Would you do this?

B

bravesfanforlife88

Well-known member
If at the end of the season, our team is so bad, we have guaranteed ourselves a top 5 pick again, would you make moves to accelerate this rebuild, or would you try to hit the reset button?

My thinking is that we have a lot of prospects in the lower system. Maitan, Acuna, Newcomb, Allard, Gohara, Jackson, Soroka, etc. I think the quickest way to become competitive sooner rather than later would be to trade Freeman. Granted, I am NOT saying I WANT to trade him, but if we got an offer of guys ready to step up and play now, would that not make more sense for us?
 
Let the rebuild happen naturally. Dont sign any big name free agents to long term lucrative contracts. Sign our young players to long term contracts ASAP. Even if they bust we are out about 30 million over 6 years or something like that. Thats practically bench player money these days.
 
I'd trade everyone but Freeman and the kids. Freeman is young enough that I don't think patience will hurt us with him.
 
I would evaluate trades on a "time neutral" basis. In other words I don't think we should discount wins in a particular season at the expense of another. There are circumstances where this makes sense (mid-season) or at the end of a season when you have very little chance of competing the next.

Now I suspect what I just said will raise some eyebrows. Some people may think we have very little chance next year. I think this overlooks the two most significant developments this season so far in terms of implications for next year. One is Freddie's emergence as an elite player. When you have someone like that you can compete even with a whole lot of average at other positions.

Second, the news on our pitching in the minors has been very good. Most of them have put up really outstanding strikeout and walk rates. And more and more of them are doing it in AA and AAA.

Given those two developments, I'm not inclined to write off 2018. But I'm not inclined to do anything that is specifically focused on "accelerating" the rebuild. I would assess returns on trades on a "time neutral" basis.
 
nsacpi said:
I would evaluate trades on a "time neutral" basis. In other words I don't think we should discount wins in a particular season at the expense of another. There are circumstances where this makes sense (mid-season) or at the end of a season when you have very little chance of competing the next.

Now I suspect what I just said will raise some eyebrows. Some people may think we have very little chance next year. I think this overlooks the two most significant developments this season so far in terms of implications for next year. One is Freddie's emergence as an elite player. When you have someone like that you can compete even with a whole lot of average at other positions.

Second, the news on our pitching in the minors has been very good. Most of them have put up really outstanding strikeout and walk rates. And more and more of them are doing it in AA and AAA.

Given those two developments, I'm not inclined to write off 2018. But I'm not inclined to do anything that is specifically focused on "accelerating" the rebuild. I would assess returns on trades on a "time neutral" basis.
Click to expand...

Great post and I totally agree!
 
Freeman has his contract, and he's the core of any team. I take the money from the dumping of Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Phillips, etc. and lock up Swanson, give Flowers an extension if they can't snare Lecroy, re-sign Johnson if he's reasonable and bank the rest, letting the young guns know that if they prove themselves, a long term deal would be in the offing for them as well.

I trade Teheran, Cabrera, Wisler, Blair for fair market value (if the latter two have any)
 
rico43 said:
Freeman has his contract, and he's the core of any team. I take the money from the dumping of Colon, Dickey, Garcia, Phillips, etc. and lock up Swanson, give Flowers an extension if they can't snare Lecroy, re-sign Johnson if he's reasonable and bank the rest, letting the young guns know that if they prove themselves, a long term deal would be in the offing for them as well.

I trade Teheran, Cabrera, Wisler, Blair for fair market value (if the latter two have any)
Click to expand...

The devil is in the details on some of these ideas. Locking up Swanson for one. What is the expected future production that should be used to evaluate his compensation. I suspect this might be a hard one for him and the front office to reach agreement on. Trading Teheran for fair market value for another. Is fair valuation 3 expected wins per year or 1 win per year? Details, details. Sometimes they are important.
 
Try to sign Swanson way under market after the year he is having. A Flowers extension could be pretty solid gamble. He's posted (so far) back to back years in new career bests in K% and BB%.
 
thewupk said:
Try to sign Swanson way under market after the year he is having.
Click to expand...

What is market? At the start of the season this was discussed some around here. I said it would be risky to project him as anything more than a 2 win per year player. Others disagreed. I see no reason to change my view. Even 2 wins seems a bit high to me (and seemed high even before the season). Will Swanson and his agent agree to a contract that values him as a 1 win player. If so I'm all for it.
 
