What's the best we could hope for in 2018?

sturg33

sturg33

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Just a thought experiment... how good could the team be as currently constructed, and thus what would we need to do to get to 90 wins?

Here are what I think are attainable WAR totals next year (not necessarily likely, but possible).

Position - WAR (2017 WAR)
C - Flowers/Suzuki: 4 fWAR (4.7)
1B - Freeman: 6 (5.5)
2B - Albies: 4.5 (3.3)
3B - Ruiz/Camargo: 2 (0.4)
SS - Swanson: 2.5 (1.3)
LF - Adams/Markakis: 2 (-1.5)
CF - Ender: 3.5 (3)
RF - Acuna: 2.5 (0.8)

Total: 27 (17.5)


Improvement: ~9.5 WINS

Teheran: 2 (1.1)
Dickey: 1.5 (1.7)
Folty: 2 (1.8)
Newcomb: 2 (PACING 2.3)
Gohara: 3.5 (PACING 6)

Total: 11

Braves starting pitchers in 2017 = 8.2

Improvement: ~2.8 WINS

Not going to look at bench bullpen... but I project we could improve by ~1.5 WINS just with the bullpen additions of Winkler, Minter, etc.

So by my math, by simply dumping Kemp, our current roster stands to improve year over year by ~13-14 WINS.

This is assuming no regression... but it's not assuming wild predictions either.

So where does that leave us? Anywhere between 84-86 wins.

What do we need to get to 90? Where can we realistically improve?

We could probably pick up an extra win or two in the rotation by replacing Dickey with a Lance Lynn type.

We could potentially pick up a win by picking up a Todd Frazier at third.

We could potentially pick up a win by picking up a better player in left field.

If we did all of that, we get to the 88-90 range.

Is my math off here?
 
You lost me at WAR.

Best outcomes for 2018 include a new front office and less fanboy sunshine blowing posters. :elefant:
 
Start pitchers progression upwards by firing Hernandez.

Dickey won't be around. He's gonna retire. I don't see that much of an improvement in Folty. He lost last 7 starts, to get those numbers he'd have to be a Cy Young candidate compared to this year. In those starts he went 4.0, 6.0, 6.1, 5.0, 5.2, 3.1, 2.2 IP. Threw 154.0 innings in 28 starts and 1 relief appearance.
 
My hope is that Chuck Hernandez is fired, all of the old school guys in the FO are shown the door, and Kemp's contract somehow gets eaten.

In the organization:

C: Flowers/Suzuki (4 fWAR)
1B: Freeman (6 fWAR)
2B: Albies (4.5 fWAR)
3B: Ruiz/Camargo (1.5 fWAR)
SS: Swanson (2 fWAR)
LF: Some combo of Markakis/Adams (2 fWAR)
RF: Acuna (3.5 fWAR) (I'd hope the Braves FO is smart, but...if not, this might be a touch conservative)

Starting rotation I really can't do until I see what's projected.
 
We're at about 80 wins on the expected win curve. With some non-outlandish luck we can get to 85.
 
sturg33 said:
Just a thought experiment... how good could the team be as currently constructed, and thus what would we need to do to get to 90 wins?

Here are what I think are attainable WAR totals next year (not necessarily likely, but possible).

Position - WAR (2017 WAR)
C - Flowers/Suzuki: 4 fWAR (4.7)
1B - Freeman: 6 (5.5)
2B - Albies: 4.5 (3.3)
3B - Ruiz/Camargo: 2 (0.4)
SS - Swanson: 2.5 (1.3)
LF - Adams/Markakis: 2 (-1.5)
CF - Ender: 3.5 (3)
RF - Acuna: 2.5 (0.8)

Total: 27 (17.5)


Improvement: ~9.5 WINS

Teheran: 2 (1.1)
Dickey: 1.5 (1.7)
Folty: 2 (1.8)
Newcomb: 2 (PACING 2.3)
Gohara: 3.5 (PACING 6)

Total: 11

Braves starting pitchers in 2017 = 8.2

Improvement: ~2.8 WINS

Not going to look at bench bullpen... but I project we could improve by ~1.5 WINS just with the bullpen additions of Winkler, Minter, etc.

So by my math, by simply dumping Kemp, our current roster stands to improve year over year by ~13-14 WINS.

This is assuming no regression... but it's not assuming wild predictions either.

So where does that leave us? Anywhere between 84-86 wins.

What do we need to get to 90? Where can we realistically improve?

We could probably pick up an extra win or two in the rotation by replacing Dickey with a Lance Lynn type.

We could potentially pick up a win by picking up a Todd Frazier at third.

We could potentially pick up a win by picking up a better player in left field.

If we did all of that, we get to the 88-90 range.

Is my math off here?
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I wonder if any Twins fans did a similar exercise last year?
 
I don't think there's really any possible way to rid ourselves of Kemp's contract so I fee we'll have his horrible defense clogging up one of the corner spots all year. I think Markakis will regress to a negative WAR player next season. So even if we platoon the 2 wastes of space it will still lead to negative wins.

With those 2 I just can't see us getting near 90 wins. 80 could be doable if Acuna performs like we are hoping (after a May call up).
 
Instead of trading pitching for pitching I'd look at a young super cheap outfielder like Frazier or Tucker to trade for. Having 2 young cheap corner outfielders like Acuna and Tucker/Frazier would allow you to just eat Kemps money and cut him.
 
