WHO TO TRADE? WHO TO KEEP?

rico43

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Going to as some questions that have not been asked around here in a serious way.

1) Is Andrelton Simmons expendible with many (seemingly) capable, if not sensational shortstops in the system?
(Remember, Ozzie Smith even got traded once)

2) If Heyward doesn't sign a long term deal, do we move him now/this offseason?

3) How long do we wait on Mike Minor, :Luis Avilan get their act together?

4) Do we or do we not trade Gattis to the AL?

5) Do we/can we re-sign Santana?

6) And what bad contract can we afford to acquire for BJ's bad contract?

I AM NOT recommending any or all of these moves, but thin one or more might be becoming necessary.
 
rico43 said:
Going to as some questions that have not been asked around here in a serious way.

1) Is Andrelton Simmons expendible with many (seemingly) capable, if not sensational shortstops in the system?
(Remember, Ozzie Smith even got traded once)

2) If Heyward doesn't sign a long term deal, do we move him now/this offseason?

3) How long do we wait on Mike Minor, :Luis Avilan get their act together?

4) Do we or do we not trade Gattis to the AL?

5) Do we/can we re-sign Santana?

6) And what bad contract can we afford to acquire for BJ's bad contract?

I AM NOT recommending any or all of these moves, but thin one or more might be becoming necessary.
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If a team take BJ and his contract and Gattis is part of it, I will do the trade.

The others, I won't.
 
Toronto, Chicago, Texas are possibilities.

Gattis would hit 40 homers in those parks if he C/DH
 
rico43 said:
Going to as some questions that have not been asked around here in a serious way.

1) Is Andrelton Simmons expendible with many (seemingly) capable, if not sensational shortstops in the system?

(Remember, Ozzie Smith even got traded once)

2) If Heyward doesn't sign a long term deal, do we move him now/this offseason?

3) How long do we wait on Mike Minor, :Luis Avilan get their act together?

4) Do we or do we not trade Gattis to the AL?

5) Do we/can we re-sign Santana?

6) And what bad contract can we afford to acquire for BJ's bad contract?

I AM NOT recommending any or all of these moves, but thin one or more might be becoming necessary.
Click to expand...

Iight I'll give it my best

1. I wouldn't imagine so although he has to hit for him to be worth his contract

2. I would I do not want us to just let Heyward walk and get nothing in return. The question is how much could we get for him ?

3. I'd give Minor more latitude then Avilan

4. I'm not sure I want Gattis traded but in the right deal I wouldn't be opposed

5. I think we should Teheran and Wood are the only sure things having him helps

6. I'm not sure we would eat 2 contracts in one year
 
I think the answer on Simmons was made this off season. They just signed him to a long term deal. I highly doubt they look to move him after a down offensive season. Some of the young guys in the system right now might be slightly better bats long term than Andrelton, I don't think their bat advantage will ever outweigh the fielding advantage Andrelton brings.

I think a decision will need to be made on Jason Heyward. I imagine the gap between what he will likely get on the open market and what the Braves will be willing to pay him will be rather large. To move him though, they have to get a good return.

I would let Santana go and get the draft pick.

I could also see BJ and Minor packaged in the offseason. Minor still has potential, and he will be a guy that some team may be willing to take a chance on if they take on BJ's contract.
 
As for Gattis no way should we trade him. I would give him half the starts at catcher with an occasional start at 1b and lf. Even when he doesn't start he has thrived in pinch hitting at bats. As bad as the bench is this year we could really use that bat.
 
cajunrevenge said:
As for Gattis no way should we trade him. I would give him half the starts at catcher with an occasional start at 1b and lf. Even when he doesn't start he has thrived in pinch hitting at bats. As bad as the bench is this year we could really use that bat.
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I think Evan is the type of catcher the Braves value. If you look back at the Braves catchers since around 1994, they have really only had three. Javier Lopez came up in 1994 I believe. They had a short round of Johnny Estrada before replacing him with Brian McCann. Both Lopez and McCann were more offensive oriented catchers than defensive guys. They usually had a strong defender behind them, whether it was Charlie O'Brien, Eddie Perez, or David Ross.

