue at hand is that we haven't been successfully sowing the seeds for the next crops.
Do you legitimately think the output of the post Clark drafts has been comparable to something like the 2005-era team? Our farm system took that one right in stride. Similarly, our farm system actually went up in rank the year after we did the Tex trade. But now the awfulness of our farm system can be excused because we hit on a few guys? No. A productive farm system needs to be continuously replenishing. That's why the Braves were successful for so long; they could graduate or trade their top guys, and a new batch would be right their to take their place. We are clearly no longer doing that, as the objective rankings show.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
This is so banal and nitpicky. The specific prospects are irrelevant; yes, some prospects will beat their rankings and some prospects will fall short. This is not insightful. Look at the declining overall health of the farm, which the organizational rankings point to.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Kubitza made our top 10 now, when our farm is weak. That's not the same as making it when we are a top farm system. I feel like you are making my point for me?