Winter Meetings Thread

This is how I picture Ensheff.

[video=youtube;OCauiZ2Sfb8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCauiZ2Sfb8[/video]
 
Heyward said:
No, 40 mil is too much.

There's a ton of good FA's that year that can be had for a bit less.
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40 million a year is a tough number to swallow. But when we see 2 WAR at best closers making 16 million a year it's not that bad. In 2 years I can see 1 WAR being worth 10 million. If you can pay 40 million for what you think is going to be a top 5 player in the league then I would certainly do it. Because at that point I think you are going to see average players entering FA in their late 20's making 20 million a year.
 
Enscheff said:
Ok dum dum, here's how you break down and value players.

Ross is projected to be worth 2 WAR next year. He has 5 years of club control remaining, and is making league minimum now. Over those 5 seasons he projects for about 10-12 WAR at a cost of about $20m. That comes to about $60m-$70m in surplus value.

Teheran is controlled for 3 years at $31m. He projects to produce about 10-12 WAR over that time. That comes out to a surplus value of $50m-$60m.

So Ross might actually be considered a more valuable trade piece than Julio already.he is certainly already "approaching" Julio's value, which is what I stated. I'm sure you can't grasp how this all works, but teams evaluate player values in a manner very close to that.

Anyways, back to your usual derpy posting you go. And go ahead and change that signature when you get the chance sunshine.
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The problem with using surplus value as you have done is you are assuming $/WAR is linear and is constant per market. Specifically, it tends to overate players on the lower end of the spectrum (1-2 WAR) due to how easy they are to replace.
 
chop2chip said:
The problem with using surplus value as you have done is you are assuming $/WAR is linear and is constant per market. Specifically, it tends to overate players on the lower end of the spectrum (1-2 WAR) due to how easy they are to replace.
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It's pretty linear up to around 3 WAR and then you start getting more bang for your buck for the superstar players. The actual $/WAR does change (usually up) per offseason but trades/FA signings are gauged on what the market is showing in that given year.

Market value FA signings of the 1-2 WAR types are among the worst value you can actually get.(see Markakis) But those players and markets do exist. Joe Ross as just a 2 WAR player for 5 more years is extremely valuable.
 
thewupk said:
It's pretty linear up to around 3 WAR and then you start getting more bang for your buck for the superstar players. The actual $/WAR does change (usually up) per offseason but trades/FA signings are gauged on what the market is showing in that given year.

Market value FA signings of the 1-2 WAR types are among the worst value you can actually get.(see Markakis) But those players and markets do exist. Joe Ross as just a 2 WAR player for 5 more years is extremely valuable.
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Yeah, it's interesting. People think the 1-2 WAR guys are the ones you can easily get whenever you need them, which is true, but in reality you also end up spending quite a bit of money on them as well.

So if you're able to fill those slots with young guys from the farm, it's a huge value.
 
MIL is doing the right thing by trading Thornburg given their rebuild timing, IMO.

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Enscheff said:
Do you know who Joe Ross is? He more valuable than Folty, and probably approaching Teheran in trade value. Getting him for Cutch would be far from "giving him away" lmao
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rossjoeebio.jpg


Everyone knows who Joe Ross is. Ooh! Ooh! Jumpin' Jehoshaphat!
 
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dak said:
MIL is doing the right thing by trading Thornburg given their rebuild timing, IMO.

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The Brew crew has done a great job with their rebuild as well. This is a great move for the Sox though. The bullpen is pretty darn solid with really good pitcher sprinkled in -- i.e. Kimbrel and now Thornburg.

If they do add someone like Sale, they'll be really dangerous. The offense is beyond stacked and I wonder if this means that they are going with Pablo?

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UNCBlue012 said:
The Brew crew has done a great job with their rebuild as well. This is a great move for the Sox though. The bullpen is pretty darn solid with really good pitcher sprinkled in -- i.e. Kimbrel and now Thornburg.

If they do add someone like Sale, they'll be really dangerous. The offense is beyond stacked and I wonder if this means that they are going with Pablo?

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Looks like Pedro went for the P90 X-squared workout program.
 
Tapate50 said:
Any of those prospects have heat?
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Don't know a ton about the three players. Dubon seems to be a pretty valuable prospect. Maybe equivalent to someone like Demeritte in our system? Travis Shaw similar in value to Adonis maybe? Thornburg is a nice setup RP with 3 years of control, but coming off a career year and likely to regress.
 
Travis Shaw is a much better player than Garcia though. Dubon is also a better prospoct than Demeritte bc he's SS capable and absolutely raked in AA last year.
 
Knowing they got quality back, I certainly listen for offers on Viz. We have the arms on the way to fill in.
 
gilesfan said:
Travis Shaw is a much better player than Garcia though. Dubon is also a better prospoct than Demeritte bc he's SS capable and absolutely raked in AA last year.
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I think I'd rather have Shaw than Garcia, and I'd rather have Demeritte than Dubon.
 
smootness said:
Meh. It's mostly prospect fatigue. And I'm not going to take an article from a supposed analytical site that uses the term 'anecdotally' in any context.

Giolito may not hit, some top prospects don't. He's still the most talented guy the Nats have.
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There are real concerns with Giolito, that point is clear.

If I was the Nats, I would have zero issue trading Giolito (even if some think he will turn into Wainwright). Personally, I like Lopez better and the presence of Fedde softens the blow. Giolito would rank behind Robles for sure, but maybe even Lopez.
 
dak said:
I think I'd rather have Shaw than Garcia, and I'd rather have Demeritte than Dubon.
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Demeritte has upside because of his power, but the strikeouts in the minors are a red flag. Dubon playing SS would make me prefer him.
 
gilesfan said:
There are real concerns with Giolito, that point is clear.

If I was the Nats, I would have zero issue trading Giolito (even if some think he will turn into Wainwright). Personally, I like Lopez better and the presence of Fedde softens the blow. Giolito would rank behind Robles for sure, but maybe even Lopez.
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BP has Robles ahead of Giolito now but he's still ahead of Lopez.
 
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