Why Albies needs to stop hitting so many fly balls

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Enscheff said:
They will start billing him, and that expense will force him to sign an early extension.
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Hey dumbass. What was the launch angle on that bomb today? 5% or 7%?

Sure do wish the little dude would comply with your order. Doesn't he know he's a statistical impossibility, and if he doesn't start hitting the ball on the ground he's not even going to make it to free agency?

Did I hear he's set a team record for extra base hits in April with like, four games left?

I'll await one of your asinine signature bet proposals. Yes, I know he won't continue at this pace, so save it. It's been really fun watching him shove it up your ass every night for a month, though.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Hey dumbass. What was the launch angle on that bomb today? 5% or 7%?

Sure do wish the little dude would comply with your order. Doesn't he know he's a statistical impossibility, and if he doesn't start hitting the ball on the ground he's not even going to make it to free agency?

Did I hear he's set a team record for extra base hits in April with like, four games left?

I'll await one of your asinine signature bet proposals. Yes, I know he won't continue at this pace, so save it. It's been really fun watching him shove it up your ass every night for a month, though.
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Please stick around as the regression in HR rate continues. I don't want to vanishing again as soon as you are proven wrong.

And it's clear you still have no idea what I stated in the original post lol.

Back to filing paperwork you go now you angry little nothing of a man.
 
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He is pacing for what? 45-55 home runs? Of course his home run rate is going to dip tremendously. No one expects 50 home runs out of a speedy 2B. Im not sure were breaking news here. He could finish with 30 and that aint half bad.
 
Looks like his exit velocity is up slightly from last season. Think he's right in the middle of the league now.

I wonder if there are significant differences in average and median for these types of stats for some players. could someone that struggles with a particular pitch or situation have their otherwise hard hitting obscured by that struggle?

Or maybe we might see a difference between hitting R vs hitting L?

I don't think his power looks particularly fluky. maybe he's having an exceptional run but he's looked like he was going to have a little bit of power since he's been up. This seems a bit much to be on pace for 30+ and leading the league. But honestly, you just need the velocity and trajectory to get it over the fence.

If he doesn't have the swing power to generate elite velocity off the bat (that has to be part of what creates it anyway) maybe he can compensate by making unusually square contact more often. Is that what's is happening?

It just seems like an incomplete snapshot.
 
Enscheff said:
LOL, no, 30 HRs ain't half bad.

I can't wait for this all to play out haha.
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Haha. I want to be correct so badly I will actively want a player on my favorite team to not overachieve. We all understand his home run rate will go down. We can also enjoy a young prospect flourishing... 41 players hit above 30 home runs last year. Albies could hit 30. Im not going to bet the house on it.
 
Enscheff said:
Please stick around as the regression in HR rate continues. I don't want to vanishing again as soon as you are proven wrong.

And it's clear you still have no idea what I stated in the original post lol.

Back to filing paperwork you go now you angry little nothing of a man.
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Right. Your thoughts and analysis are too complex for me to understand.

The title to your thread is "Why Albies needs to stop hitting so many fly balls." From that, I take that you think Albies should stop hitting so many fly balls.

What am I missing?
 
BeanieAntics said:
If he is ever going to get to 30 homers, this is the season to do it. He has gotten one heck of a head start. I think most seasons he will hit around 20.
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Yup. If a guy is a true-talent 20 HR bat, all it takes is 1 silly month like this to post a 30 HR season.

This is how career years happen. It's important to realize what really happened though when projecting into the future so teams don't end up with another CJ contract.

Albies has a below average exit velocity on LDs and FBs, so it stands to reason he will settle in around league average or worse HR rate...which usually ends up around 13%.

Give Albies 600 PAs, with 40-50 BBs and ~100 Ks, and you're looking at ~450 balls in play. If 40% are FBs, and 13% of them fly out of the ballpark, that's 23 HRs. Add a lucky streak in April and suddenly that's a 30 HR year.

I don't expect Albies to continue with a FB rate of 40%+ when his HR rate regresses into the low teens though.
 
