Will the real Jason Heyward please stand up?

I hate to say it, but if Heyward becomes a bust offensively, I think that broken jaw will have imparted a lot of the mental and psychological damage of the confidence he had up there at the plate.
 
zitothebrave said:
I'd rather sign both of them. Both are great players. BUt if I had to choose gun to my head I take Jason because his ceiling is way higher.
Click to expand...

I'd choose Justin. He's clearly the superior offensive player, and the importance of defense, particularly at corner outfield positions, is overrated by advanced metrics.

DRS and UZR are just not terribly useful or predictive. Yes, Jason, Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra are excellent defensive outfielders, but their value does not eclipse that of an average one who is a great hitter, say, Giancarlo Stanton. I'm not sure how smart people stand behind a metric that consistently shows anomalies like that.
 
I'm so biased when it comes to how much I like Jason. haha but it can get a bit frustrating. His defense honestly makes up for much of his offensive fails, but he still is a productive at-bat more than not in my opinion. I don't understand what goes through his mind or why he doesn't move up a little bit to the plate, but he's not far from being a guy that can hit for a .280 AVG, .380 OBP, 20+ homers, 20+ steals and 70+ RBIs. Just my two-cents!
 
Jason now has 2300 PAs. His slash line is .256/.349/.435. That is almost identical to the average right fielder in that time frame.

I think bc of his athletic tools most Braves fans think that he could break out any moment (and he's still young). But, it may be time to not look at Jason as a future superstar and start looking at him as an above average to good right fielder. Average bat/great glove.

The lack of good defensive right fielders completely puts his WAR numbers out of wack. I would seriously consider moving him to CF full-time if he can maintain that high level defense in center. I don't think he's ever going to hit like the great RFers in the game. Put him in center where his value would sky rocket.
 
It's not like we're waiting for Jason to reach the next level offensively based on hope, he has been to that level, in his rookie season. He's shown that he can do it, but unlike most hitters, he hadn't been able to stay at or surpass that level. It's like he isn't able to make the necessary adjustments to make himself a better hitter. I'm sure that ball to the face didn't help.
You guys can make all the excuses you like about freak injuries or baabip, but in the end he either produces or he doesn't. Even if he never gets any better than he is now, I hope to see him in right field for many more years, but not at the price he will want. You don't pay big bucks for defense.
 
gtcway said:
It's not like we're waiting for Jason to reach the next level offensively based on hope, he has been to that level, in his rookie season. He's shown that he can do it, but unlike most hitters, he hadn't been able to stay at or surpass that level. It's like he isn't able to make the necessary adjustments to make himself a better hitter. I'm sure that ball to the face didn't help.
You guys can make all the excuses you like about freak injuries or baabip, but in the end he either produces or he doesn't. Even if he never gets any better than he is now, I hope to see him in right field for many more years, but not at the price he will want. You don't pay big bucks for defense.
Click to expand...

But there's this thing called "scouting" and they are pretty good at that at the big league level. Heyward's strengths and weaknesses are now known and the question has to be, "Is he making adjustments?" I don't think he's going to be a total bust offensively. His selectivity at the plate is likely going to produce a fair number of walks and defensively, he's golden. So it's not like he's this total stiff running around out there ala Uggla.

But he is going to have to make adjustments. I get tired of Joe Simpson's "go the other way" talk because it only tells half the story and insinuates that Heyward should become a Punch-and-Judy hitter. It's hitting the ball the other way with authority (and in Freeman, we've got a guy who does that as well as anyone in the bigs right now) that matters and I don't know if Heyward is ever going to be that guy. The problem Heyward has if he's going to stand that far off the plate, pitchers are going to work him low-and-away and if he continues to try to pull that pitch, he's never going to be a great hitter. He brings enough to the table that he doesn't have to be a great hitter, but, at least to me, it is what it is.
 
I'll say it again...despite sucking offensively this season Jason is still tied for sixth best WAR in the NL at 1.2...the is with the negative offensive WAR. I'm not saying what Jason has done on offense is acceptable because of his defense, but it is what it is. I don't know that Heyward will ever be what everyone thought he would be, but he's on pace to put up a similar defensive WAR as Simmons last season.
 
The problem with defensive metrics is they assume you can add defensive contributions up to infinite, like offensive contributions. Problem is, on a macro level, you can only "prevent" as many runs as the other team would have scored. Offensive contributions can add up infinitely, but defensive ones can not.

Also, there is no way in any sane universe that Heyward has been as valuable as Freeman this year. Any stat that claims that is in dire need of re-evaluation.
 
Enscheff said:
The problem with defensive metrics is they assume you can add defensive contributions up to infinite, like offensive contributions. Problem is, on a macro level, you can only "prevent" as many runs as the other team would have scored. Offensive contributions can add up infinitely, but defensive ones can not.

Also, there is no way in any sane universe that Heyward has been as valuable as Freeman this year. Any stat that claims that is in dire need of re-evaluation.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Or compare Stanton to Heyward. There just aren't enough plays available for a right fielder to make the type of impact that WAR claims to have been made. I don't think the "reward" for Heyward is justified based on having a handful of stiffs attempt to play RF.
 
I personally don't like Jason in the leadoff position. It's not that he can't thrive there, or that he hasn't (at times) enjoyed success there -- but I can't help but wonder if the 'table-setter' mindset is messing with his swing. Move Andrelton up, bat Heyward 7/8, and let him figure things out in a different (more conventionally geared toward basic offensive production) role. Granted, given Andrelton's current approach, he's not exactly the best fit there either. I could get behind a TLS call-up if he was utilized as a leadoff hitter.
 
I agree with you guys...in no way has Heyward been close to as valuable as Freeman or J. Up...or even Gattis. I can't even say that Heyward has had a positive effect on the team based on what I've seen, but the WAR stat seems to believe he has been somehow.
 
Orphan Black said:
I don't get it. To me his offensive struggles have exceeded his great defense so far this season despite what WAR says.
Click to expand...

I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.
 
Heyward said:
I agree you dont get it.

He's saved a ton of runs.

Defense matters greatly, ask our pitchers if his defense makes no difference the way you make it seem.
Click to expand...

Whatever dude...I didn't say defense doesn't matter...I said his offense has hurt the team more than his defense has helped it no matter what WAR says. Learn to read.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top