I think they hang on to Evan Gattis unless Christian Bethancourt starts hitting like Salvador Perez has hit in the majors.
 
cajunrevenge said:
As for Gattis no way should we trade him. I would give him half the starts at catcher with an occasional start at 1b and lf. Even when he doesn't start he has thrived in pinch hitting at bats. As bad as the bench is this year we could really use that bat.
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To get of BJ's contract I would reconsider. ONLY that.
 
1). No Simmons should not and will not be traded. He's young enough that his hitting can improve. Now he will always be a defense first SS, but his bat will get better as he matures.

2) I am in the group that doesn't feel Jason deserves to be paid top dollar. Yes his defense and base running are stellar, but it seems like he wants a mega pay day. If we can move him I think we should do it as soon as possible.

3) Avilan seems like a lost cause at this point. Last season was awesome, but he has comerrlt fallen off. There are better internal options to replace him. Minor. Everyone here knows how I feel about him as a pitcher.

4) Gattis should stay for the time being. Bethencourt does very little at the plate. Not sure I am feeling confident if CB is starting anytime soon.

5) I would be in favor of signing Ervin to a multi year deal obviously depending on the cost. There will be a couple open spots in the rotation and Santana should fill one.

6) Not sure what contract we could take on in place of BJ's.
 
To me those advocating a trade involving Gattis are crazy. He's not great defensively...I don't really care. We aren't 6 games back because he let's a few balls get by him he shouldn't. We are 6 games back because we don't score runs. Replacing a far above average offensive catcher with a guy whose value is built almost completely on defense won't help our anemic offense.

Not talking about people in this thread, but I've seen far too many proposals in other threads involving Gattis.
 
Gattis and BJ to the Mariners makes some sense. Their wRC+ from C, DH, and LF are 81, 68, and 89 respectively and their CFs are so bad that BJ would somehow be a legit upgrade.
 
As far as players go I want to see 2 things happen.

1. Extend Jason

2. Extend Justin

We're largely set for next year that I don't see any one player being a key addition accept 3B.

Look at our depth chart

C - Gattis, Bethancourt - Maybe adding a vet to let Bethancourt develop would be nice but I'll explain what I'd do further down.
1B - Freeman, Terds - No real way to get better, I think Terds takes Doumit's spot as corner OF/1B
2B - La Stella Gosselin Pena - Hard to get better there
3B - Johnson Pena Gosselin - Only spot where we have someone we can move and improve on, but at what cost?
SS - Simmons Pena
LF - Justin Terds Cunningham
CF - Lossman Cunningham
RF - Heyward Cunningham

SP - Julio, Minor, Wood, Hale, Northcraft, Martin, Schlosser, Hursh, and who for sure will start in the mionrs but should be MLB ready by midseason if they get back to their dominating ways, Graham and Sims.
RP - Kimbrel, Walden, Avilan, Carpenter, Gearrin, Russell, Simmons, Varvaro, Thomas, Shreve, and many more.

Looking at our depth chart involving no moves aside from non-tendering the people who're on their second major surgery, there are 3 areas of weakness, 3B, CF, and SP. For SP I'd make 2 moves to improve depth. I'd offer Beachy and Medlen to stick around for a slight pay decrease. I'd qualify Ervin and if he accepts ship him off. Someone will take him at 1/14 and not losing a pick. If he doesn't accept we get a pick. I don't think next year we'll have the money to keep Ervin around tthough I'd love to on a yearly basis. I'd re-sign Floyd, I think he'd come back at the same contract as last year and we can afford that. Only other FA I'm interested in keeping is Bonifacio. 3B is fixable, sign Headley trade Johnson. CF we have no prayer of trading BJ aside from packaging him with somone and taking a huge hit. Which I hope we don't do. I'd run a platoon for BJ, not a strict platoon, but basically let BJ play when he has a mini hot streak and bench him pretty much every game after he goes 0fer. Put Gattis in RF (I know) Jason in CF and Bethancourt behind home. Down side is it kills our OF defense. Upside is it hopefully it will make BJ realize he has to change his ways. He sucks and needs to turn it up.

