Williams perez

[bravos4evr]

He's no where close to becoming Aybar, that would be more than a huge slip on defense for him and isn't likely at all. In fact, that sounds "awfully dramatic" to say IMO. Further, I don't think it's "awfully dramatic" to consider a trade blowing up in our faces if Newcomb busts or becomes a number 4 starter in MLB while Ellis becomes a reliever as expected. While at the same time Simmons continues to be great on defense and when he declines but is still great his offense will likely improve off-setting it as is often the case (see fangraph's piece on similar players in that regard, though I'd argue Simmons isn't as easy to compare that way being so special on defense at a position where defense is so important).

I was referring to his bat and how being that it is fairly mediocre - bad, if his defense declines to avg, he has very little value, aybar was hyperbole.

EDIT:

While at the same time Simmons continues to be great on defense and when he declines but is still great his offense will likely improve off-setting it as is often the case

well, simba has a problem different than many of the players from that article, he is a free swinger with a low K and BB rate, sure he might improve , but he is starting from such a low level that he'd have to do something that rarely happens. change his entire approach to hitting.

I could see Simmons being a 2-3 win player on defense alone for ten years. I could also see him being replacement level in 3

and "likely" isn't a word I would describe. there isn't a lot of evidence for that, there is some evidence for "might"

 

[Braves1976]

I was referring to his bat

Anything Simmons gives with his bat is a bonus in my book. Aybar even in his gold glove days wasn't in the same zip code as Simmons on defense (though Aybar's bat was better and that likely had something to do with that gold glove the way they give them out). Further, I don't see Simmons bat slipping further long term, if anything I expect it to improve as he ages while his defense slightly declines and overall the package stays about the same. I guess I value that amazing defense of Simmons at short more than you and others around here do (though funny some talked otherwise before the trade, interesting how that goes IMO).

 

[bravos4evr]

dude, it was hyperbole, you are running way too off the reservation with the aybar thing.........

if Simmobs's defense declines (and it will eventually, the question is how much) if his bat stays 70ish wRC+ he starts to have 1-2 WAR value, and that's not all that hard to find for a few mill a year much less at $14m a yr.

I hope it doesn't happens and he figures it out as he is a dynamite fielder,but not all athletes age the same.

 

[bravos4evr]

as to the posts about "I expect him to improve with the bat as he ages " thing, that doesn't happen very often, Ozzie Smith made it happen, but he had already posted 10% walk rates before he improved his hitting, he cut his K's down and added a few more BB% pts and this greatly added to his hitting value due to OBP, but his ISO didn't get much better (and even with all that his career wRC+ was 90)

Simmons has a career BB% of 6%, that is not very good. He would need to find 3+% BB%, AND improve his hard contact and line drive % to improve in the same manner say Ozzie did.

Look at him this year, wRC+ of 46, maybe one of his best defensive years (in SSS due to injury) and yet he's been worth exactly 0 WAR (again the injury doesn't help that) a guy like Simmons should be posting 4 WAR years left and right.... his approach or our coaching, sumthing has gotten him in knots.

or maybe the bat just is never going to play up.

If Simmons provides 9 WAR over the next 3.5 seasons we have 12 man seasons worth of Newcomb and Ellis to get there. Maybe they can, maybe they can't, but it wouldn't be that difficult of a chore if they did, nor if they exceeded it. Hell, with Newcomb's ceiling, he could end up a 5 WAR pitcher on his own and this might be the best trade of all.

I miss simmons too, but we can't let emotions get in the way of cold, hard analysis.

 

[Braves1976]

dude, it was hyperbole, you are running way too off the reservation with the aybar thing.........

if Simmobs's defense declines (and it will eventually, the question is how much) if his bat stays 70ish wRC+ he starts to have 1-2 WAR value, and that's not all that hard to find for a few mill a year much less at $14m a yr.

I hope it doesn't happens and he figures it out as he is a dynamite fielder,but not all athletes age the same.

I didn't see your edit till after my response so I'm not sure how I am doing that exactly? I guess by not assuming hyperbole initially? That said, I don't see the danger of decline on his defense being anything on substance or real concern for a while. While right now I look at all the other shortstops in MLB and say Simmons is in a league of his own concerning defense. Save maybe Crawford of the Giants who has had an amazing year here and there of late.

 

[The Tariff King]

If Simmons' defense declines, he goes from All-Time Once In A Lifetime to league elite to above average.

Barring any significant injuries, he could still be an above average to really dang good defender to his 40's.

 

[bravos4evr]

If Simmons' defense declines, he goes from All-Time Once In A Lifetime to league elite to above average.

Barring any significant injuries, he could still be an above average to really dang good defender to his 40's.

sure he could be, but if his bat ends up a 65 wRC+ he becomes replacement level. He would be the reverse Adam Dunn!

Like I said I hope it doesn't happen and I loved watching him play SS, but I understand WHY they made the trade, and I think overall it probably provides at least some excess value (I do think it was a little light, but no way I expected Aybar to such THIS bad) but the reason for the trade is fundamentally sound.