I'm not. Look at the leaders in OBP in any given year. Nearly every single player near a .400 OBP has 20 HR power. There are a few players like Fowler or Mauer that take so many walks that they overcome their lack of power, but in general it's hard to get that kind of OBP without power, because pitchers aren't going to be afraid to attack hitters that aren't as likely to crush the ball into the stands.
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Winter Meetings Thread
- Thread starter rico43
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I'm not. Look at the leaders in OBP in any given year. Nearly every single player near a .400 OBP has 20 HR power. There are a few players like Fowler or Mauer that take so many walks that they overcome their lack of power, but in general it's hard to get that kind of OBP without power, because pitchers aren't going to be afraid to attack hitters that aren't as likely to crush the ball into the stands.
Im not sure what Heyward is laughing at.
The most overated concept on this board is depth with prospects. If you give me 5 A prospects and a bunch of C prospects or 10 B prospects, you go with the high end prospects all day every day. The White Sox farm system is set up for the future. They possibly have 3 starters and an extremely good middle infielder. Who cares how many fringe utility and number 6 starters they have?
The depth in our system is not made up of utility guys and #6 starters. We don't have 10 B prospects, we have 2-3 A prospects and about 15 B prospects, several of whom project to be potential A prospects down the road.
Go sort the MLB stats page by OBP and tell me how many guys post a "near .400 OBP" without hitting double digit HRs. Then come back here and explain how likely it is that Albies will post such a high OBP with so little power. I'll wait for your response.
Having said that, he can still be an extremely valuable player with a .300/.350/.400 line if he ends up being an excellent defender at 2B.
On Base Percentage has ZERO to do with HRs! If he hit 200 Singles, Walked 100+ times and say was HBP 20+ times in 600 ABs tell me what his On Base Percentage would be people?! It's the amount of times he gets on base not the total bases!
Eaton's value spike last year was due to a sudden jump in defensive value. If you assume that was more mirage than truth, which I thought NL is reasonable, this is a pretty bad deal for the Nats. I've seen some refer to the Shelby deal in comparison.
Dude was also worth 1.8 dWAR in 2014 playing mostly CF. He was pretty average in small samples in 2013 and 2012. If any year appears to be the abberation, it's 2015.
He has been a very consistent 120 OPS+ hitter, and that certainly isn't going away.
Eaton is easily a 4+ WAR player, and possibly 5+ WAR if his defense holds up.
On Base Percentage has ZERO to do with HRs! If he hit 200 Singles, Walked 100+ times and say was HBP 20+ times in 600 ABs tell me what his On Base Percentage would be people?! It's the amount of times he gets on base not the total bases!
They know this.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...8FlOsOIlcITboyHmQ&sig2=wvvVHg_9IqnMjXvtqyWz6A
Again you guys are confusing OPS with OBP!
Again you guys are confusing OPS with OBP!
They know this.
They're not acting like it!
On Base Percentage has ZERO to do with HRs! If he hit 200 Singles, Walked 100+ times and say was HBP 20+ times in 600 ABs tell me what his On Base Percentage would be people?! It's the amount of times he gets on base not the total bases!
I...can't...handle...the...stupid....
Guys with no power don't get walked enough to have a .400 OBP. It simply doesn't happen.
Please, go back to the ESPN boards or wherever you came from. You are so stupid you make guys like Clv and Gov and zb look like Einstein, DaVinci, and Hawking.
Dude was also worth 1.8 dWAR in 2014 playing mostly CF. He was pretty average in small samples in 2013 and 2012. If any year appears to be the abberation, it's 2015.
He has been a very consistent 120 OPS+ hitter, and that certainly isn't going away.
Eaton is easily a 4+ WAR player, and possibly 5+ WAR if his defense holds up.
Fangraps has last year as the outlier.
It's just hard to make sense of his defensive metrics so far. He's been anything from a 3-6 WAR player, and it's hard to know which extreme he'll be closer to going forward.
He's definitely a good player, but Giolito and Lopez? That's insane.
I...can't...handle...the...stupid....
Guys with no power don't get walked enough to have a .400 OBP. It simply doesn't happen.
Please, go back to the ESPN boards or wherever you came from. You are so stupid you make guys like Clv and Gov and zb look like Einstein, DaVinci, and Hawking.
It does happen, but it is definitely fairly rare. I would probably project Albies' ceiling to be somewhere around a .375 OBP but you never know.
Fangraps has last year as the outlier.