More importnatly than player moves though is to fire Fredi and bring in someone to personally coach BJ. Someone who's job it is to watch his swing and approach every day and tell him where he's straying from. Our only hope to be one of the best teams in the NL is for BJ to resemble his former self or for everyone else on the team to carry him.

Simmons being traded is an option but not one I'd pursue yet. Maybe in 2 offseasons.
 
I have a solution to it all. Fire Fredi and Walker. That solves 90% of the problem. Hire a good hitting coach to come in and fix these hitters mentality at the plate. I am a firm believer that Simmons could be at least a .280 career hitter with the right approach at the plate. Also, get a manager that plays to win every night and not one that waits until we are out of it to push the right buttons.

As far as Heyward goes, you have to sign him. He is a big peace to this youth movement we started a few years back. The only two guys I could care less about keeping are Bj and Avilan. Although I do think a better hitting coach could rework Bj's approach at the plate, I just don't like his laziness. Arguing every close pitch and not hustling is two of my biggest pep peeves. Ever how you spell that.
 
BTW as far as bad contracts to trade Bossman for.

Jose Reyes - FA afte 2017 owed 70 million including buyout. Still a good player, but have no need for SS or 2B and he doesn't hit enough to play 3B for the nearly 7 million dollars more per year we'd be paying

Andre Ethier - FA after 2017 owed 58M. CLoser to BJ's remaining contract value, but as someone not been better than BJ this year, pass.

Crawford - FA after 2017 owed 62.5M. Again, not a real improvement.

John Danks - First interesting one, owed 28.5M FA after 2016. But has been horrible. Could be a straight salary dump I'd get behind and see if Roger can work a little magic.

Josh Hamilton - FA after 2017 owed 83M. Throwing in for posterity cause it's a really ****ing bad contract.
 
rico43 said:
Going to as some questions that have not been asked around here in a serious way.

1) Is Andrelton Simmons expendible with many (seemingly) capable, if not sensational shortstops in the system?

(Remember, Ozzie Smith even got traded once)

2) If Heyward doesn't sign a long term deal, do we move him now/this offseason?

3) How long do we wait on Mike Minor, :Luis Avilan get their act together?

4) Do we or do we not trade Gattis to the AL?

5) Do we/can we re-sign Santana?

6) And what bad contract can we afford to acquire for BJ's bad contract?

I AM NOT recommending any or all of these moves, but thin one or more might be becoming necessary.
Click to expand...

Interesting questions. Some general principles to keep in mind in answering these questions:

A) We should focus more on what we need to acquire rather than what we're trying to get rid of. Main priority this off-season is a starting pitcher, given the impending free agency of Santana and Harang.

B) To the extent we focus on who we are looking to move, a very important consideration is the extent to which there is a better or cheaper alternative in the system. The main guy who projects as a better cheaper alternative in the upper levels of the minors is Peraza. It is worth noting that Peraza can play all over the field which gives us a lot of flexibility in terms of who we move.

C) It is a truism but bears repeating. Buy cheap and sell dear. In the current situation this especially applies to BJ and CJ. It would clearly be a good thing to be able to move one or both of these guys. They are the weakest links in the everyday lineup and have bad contracts. But I think we want to try to wait for a situation where they have been hot for a month or two and another team develops a need for a center fielder or third baseman. We should not be desperate to dump them.

To answer Rico's question:

1) No I wouldn't try to move Simmons. He is having a down year. Peraza would be a significant downgrade defensively and maybe not much of an upgrade if at all offensively.

2) Heyward to me is our top priority this off-season. If it comes down to being able to sign him or Justin, I'd choose Jason. Of course, I'd rather have both but that might not be possible. Even if we can't sign him, I'd keep him given his expected production in 2015 relative to his salary. Plus we'd get a draft pick after he leaves.

3) Minor is a good bounce back candidate imo and the principle of not trading a player after a down year applies. I'd also keep Avilan and let him compete with Russell and Shreve (and maybe Venters) for the lefty spots in the pen next spring training.