Enscheff said:
Yup. If a guy is a true-talent 20 HR bat, all it takes is 1 silly month like this to post a 30 HR season.

This is how career years happen. It's important to realize what really happened though when projecting into the future so teams don't end up with another CJ contract.

Albies has a below average exit velocity on LDs and FBs, so it stands to reason he will settle in around league average or worse HR rate...which usually ends up around 13%.

Give Albies 600 PAs, with 40-50 BBs and ~100 Ks, and you're looking at ~450 balls in play. If 40% are FBs, and 13% of them fly out of the ballpark, that's 23 HRs. Add a lucky streak in April and suddenly that's a 30 HR year.

I don't expect Albies to continue with a FB rate of 40%+ when his HR rate regresses into the low teens though.
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Exactly. I do think that its important to say that, even at 20 homers, Ozzie would be one of the most valuable players in baseball. We were talking about him being a top player when we were projecting 10 homers a year for him. If he hits 20 with lots of doubles and maybe a .200 ISO then he is going to be very very very special.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Right. Your thoughts and analysis are too complex for me to understand.

The title to your thread is "Why Albies needs to stop hitting so many fly balls." From that, I take that you think Albies should stop hitting so many fly balls.

What am I missing?
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OK, I'll quote you to show your complete misunderstanding of the topic.

GovClintonTyree said:
your whole Joe Simpson "hit is down and use your speed" approach that you were advocating was pretty darn retarded.
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That's not even close to what I stated. You clearly misunderstood.

GovClintonTyree said:
Is there an optimum launch angle for a particular exit speed? I would think despite Albies' size, his exit speed is above average. In which case, he ought to go ahead and elevate the ball at times, considering he seems to barrel up more than his share.
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You asked a question about something I already clearly explained. This can only mean you either didn't read the article, or didn't understand it.

You then proceeded to claim Albies has above average exit velocities, which is demonstrably false.

GovClintonTyree said:
BTW, your "launch angles between 5 and 20 percent comment" might be one of the stupidest things you've ever said. Might as well say, "somewhere between Dee Gordon and Kris Bryant,"
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That comment caps off your display of ignorance about the topic of discussion. Every exit velocity has an optimal range of launch angles, as described in the article I linked. Again, you either didn't read it, or didn't understand it.

Further, you are referencing launch angles as percentages. I'm not even confident you know what an "angle" is.

So yeah, it's safe to say you are completely clueless about the topic, and are still referencing an unsustainable HR rate as the basis of your argument.

In short, all available evidence (your direct quotes) shows you don't understand what is being discussed. Shocking...
 
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Enscheff said:
Yup. If a guy is a true-talent 20 HR bat, all it takes is 1 silly month like this to post a 30 HR season.

This is how career years happen. It's important to realize what really happened though when projecting into the future so teams don't end up with another CJ contract.

Albies has a below average exit velocity on LDs and FBs, so it stands to reason he will settle in around league average or worse HR rate...which usually ends up around 13%.

Give Albies 600 PAs, with 40-50 BBs and ~100 Ks, and you're looking at ~450 balls in play. If 40% are FBs, and 13% of them fly out of the ballpark, that's 23 HRs. Add a lucky streak in April and suddenly that's a 30 HR year.

I don't expect Albies to continue with a FB rate of 40%+ when his HR rate regresses into the low teens though.
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It is hard to tell from the spray charts if I am 100% correct, but I don't believe Albies has hit an opposite field home run to this point. When I gripe about his flyball frequency, it's that I don't think it's a particularly good idea for him to hit fly balls to the opposite field because more than likely, they will be easy outs. Albies is surprisingly strong, but I don't think he's strong enough to consistently do extra base damage going to the opposite field. It doesn't mean he shouldn't take outside pitches to the opposite field. It's just that he needs to concentrate on not getting too far under the ball when he does that.

It goes back to something Ted Williams said in The Science of Hitting about Eddie Brinkman, his SS when he managed the Senators. Brinkman was never a great hitter, but he improved under Williams because Teddy Ballgame drilled it into him that if he was trying to go to RF (Brinkman's opposite field), it needed to either be a line drive or on the ground.
 
