Why Albies needs to stop hitting so many fly balls

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gilesfan said:
I didn't realize it was simply based on the majors or in other words less than half of what is needed to perform any meaningful analysis.
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And yet here you are, unsurprisingly missing the point of the thread, again...

The title is "Why Albies needs to stop hitting fly balls".

The title is not "Albies hits too many fly balls and will always hit too many fly balls".

Is the difference clear to you? Or should I look forward to another pointless response?
 
Enscheff said:
And yet here you are, unsurprisingly missing the point of the thread, again...

The title is "Why Albies needs to stop hitting fly balls".

The title is not "Albies hits too many fly balls and will always hit too many fly balls".

Is the difference clear to you? Or should I look forward to another pointless response?
Click to expand...

Tomorrow, you should tell us why Max Fried needs to stop walking so many hitters. Explain why walking a hitter an inning is bad.
 
Yup, another pointless response.

The data presented was supposed to start a discussion of when players should try to elevate more balls since someone in a game thread said "hitting more fly balls is good". I suppose it was silly of me to try to get a conversation going in a forum where anti-intellectuals such as yourself lurk.

I guess I expected too much from multi-millionaire real estate magnates like you haha.
 
Some hint as to why Albies is hitting so many FBs might have to do with how pitchers are attacking him.

Here is a heat map of all FAs thrown to Albies so far this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=FA&season=all&data=pi

compared to someone with average power like Swanson:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=FA&season=all&data=

Perhaps pitchers are making a concerted effort to elevate FAs in order to get Albies to hit harmless FBs.

It appears to be working so far, as evidenced by his FB rate of almost 50%.
 
Enscheff said:
Some hint as to why Albies is hitting so many FBs might have to do with how pitchers are attacking him.

Here is a heat map of all FAs thrown to Albies so far this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=FA&season=all&data=pi

compared to someone with average power like Swanson:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=FA&season=all&data=

Perhaps pitchers are making a concerted effort to elevate FAs in order to get Albies to hit harmless FBs.

It appears to be working so far, as evidenced by his FB rate of almost 50%.
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or maybe it is because he is short...what is Altuve's chart look like?
 
bravesguy said:
or maybe it is because he is short...what is Altuve's chart look like?
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Interesting thought, I can't believe it didn't occur to me haha.

It doesn't look like pitchers are attacking Altuve up this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=FA&season=all&data=

but they did seem to attack him up more when he didn't have his present power:

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.a...grid=10&view=bat&pitch=FA&season=2012&data=pi

I think Albies is going to have to work on laying off pitches up to avoid FBs.
 
Would be curious to get an update on his swings, as it seems is if he's taken that comment to heart. After his 2-17 start, Oz is hitting .313 over his last 17 games, (20/64) with five doubles, four triples and a homer.
 
There have been 360 hitters who have hit 20+ fly balls in 2017.

Albies ranks #329 in xwOBA on fly balls with a .230 mark. He should not be hitting the ball in the air.

For reference, Stanton is the best at .970, and Judge 2nd at .858...they should be hitting fly balls.

As far as Braves go it's pretty much what you expect:

1 Matt Kemp 0.607
2 Freddie Freeman 0.537
3 Matt Adams 0.501
4 Johan Camargo 0.416
5 Kurt Suzuki 0.366
6 Tyler Flowers 0.363
7 Brandon Phillips 0.362
8 Adonis Garcia 0.312
9 Nick Markakis 0.296
10 Dansby Swanson 0.261
11 Danny Santana 0.260
12 Ozzie Albies 0.230
13 Ender Inciarte 0.199
 
There are currently 426 MLB players with 75 or more ABs in 2017. Albies ranks #55 in xwOBA-xOBA with a -0.045 mark.

This means that based on his batted ball profile, he would be expected to have a .312 wOBA. He actually has a .357 wOBA.

Albies is currently getting lucky based on his batted ball profile.

However, I don't expect his batted ball profile to remain as it is. I expect his LD% to increase and his FB% to decrease (it is already down to 44.8% from over 50%). This will allow him to sustain production around his current level as his luck starts to change.

For reference, here are the Braves who have been lucky/unlucky. No surprises here, this list confirms which players we know are benefiting from luck this season:

1 Ender Inciarte 0.274 - 0.329 -0.055
2 Ozzie Albies 0.312 - 0.357 -0.045
3 Johan Camargo 0.295 - 0.336 -0.041
4 Kurt Suzuki 0.336 - 0.375 -0.039
5 Freddie Freeman 0.406 - 0.438 -0.032
6 Matt Adams 0.342 - 0.362 -0.020
7 Brandon Phillips 0.311 - 0.330 -0.019
8 Danny Santana 0.247 - 0.260 -0.013
9 Tyler Flowers 0.352 - 0.365 -0.013
10 Nick Markakis 0.330 - 0.338 -0.008
11 Matt Kemp 0.363 - 0.355 0.008
12 Dansby Swanson 0.299 - 0.289 0.010
13 Adonis Garcia 0.305 - 0.280 0.025
14 Jace Peterson 0.305 - 0.263 0.042
15 Rio Ruiz 0.307 - 0.251 0.056
 
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