4) To me Gattis is vastly more valuable as a player than Bethancourt taking both offense and defense into account. The offensive drop-off is enormous. This team has trouble scoring runs. The problem would be much worse if we replaced Gattis with Bethancourt in the lineup.

5) We should make Santana a qualifying offer. I would not sign him to a long-term deal. I'd rather use the funds on Jason and/or Justin.

6) BJ for Buehrle is something I'd like to see Wren explore. Colby Rasmus is a free agent after the season and they might have an interest in BJ. There is a bit of a history of hitters turning things around in Toronto.
 
keithlaw said:
Gattis and BJ to the Mariners makes some sense. Their wRC+ from C, DH, and LF are 81, 68, and 89 respectively and their CFs are so bad that BJ would somehow be a legit upgrade.
Click to expand...

In what world is BJ better than Austin Jackson? Even with Jackson having a down year.
 
Simmons you do not trade at this point. His defense adds way to much, plus he is only 24 and his hitting can improve.

Heyward is not worth a big contract in my opinion, in fact I would go so far as to say right now he is really a platoon hitter, he is ML worst against Lh pitching, the hit in jaw thing did its damage to his hitting lefties. Oh and think about this "With Heyward — sorry, I don’t mean to pick on you Jason, you are a wonderful player, this is just to make a point—– he had nine homers and 31 extra-base hits. You know who else had exactly those numbers? His fellow Braves outfielder B.J. Upton"

Minor is someone I would trade in a second, if I could bundle him with BJ, I would do it in a heart beat. Then use the money saved to sign Lester or Scherzer.

Gattis is still superior to Bethancourt, in fact I would consider trading Bethancourt instead

Avilan is like so many relief pitchers, up one year down the next, all to common

I am not overly impressed with Santana, especially at 14M or more a year, I pass

I also am in the minority as I do not see La Stella as a solution to 2b, no power, average batting average, no speed to speak of and not great defensively. If fact I would give Gosselin the chance to rest of this year to see if he is that guy.

Another position that I would try to find an upgrade at is 3b, again no power, not a great fielder and if he is not hitting .320 he is not all that attractive. This would be one of my main targets outside of getting rid of BJ and Minor.

I would target Andrew Miller in the off season and one of Lester or Scherzer as long as I can ship BJ and his salary out. Take the 14M from Santana and the 15M from BJ you should be able to make this kind of move. A rotation with one of those guy and Teheran and Wood you have a pretty solid top 3 in the rotation. You might non-tender Medlen and resign him at a lower salary and hope he can contribute, and they have Hale you can use as a 5th starter.
 
depley said:
Simmons you do not trade at this point. His defense adds way to much, plus he is only 24 and his hitting can improve.

Heyward is not worth a big contract in my opinion, in fact I would go so far as to say right now he is really a platoon hitter, he is ML worst against Lh pitching, the hit in jaw thing did its damage to his hitting lefties. Oh and think about this "With Heyward — sorry, I don’t mean to pick on you Jason, you are a wonderful player, this is just to make a point—– he had nine homers and 31 extra-base hits. You know who else had exactly those numbers? His fellow Braves outfielder B.J. Upton"

Minor is someone I would trade in a second, if I could bundle him with BJ, I would do it in a heart beat. Then use the money saved to sign Lester or Scherzer.

Gattis is still superior to Bethancourt, in fact I would consider trading Bethancourt instead

Avilan is like so many relief pitchers, up one year down the next, all to common

I am not overly impressed with Santana, especially at 14M or more a year, I pass

I also am in the minority as I do not see La Stella as a solution to 2b, no power, average batting average, no speed to speak of and not great defensively. If fact I would give Gosselin the chance to rest of this year to see if he is that guy.

Another position that I would try to find an upgrade at is 3b, again no power, not a great fielder and if he is not hitting .320 he is not all that attractive. This would be one of my main targets outside of getting rid of BJ and Minor.