It's just hard to make sense of his defensive metrics so far. He's been anything from a 3-6 WAR player, and it's hard to know which extreme he'll be closer to going forward.
He's definitely a good player, but Giolito and Lopez? That's insane.
Even if he is only a 3 WAR player, he is being paid $38M over his 5 years of control. That is a bare minimum surplus of $82M. If he is a 4 WAR player that's $122M in surplus. If he is better than that his surplus goes even higher.
Giolito is probably worth $70M, and his star is fading. Lopez is likely worth $30M. No idea what Dunning is worth.
It all seems to add up to me.
It does happen, but it is definitely fairly rare. I would probably project Albies' ceiling to be somewhere around a .375 OBP but you never know.
Guys with single digit HR power typically peak around a .360-.370 OBP. I don't think that qualifies as "near .400".
And that guy Jay is still, by far, the dumbest poster here.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
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http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...8FlOsOIlcITboyHmQ&sig2=wvvVHg_9IqnMjXvtqyWz6A
Again you guys are confusing OPS with OBP!
To try to explain it an extreme way- if a guy has no power, pitchers will throw it down the middle instead of nibbling, so a guy will basically never get walked. For Albies to get a .400 OBP, then, he would have to have a .360 average, maybe even higher, because he'll get walks at the same rate as Andrelton Simmons due to their lack of power.
I'm exaggerating, but does that make sense? (Obviously Andrelton walks less because of extreme contact as well as lack of power, but I''m exaggerating to make a point)
Even if he is only a 3 WAR player, he is being paid $38M over his 5 years of control. That is a bare minimum surplus of $82M. If he is a 4 WAR player that's $122M in surplus. If he is better than that his surplus goes even higher.
Giolito is probably worth $70M, and his star is fading. Lopez is likely worth $30M. No idea what Dunning is worth.
It all seems to add up to me.
I get the numbers, but I don't see them as the definitive values you do. If either Giolito or Lopez hits, they will provide way more value than Eaton.
And even in light of payroll limitations, I value talent over monetary savings, especially for a team like the Nats. Eaton is a good to very good player, but I believe Giolito/Lopez is a significant overpay.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Fangraps has last year as the outlier.
It's just hard to make sense of his defensive metrics so far. He's been anything from a 3-6 WAR player, and it's hard to know which extreme he'll be closer to going forward.
He's definitely a good player, but Giolito and Lopez? That's insane.
I remember Eaton primarily as the failed Diamondbacks prospect who went on to be pretty decent in Chicago. I would not have guessed that he would command such a haul, but I suppose .280/.360 15hr is worth more than it used to be even considering the position. But I am not a big AL guy and certainly not a ChiSox watcher.
The thing that is curious to me is that he went from being slap hitter to a reduced average and 15 HRs somewhat abruptly in 2015. Then put up pretty much the exact same season in 2016. Sort of an interesting progression.
To me, this trade suggests Braves should have been looking at what they cold get for Inciarte.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...8FlOsOIlcITboyHmQ&sig2=wvvVHg_9IqnMjXvtqyWz6A
Again you guys are confusing OPS with OBP!
Friend, please quit attempting to explain what OBP is to me. I am well aware that you don't get bonus points for getting XBHs in the calculation. What you're continuing to miss is the correlation between power hitters and high OBPs. Pitchers aren't afraid of players with marginal power, which suppresses walk rates. I'm not saying it's impossible for a hitter with Albies' profile to get to a .400ish OBP, but the deck is stacked against him.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
I remember Eaton primarily as the failed Diamondbacks prospect who went on to be pretty decent in Chicago. I would not have guessed that he would command such a haul, but I suppose .280/.360 15hr is worth more than it used to be even considering the position. But I am not a big AL guy and certainly not a ChiSox watcher.
The thing that is curious to me is that he went from being slap hitter to a reduced average and 15 HRs somewhat abruptly in 2015. Then put up pretty much the exact same season in 2016. Sort of an interesting progression.
To me, this trade suggests Braves should have been looking at what they cold get for Inciarte.
Yeah...I think I would trade 3 years of Inciarte for that Natinals package. (I know he's got more than 3 years left)
Yeah...I think I would trade 3 years of Inciarte for that Natinals package. (I know he's got more than 3 years left)
Of course, but no one is giving us that package for Inciarte. Eaton is better.
The depth in our system is not made up of utility guys and #6 starters. We don't have 10 B prospects, we have 2-3 A prospects and about 15 B prospects, several of whom project to be potential A prospects down the road.
I wasnt talking about the Braves