Wisler

striker42

striker42

Well-known member
Wisler's losing me. I know he's a rookie and we've seen great pitchers struggle at rookies but it's more than just his struggles adjusting to the majors.

I've never been a huge fan of his and didn't understand why he was ranked as one of the Padre's top prospects when we traded for him. His stuff is decent but hardly overpowering. A lot of people projected him as having the ceiling of a number 3 starter in the majors and I just have a hard time calling a guy with a number 3 starter ceiling a top prospect.

One thing that I think is important (and worrying) to consider with Wisler is the fact that he hasn't really had much success since the first part of 2014 at AA. He pitched 30 very good innings at AA last year before being promoted to AAA where he struggled mightily. His ERA skyrocketed, his K rate plummeted, his HR rate spiked, and he started to get hit a lot harder. Fastforward to this year. His ERA at AAA was better but hardly inspiring. His K Rate continued to decline and he was still giving up better than a hit an inning. The K rate's decline is the most concerning to me. It's declined in the majors to a level where it's almost impossible to have success at.

I'm worried the Padres pulled one over on us. I'm beginning to think they knew Wisler and knew he was getting outs at lower levels because he was more polished than the competition, not because of an abundance of talent. Once he got to AAA and was facing a lot more veteran players every bit as polished as him, he started to struggle.

Its been over a season and a half since Wisler has shown much of anything. The failure to adjust to AAA and succeed there coupled with not being impressed with what I've seen from him in Atlanta (not just results) has me really doubting him. At this point I think we'll be lucky if he becomes a number 3 starter. I think there's a real chance he ends up back in AAA next year struggling to get guys out there.
 
He's a fly ball pitcher who has been walking too many hitters. It is a deadly combination. Both he and Williams Perez have experienced a big jump in their walk rates in moving from AAA to the majors. It is a bit worrisome. But it could also just be a matter of a young pitcher not trusting his stuff.
 
The scary part of Wisler is that he's not missing bats. It's not like he's missing bats and having bad luck or he just can't find the zone. Hitters are teeing off on him like it's coach pitch batting practice. Nothing is hit softly off of him.
 
Wisler
ManBan
Folty

The new Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
 
I said it was alarming as soon as I saw him pitch up here. He doesn't fool anyone and pitches to contact and it's solid hits he gives up.
 
NinersSBChamps said:
I said it was alarming as soon as I saw him pitch up here. He doesn't fool anyone and pitches to contact and it's solid hits he gives up.
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Yeah, it's a situation where your eyes are backing up the results. Sometimes a guy can have some ugly results but still show a lot of positives. I think Folty is this way. Folty is giving up a lot of runs and and a lot of hits but there are a lot of positives there. You watch him and see he has the stuff to dominate. In fact, he'll have stretches in a game where he's unhittable before losing it and giving up a couple hits followed by a HR. With him a lot of it is consistency with his secondary stuff which you hope will come. But there's a lot of reason for optimism. He's missing a bunch of bats (8 Ks per 9) and not walking the world. 3 BB per 9 is higher than ideal but it's not worrying at this stage.

Wisler doesn't have this. Wisler's results are ugly and he's pitching just as ugly. There's really no silver lining. He's getting hit hard and from what he's throwing he should be getting hit hard. The peripheral stats are bad, the core stats are bad, and what you're seeing is bad.

The Braves really aren't doing Wisler any favors running him out there every 5th day. He obviously has work to do that doesn't need to be done against major league hitters.
 
He has an above average fastball and an above average slider, so it's not like there's not anything there. But he needs to develop his change and maybe work on a two seamer or a cutter.

Fangraphs had his top comp as Chris Tillman. Tillman had similar struggles at the beginning of his career.

The good news is that the fastball and slider are good pitches.
 
weso1 said:
He has an above average fastball and an above average slider, so it's not like there's not anything there. But he needs to develop his change and maybe work on a two seamer or a cutter.

Fangraphs had his top comp as Chris Tillman. Tillman had similar struggles at the beginning of his career.

The good news is that the fastball and slider are good pitches.
Click to expand...

^^
 
He's not an ace and never will be, but he could definitely still be a solid pitcher. He's taking some lumps right now, though.
 
Tillman is better than nothing but he's not exactly an inspiring comparison. FIP has consistently been between 4.00 and 4.50. Number 4 starter type.

I get the feeling Wisler will be tradebait at some point.
 
I think Glavine's first couple of seasons could be a reasonable comp. I'm not suggesting Wisler will have a Glavinesque career, but like Glavine, Wisler doesn't appear to have overpowering stuff. It's just taking Wisler some time to trust the stuff that he has. Glavine's strength was not giving into hitters. Wisler's problem right now seems to be that he is giving into hitters. It really boils down to making pitches and Wisler is not making them right now.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think Glavine's first couple of seasons could be a reasonable comp. I'm not suggesting Wisler will have a Glavinesque career, but like Glavine, Wisler doesn't appear to have overpowering stuff. It's just taking Wisler some time to trust the stuff that he has. Glavine's strength was not giving into hitters. Wisler's problem right now seems to be that he is giving into hitters. It really boils down to making pitches and Wisler is not making them right now.
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Glavine had that competitive streak in him. Wisler seems to get rattled and let the game get out of control. It could be that he's just young and over his head, or it could be that he doesn't have it. We'll see.
 
What nobody seems to be willing to say is that Glavine, Smoltz, etc. had Leo Mazzone and his training, his between-start and between-season regimines that are now considered archaic or worse. McDowell is as good as anyone doing the job today, but no one does the job today as well as Leo did then. Period.
 
In truth, the way our young guys are getting their heads kicked in is pretty disturbing. We all remember how badly Maddux and Glavine struggled, but:

A. They weren't this bad, and

B. Maddux and Glavine were obviously rare pieces.

I mean, you start looking at some of the numbers...Wisler has a 64 ERA+ with a 5.40 FIP. Foltynewicz has a 67 ERA+ with a 5.06 FIP. Perez has a 68 ERA+ with a 5.06 FIP. Banuelos has been more respectable, and the sample size with him is too small (and too affected by injuries) to make any judgments there.

These aren't just standard, ho-hum young pitcher struggles- guy pitches well, gets shelled the next, pitches well the next, has control problems the next two starts, etc. This is just slaughter. I'm not saying we should dump these kids, and I'd certainly rather see us run them out there then go with Cahill 2.0. But generally speaking, getting beaten up this badly, even as a rookie, augurs poorly. It would be one thing if these were minor league studs pitching below expectations at the big league level, but Wisler hasn't actually been a good minor league pitcher since 2013, while Foltynewicz was awful in 2014 and had kind of mixed results at Gwinnett this year (good ERA, great strikeout rate, too many walks, twoo many homers).

Foltynewicz, at least, always has the bullpen to fall back on. I don't think Wisler and Perez have that luxury.
 
They're all pieces of garbage with the exception of ManBan and Folty should develop into a good reliever. I said months ago we should have never even brought Wisler up and overexpose him, let him sit in AAA and hopefully rebound and pitch better down there and use his "top" prospect status at that time to use as trade bait. Too late for that, but I got hammered for saying that. He's nothing more than a 4 or 5 starter in his prime unless something changes significantly.
 
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