I would target Andrew Miller in the off season and one of Lester or Scherzer as long as I can ship BJ and his salary out. Take the 14M from Santana and the 15M from BJ you should be able to make this kind of move. A rotation with one of those guy and Teheran and Wood you have a pretty solid top 3 in the rotation. You might non-tender Medlen and resign him at a lower salary and hope he can contribute, and they have Hale you can use as a 5th starter.
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I disagree with pretty much all of this post.

Simmons we've likely seen his best offensive season in last season, he pops the ball up way too often. Maybe he changes and hits more liners and grounders and becomes a higher average below average power guy.

Heyward is hardly a platoon player. He's one year removed from hitting lefties better than righties. There's lots of noise in year to year splits. And Jason may have similar power numbers to Bossman, but that's where the comparisons end. Jason walks more (10.8% vs 8.8%) and strikes out WAAAAAAAAY less (15.7% vs 31%) Is Jason an amazing hitter so far? No. But comparing him to Bossman (whomever wrote that) is moronic as they're not close to similar offensively. Jason has the 3rd lowest K rate of starters (behind TLS and Simmons) and 3rd highest BB rate (Behind Freeman and TLS) Bossman has th ehighest K rate (even higher than the cut Struggla) and his walk rate is only better than the anemic Gattis, Simmons and Johnson.

Minor is the exact opposite of someone you should trade. His ERA is much higher than his FIP which is much higher than his xFIP. All basically point to a likely return to normalcy. His xFIP is right on par with with his career which means he should see his ERA drop much further this year and should see a return to normalcy next year.

I would largely agree with Gattis/Bethancourt/Avilan.

Santana has been really good. This is arguably his second best season ever after 2008. I wouldn't sign him longterm because I don't know if he can keep it up, But he's certainly been very good for us. Better than we should have expected.

You analysis of TLS is so far from the truth. Sure power is a concern. But he's a kid hitting nearly 280 and walking as much as he Ks. Gosselin doesn't walk much, and strikes out much more than TLS and doesn't have any real power to speak of either. I don't get why you'd want to see him.

As far as targets. I wouldn't target Andrew Miller. Relievers who aren't closers are a dime a dozen and he's not better than Kimbrel or Walden. So why invest in him heavily? Unless he can be had for pennies. No one is taking 15M of BJs salary unless we're sending them Simmons/Gattis and taking nothing back and that's not a wise choice.
 
depley said:
Simmons you do not trade at this point. His defense adds way to much, plus he is only 24 and his hitting can improve.

Heyward is not worth a big contract in my opinion, in fact I would go so far as to say right now he is really a platoon hitter, he is ML worst against Lh pitching, the hit in jaw thing did its damage to his hitting lefties. Oh and think about this "With Heyward — sorry, I don’t mean to pick on you Jason, you are a wonderful player, this is just to make a point—– he had nine homers and 31 extra-base hits. You know who else had exactly those numbers? His fellow Braves outfielder B.J. Upton"

Minor is someone I would trade in a second, if I could bundle him with BJ, I would do it in a heart beat. Then use the money saved to sign Lester or Scherzer.

Gattis is still superior to Bethancourt, in fact I would consider trading Bethancourt instead

Avilan is like so many relief pitchers, up one year down the next, all to common

I am not overly impressed with Santana, especially at 14M or more a year, I pass

I also am in the minority as I do not see La Stella as a solution to 2b, no power, average batting average, no speed to speak of and not great defensively. If fact I would give Gosselin the chance to rest of this year to see if he is that guy.

Another position that I would try to find an upgrade at is 3b, again no power, not a great fielder and if he is not hitting .320 he is not all that attractive. This would be one of my main targets outside of getting rid of BJ and Minor.

I would target Andrew Miller in the off season and one of Lester or Scherzer as long as I can ship BJ and his salary out. Take the 14M from Santana and the 15M from BJ you should be able to make this kind of move. A rotation with one of those guy and Teheran and Wood you have a pretty solid top 3 in the rotation. You might non-tender Medlen and resign him at a lower salary and hope he can contribute, and they have Hale you can use as a 5th starter.
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Lol realized it was a waste of time reading this as soon as I saw you say Gosselin may be better than TLS. TLS has no power... Have you followed Gosselins career at all? TLS is Babe Ruth in comparison.
 
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