Why are the BABIP Gods Picking on Our Hitters

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Freeman .334 career versus .310 2016

Inciarte .314 vs .268

Markakis .316 vs .280

Aybar .301 vs .227

Pierzynski .297 vs .230

Some of the guys who play less than half the time are doing well relative to career averages. But all of those who could be considered regulars are under-performing their career numbers.

The BABIP gods need to be appeased, for 2017 if not for the rest of this year. Who will step forward with the requisite sacrifice?
 
nsacpi said:
Freeman .334 career versus .310 2016

Inciarte .314 vs .268

Markakis .316 vs .280

Aybar .301 vs .227

Pierzynski .297 vs .230

Some of the guys who play less than half the time are doing well relative to career averages. But all of those who could be considered regulars are under-performing their career numbers.

The BABIP gods need to be appeased, for 2017 if not for the rest of this year. Who will step forward with the requisite sacrifice?
Click to expand...

we can sacrifice Aybar..
 
Perhaps it is repayment for all the hitting luck we had in the first half of 2015.

But seriously, if regression was to be realistically anticipated at about this time last year, I think a similar case can be made but in the opposite direction this year.
 
nsacpi said:
Freeman .334 career versus .310 2016

Inciarte .314 vs .268

Markakis .316 vs .280

Aybar .301 vs .227

Pierzynski .297 vs .230

Some of the guys who play less than half the time are doing well relative to career averages. But all of those who could be considered regulars are under-performing their career numbers.

The BABIP gods need to be appeased, for 2017 if not for the rest of this year. Who will step forward with the requisite sacrifice?
Click to expand...

Look at the quality of the contact. Freeman for example is hitting the same amount of line drives he normally does but his FB% is 42 compared to 35 for his career. So that is likely the main culprit in the difference in BABIP for him. The good news is that his HR/FB ratio has stayed constant so the increased FB% is leading to more homeruns and he's on pace for a career high. The bad news is that his K% is near 26 which is the main reason he's not hitting as well this year.

The last 3 you could just look as players getting older and having weak contact and slower to first on possible infield hits. I haven't

every game but I see Nick, Aybar, and AJ making tons of weak contact.
 
I usually just follow along on Gameday, so I can't tell about quality of contact. I think one can expect a fall-off from a 40-year-old. Not sure about the other guys. What I have noticed is that we haven't gotten the big hit much this season. Mallex or Ender gets a hit with the bases juiced last night and we probably win.
 
50PoundHead said:
I usually just follow along on Gameday, so I can't tell about quality of contact. I think one can expect a fall-off from a 40-year-old. Not sure about the other guys. What I have noticed is that we haven't gotten the big hit much this season. Mallex or Ender gets a hit with the bases juiced last night and we probably win.
Click to expand...

We had terrific luck with hitting with RISP and also pinch hitting the first half of last year. This year our average with RISP is about the same as our overall average.
 
thewupk said:
Look at the quality of the contact. Freeman for example is hitting the same amount of line drives he normally does but his FB% is 42 compared to 35 for his career. So that is likely the main culprit in the difference in BABIP for him. The good news is that his HR/FB ratio has stayed constant so the increased FB% is leading to more homeruns and he's on pace for a career high. The bad news is that his K% is near 26 which is the main reason he's not hitting as well this year.

The last 3 you could just look as players getting older and having weak contact and slower to first on possible infield hits. I haven't
every game but I see Nick, Aybar, and AJ making tons of weak contact.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. Just going by the eye test, AJ is not making a lot of good contact—noticeably different than last year. His batted-ball numbers back this up...LD% is down. Nick is right on his career LD numbers and his exit velocity is up from last year. I think he was very lucky on BIP last year and not so much now. I'd expect him to get a few more to fall as the season progresses. Aybar is, as you say, making a distressing amount of weak contact.
 
Julio3000 said:
Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. Just going by the eye test, AJ is not making a lot of good contact—noticeably different than last year. His batted-ball numbers back this up...LD% is down. Nick is right on his career LD numbers and his exit velocity is up from last year. I think he was very lucky on BIP last year and not so much now. I'd expect him to get a few more to fall as the season progresses. Aybar is, as you say, making a distressing amount of weak contact.
Click to expand...

Inciarte's LD% is slightly higher than his career average.

Aybar's LD% this year is 20.0% from 21.0% last year and 19.8% career. His BABIP last year was .300.

AJ is really the only one where the drop in LD% comes close to explaining the drop in BABIP.
 
nsacpi said:
Inciarte's LD% is slightly higher than his career average.

Aybar's LD% this year is 20.0% from 21.0% last year and 19.8% career. His BABIP last year was .300.

AJ is really the only one where the drop in LD% comes close to explaining the drop in BABIP.
Click to expand...

Aybar has exit velo that's way below league average.
 
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