Hudson2 said:
Instead of trading pitching for pitching I'd look at a young super cheap outfielder like Frazier or Tucker to trade for. Having 2 young cheap corner outfielders like Acuna and Tucker/Frazier would allow you to just eat Kemps money and cut him.
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I dont get the rumors of trading for a pitcher when we have guys like Gohara, Newk, Folty, Julio, Fried, and Allard, Soroka, among others coming up. Just doesnt make any sense.

I agree on trading for an outfielder but it depends on the cost.
 
Heyward said:
I dont get the rumors of trading for a pitcher when we have guys like Gohara, Newk, Folty, Julio, Fried, and Allard, Soroka, among others coming up. Just doesnt make any sense.

I agree on trading for an outfielder but it depends on the cost.
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Me either. We won't have enough spots as it is.
 
Hudson2 said:
Me either. We won't have enough spots as it is.
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Yes I agree, and on top of that...what pitcher is even out there to acquire ?? Acher (no matter how good his stuff is), was VERY average again this year. I’d just as well keep Julio. If there was a Sale type out there....there isn’t. Let’s not for get late next year about Wright and maybe even Weigel. Just let the guys that earn the spot pitch. The biggest problem are those corner spots and maybe a short term answer at third. Realistically , we are even “ok” there with Camargo. I’m afraid the front office (under pressure to win), will make some moves for publicity right when everything is starting to click into place. They just need patience and by 2019(possibly even next year with a few breaks)...this team should be playing in October.
 
jimsnores said:
I wonder if any Twins fans did a similar exercise last year?
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Big difference with the Twins is that they had a slew of good-to-very good prospects (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Vargas, Polanco, Berrios) that had recently graduated to the major leagues. I'm probably one of the few people in America who isn't all that surprised by their being in the playoffs. Their pitching is really shaky after Santana and Berrios, but their young core of position prospects is pretty solid. We simply don't have a cadre of young veterans like the Twins. I expect our younger guys to be up-and-down next year the same way the Twins' guys were last year and the year before.

I think we can be a .500 team next year if everything falls right.
 
50PoundHead said:
Big difference with the Twins is that they had a slew of good-to-very good prospects (Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Vargas, Polanco, Berrios) that had recently graduated to the major leagues. I'm probably one of the few people in America who isn't all that surprised by their being in the playoffs. Their pitching is really shaky after Santana and Berrios, but their young core of position prospects is pretty solid. We simply don't have a cadre of young veterans like the Twins. I expect our younger guys to be up-and-down next year the same way the Twins' guys were last year and the year before.

I think we can be a .500 team next year if everything falls right.
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Roasario was on a tear the last two months or so. Buxton was red hot too for awhile and he actually carried them for a bit. Personally I think this is a fluke and they come crashing back to earth next year. They are better than last year, but not 25 games better. Berrios was up and down, mostly down on the road. Think they need to add a legit 2/3 starter to have any chance of hanging around next season.
 
Answer to the original question is rather generic: we don't know right now

We have to see what happens in the offseason. What will the rotation look like? Who's in the bullpen? Who's on third? Markakis traded? Kemp (not likely)? What about the coaching staff? There's a lot of questions that will have to be answered between After tomorrow's game and when Spring Training opens in February
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
Answer to the original question is rather generic: we don't know right now

We have to see what happens in the offseason. What will the rotation look like? Who's in the bullpen? Who's on third? Markakis traded? Kemp (not likely)? What about the coaching staff? There's a lot of questions that will have to be answered between After tomorrow's game and when Spring Training opens in February
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The original question was what's the best we can hope for with no changes externally... I peg that at 83-85 wins
 
Most of these posts are exactly the same as they have been the last few offseasons. Even the conservative 75-78 win projections proved to be too homer.

If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team.

If they fix 3b, fix the 3rd OF position, and acquire a 3 win SP they can be a .500 team with a chance at being buyers at the deadline. Problem is there doesn't appear to be any money to make any improvements other than a few BP additions.
 
Enscheff said:
Most of the law posts are exactly the same as they have been the last few offseasons. Even the conservative 75-78 win projections proved to be too homer.

If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team.

If they fix 3b, fix the 3rd OF position, and acquire a 3 win SP they can be a .500 team with a chance at being buyers at the deadline. Problem is there doesn't appear to be any money to make any improvements other than a few BP additions.
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This is the undeniable truth. Until this team picks up another solid starter, a 3B, and a serious upgrade in LF, (not to mention manager) we'll be stuck in the purgatory of 90 loss teams. I got sucked in this year thinking we'd approach 80 wins. We aren't close and won't be until those things happen.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
Roasario was on a tear the last two months or so. Buxton was red hot too for awhile and he actually carried them for a bit. Personally I think this is a fluke and they come crashing back to earth next year. They are better than last year, but not 25 games better. Berrios was up and down, mostly down on the road. Think they need to add a legit 2/3 starter to have any chance of hanging around next season.
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Their pitching is very thin (note Colon in the rotation), but I think Rosario is for real. Buxton has really shortened his swing and isn't getting killed by breaking stuff anymore. He still has holes in his swing and I don't think he'll ever be a top-tier offensive player, but he doesn't have to be with the rest of that line-up. Polanco is the guy who probably tails off.
 
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