Who is for real?
- Thread starter BeanieAntics
- Start date
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Swanson has been legit, man. He’s not going to hit +.320 all year, and will likely settle somewhere around .275-.280, but he’s been a God-send. His pitch recognition has been night and day.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Swanson is really solid fundamentally and it looks as though he has mitigated his penchant for trying to pull pitches on the outer half. I see good things.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Regardless who is real or not. It is nice that two weeks later and all three still haven’t turned back into pumpkins.
Would love to see if Kurt could play a little first base and then bring in another guy who can be a third catcher. He would be our best bench hitter the days Flowers start and I wouldn't want to hesitate to use him.
Give Freeman an off day against a tough lefty once a month as well.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Seitzer has an old school approach, but I think that has helped Swanson (and maybe Tucker as well).
Swanson obviously won't ride his 400 BABIP all year or likely have a 200+ ISO but as you said his pitch recognition is completely different than last year. The one Harvey AB where he struck out last night was one of the only times he looked somewhat foolish so far this year. Very good signs.
He's also running a +2 DRS and has a UZR/150 of +16 so far on defense. Hopefully he has fixed whatever problems he had last year and goes on to be that 3-4 WAR player we all hoped he would be. At the end of the day I don't think Swanson will be great at any one thing but should be above average to good in all things which comes out to a really good player.
I think Suzuki has a new kind of revolution going. Hit it 340+ down the left field line. I'm not sure if all 3 of his homers have gone a combined 1050 feet or not.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This early in the season, I like to look at hitters strikeout rates to see who might be generating some real improvement. The strikeout rate numbers require a smaller sample to give a meaningful picture than is the case with BABIP, ISO or even the walk rate.
Last season, I flagged Flowers improving strikeout rate (which continued a trend that had begun the previous season) as a reason to believe his improvement was real and likely to be sustained. Here is an early look at this year's numbers:
Suzuki has gotten attention for his power spike from late last year that has carried over some this year. I'm not going to make much of that. What I do find intriguing is his extraordinarily low 2% strikeout rate so far this year. He's always been a low strikeout hitter (about 12% career). I think he has made some adjustments to his swing and general approach to hitting that is generating "real" improvement that has a fair chance of being sustained.
Flaherty obviously is getting a big boost from the BABIP. That is pixie dust. But a modest part of his success this year is probably real improvement. Strikeout rate so far is 17.2 versus a career rate of 24.2.
Albies is striking out 16.7% of the time, up from 14.8%. He can be successful with that even if the ISO drops off, which I'm sure it will.
Swanson is striking out 21.3% of the time down from 21.8% last year and 23.4% in 2016. I like the trend, but would like to see him get it below 20%.
Freeman is striking out 15.7% down from 18.5% last year (which itself was a career low). We are seeing a great hitter in his prime. Somehow still improving.
Tucker is striking out 21.1% of the time, down slightly from his career number of 22.9%. He's a decent hitter. That's all. Sorry folks.
Inciarte is striking out 17.3%. I'm a bit concerned given it comes after an uptick to 13.1% last year. He needs to put the ball in play to maintain value.
Markakis is at 12.0%, reversing an uptick over the previous two years. Some have advocated keeping Tucker over Muk in the lineup once Acuna gets called up. I disagree.
A lot of our guys have improved their approach, resulting in a reduction in strikeout rates. The hitting coach deserves some credit. We are tied with the Pirates with the lowest strikeout rate in the NL. I like that. I predict both the Braves and Pirates will be playing meaningful baseball in September.
Last season, I flagged Flowers improving strikeout rate (which continued a trend that had begun the previous season) as a reason to believe his improvement was real and likely to be sustained. Here is an early look at this year's numbers:
Suzuki has gotten attention for his power spike from late last year that has carried over some this year. I'm not going to make much of that. What I do find intriguing is his extraordinarily low 2% strikeout rate so far this year. He's always been a low strikeout hitter (about 12% career). I think he has made some adjustments to his swing and general approach to hitting that is generating "real" improvement that has a fair chance of being sustained.
Flaherty obviously is getting a big boost from the BABIP. That is pixie dust. But a modest part of his success this year is probably real improvement. Strikeout rate so far is 17.2 versus a career rate of 24.2.
Albies is striking out 16.7% of the time, up from 14.8%. He can be successful with that even if the ISO drops off, which I'm sure it will.
Swanson is striking out 21.3% of the time down from 21.8% last year and 23.4% in 2016. I like the trend, but would like to see him get it below 20%.
Freeman is striking out 15.7% down from 18.5% last year (which itself was a career low). We are seeing a great hitter in his prime. Somehow still improving.
Tucker is striking out 21.1% of the time, down slightly from his career number of 22.9%. He's a decent hitter. That's all. Sorry folks.
Inciarte is striking out 17.3%. I'm a bit concerned given it comes after an uptick to 13.1% last year. He needs to put the ball in play to maintain value.
Markakis is at 12.0%, reversing an uptick over the previous two years. Some have advocated keeping Tucker over Muk in the lineup once Acuna gets called up. I disagree.
A lot of our guys have improved their approach, resulting in a reduction in strikeout rates. The hitting coach deserves some credit. We are tied with the Pirates with the lowest strikeout rate in the NL. I like that. I predict both the Braves and Pirates will be playing meaningful baseball in September.
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If you drop Dansby's BABIP down to .300, his line drops to .254/.293/.451. Obviously not great but still not terrible with the kind of defense he's playing, and I think his BB rate is destined to come back up. So I think you're still looking at a guy worth at least 2 WAR or so.
The keys to watch will be whether he can bring his K rate down some and whether his power so far this year is real.
The keys to watch will be whether he can bring his K rate down some and whether his power so far this year is real.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
At this stage of the season, I would almost completely discount improvement coming via BABIP or ISO. I would give a fair amount of weight to improvement coming from a lower strikeout rate.
msstate7
Well-known member
If you are gonna look at a SSS of strikeouts, wouldn't the competition be relevant?
Braves' opponents' MLB K rankings:
Nats 2nd
Mets 5th
Rockies 13th
Phillies 18th
Cubs 23rd
So the braves have faced top 5 k teams 7 of 18 (38.9%), top 13 10 of 18 (55.6%), top 18 16 of 18 (88.9%), and 20-30 teams 2 of 18 (11.1%). Gotta figure the braves' k rate could even go down even more as the face lesser K teams.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's a good point. We've faced Scherzer twice and Strasburg once so far. DeGrom and Syndegaard coming up.
Have we come full circle and realized that strikeouts are bad for hitters?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
ceteris paribus
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
ISO is good. A high walk rate is good.
I focus on strikeout rates early in the season because it is a stat that does not need as big a sample size to indicate something real has changed. But it is not the only way a hitter could improve.