Enscheff said:
OK, I'll quote you to show your complete misunderstanding of the topic.



That's not even close to what I stated. You clearly misunderstood.



You asked a question about something I already clearly explained. This can only mean you either didn't read the article, or didn't understand it.

You then proceeded to claim Albies has above average exit velocities, which is demonstrably false.



That comment caps off your display of ignorance about the topic of discussion. Every exit velocity has an optimal range of launch angles, as described in the article I linked. Again, you either didn't read it, or didn't understand it.

So yeah, it's safe to say you are completely clueless about the topic, and are still referencing an unsustainable HR rate as the basis of your argument.

In short, you don't understand what is being discussed. Shocking...
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What's that? Can't hear you. Angry sociopath getting strident.

Hey, how many extra base hits is that for Albies? 19? In a hundred at bats? That's crazy! Maybe we underestimated his ability to hit for power.

Well, he can't keep going at that pace, but it sure is fun to watch.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What's that? Can't hear you. Angry sociopath getting strident.

Hey, how many extra base hits is that for Albies? 19? In a hundred at bats? That's crazy! Maybe we underestimated his ability to hit for power.

Well, he can't keep going at that pace, but it sure is fun to watch.
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LOL...Excellent attempt at a side step.

You still have no idea what we are discussing, as evidenced by each and every comment you make.

Just stop trying to play outside your brain pan and enjoy the pretty green grass and colorful uniforms. There is filing that needs to be done somewhere, so get on it before an intern replaces you.
 
Enscheff said:
LOL...Excellent attempt at a side step.

You still have no idea what we are discussing, as evidenced by each and every comment you make.

Just stop trying to play outside your brain pan and enjoy the pretty green grass and colorful uniforms. There is filing that needs to be done somewhere, so get on it before an intern replaces you.
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How can you disagree with any of that?

He has been fun to watch. Looks like he may have more power than we thought. He can't possibly keep it up. And you're a sociopath.

It's all pretty non-controversial stuff to me. What do you disagree with?
 
Deester11 said:
Pretty good thought. Funny because his leg kick was more pronounced when he came up last year and started hitting so many fly balls. When he toned it down last year he was back to being an extra base hit machine who drove the ball when he got HIS pitch. Here's hoping he'll gain that consistency.
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The interesting thing is, doing some comparison and going off of memory, while he likely did adjust some things I can't notice, looking at some video from last year and comparing to this year and even some last, it seems like he has abandoned what they wanted him to do, which was only a small leg kick from the left. It's still not as pronounced as his right side, but he has one.

I can't exactly say that decision has worked because his left side has been so-so but if he can manage to pull off average on that side and amazing on his right it doesn't matter what he does to be honest.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The interesting thing is, doing some comparison and going off of memory, while he likely did adjust some things I can't notice, looking at some video from last year and comparing to this year and even some last, it seems like he has abandoned what they wanted him to do, which was only a small leg kick from the left. It's still not as pronounced as his right side, but he has one.

I can't exactly say that decision has worked because his left side has been so-so but if he can manage to pull off average on that side and amazing on his right it doesn't matter what he does to be honest.
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I've got video of his Rome years and it is uncanny the difference. Before the exaggerated leg kick, he had one but it didn't seem as pronounced. The further into the season he got, it became a timing thing for him. When he is on, that barrel sound is a thing of beauty.
 
Deester11 said:
I've got video of his Rome years and it is uncanny the difference. Before the exaggerated leg kick, he had one but it didn't seem as pronounced. The further into the season he got, it became a timing thing for him. When he is on, that barrel sound is a thing of beauty.
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Yep you're right. I'm briefly looking at Rome video and it seemed like he fiddled back and forth between the smaller one and the exaggerated one. We saw the same thing last year and this year, I may be wrong but it seems like he's stuck with exaggerated.

(the smaller one looks a little Chipper influenced even before Chipper reportedly helped him...)
 
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