Now is the perfect time to discuss an extension with Swanson, or at least a buy-out of his arbitration years. For two reasons: you show confidence and belief in him while he's struggling, and you do so at the low point in his value.

He may not be willing to take any discount, at which time you put talks on hold. But you at least start the discussion.
 
nsacpi said:
What is market? At the start of the season this was discussed some around here. I said it would be risky to project him as anything more than a 2 win per year player. Others disagreed. I see no reason to change my view. Even 2 wins is seems a bit high to me (and seemed high even before the season). Will Swanson and his agent agree to a contract that values him as a 1 win player. If so I'm all for it.
Click to expand...

The worst thing you can get is an answer you don't like! Offer 7/51 and see what happens.

18: 500K
19: 500K:
20: 3 million
21: 6.5 million
22: 9.5 million
23. 13.5 million
24. 15 million
25. 15 million option (2.5 million buyout)
 
Well, I have advocated looking for the right trade for Freeman in the past because I never bought in to the 2017-18 time frame to be competitive. But now, I don't think the Braves can trade Freeman because of his performance (he's essentially now the Braves version of Mike Trout) and because of what would have to be coming back to make it a viable trade. Right now, I think you would need two ML ready young players who at least appear to have star potential and two (or four if you can't get 2 ML guys) really good prospects to even consider moving him AND these players would have to be in areas of need. It would have to be something like: 3B Bregman, OF Kyle Tucker, OF Derek Fisher, RHP Forrest Whitley & OF Gilberto Celestino. That would be a ton that the Astros would have to give up BUT, if you are thinking 2019-2020 are the real likely dates where enough of the youngsters will coalesce to make being competitive possible then it might make some sense for the Braves.

In that scenario you pair Bregman with Swanson and Albies to make up 3/4 of your future infield and you pair Tucker and Fisher with Acuna to make up your future OF, you add a high end starting arm to go into the current pile and add a well thought of international bat to mix with Pache, Cruz, Maitan in the far future to help patch holes and keep the waves of talent rolling.

The one thing it would do on the field short and long term would be to create a hole at 1B that would have to be filled. However, trading Freeman also moves his money which opens the possibility of signing someone else to come in and play that position. Or, you could aim to develop your 1B from the inside with options like Riley, Jackson and the very long shot of Davidson. It's unlikely ANY that you get will be able to duplicate the production of Freeman today. However, Freeman's production today isn't really doing much for the record of today and production today is no guarantee of production tomorrow.

Again, outside of a YUGE haul, I don't think the Braves can even consider it. And even given that, the politics of the new stadium and the "social contract" with the fans likely doesn't allow it.
 
thewupk said:
The worst thing you can get is an answer you don't like! Offer 7/51 and see what happens.

18: 500K
19: 500K:
20: 3 million
21: 6.5 million
22: 9.5 million
23. 13.5 million
24. 15 million
25. 15 million option (2.5 million buyout)
Click to expand...

that should be our best offer not the opening offer
 
nsacpi said:
I vaguely remember you telling me 2018 was the year the pie would be ready to come out of the oven.
Click to expand...

I've said in the past that I thought 2018 was when the turn would begin to happen and that, with luck, the Braves could potentially compete for a WC. But, I'm not very bullish on that now because the young pitching has been relatively slow to develop. It looks like Wisler and Blair are both complete busts at this point and Folty is likely never to see stardom or anywhere near it. The rushing of Swanson has also dampened my enthusiasm because right now one of the better outcomes for him would be that he struggles through the year but eventually rights the ship after a lost year at the ML level. The downside for him would be that he has been ruined and will never be the player that we all hoped that he would be. I can't remember a player who was obviously rushed and struggled mightily at the ML level and then went on to multiple All-Star seasons. There probably are some. I just don't recall any.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I've said in the past that I thought 2018 was when the turn would begin to happen and that, with luck, the Braves could potentially compete for a WC. But, I'm not very bullish on that now because the young pitching has been relatively slow to develop. It looks like Wisler and Blair are both complete busts at this point and Folty is likely never to see stardom or anywhere near it. The rushing of Swanson has also dampened my enthusiasm because right now one of the better outcomes for him would be that he struggles through the year but eventually rights the ship after a lost year at the ML level. The downside for him would be that he has been ruined and will never be the player that we all hoped that he would be. I can't remember a player who was obviously rushed and struggled mightily at the ML level and then went on to multiple All-Star seasons. There probably are some. I just don't recall any.
Click to expand...

Trout OPS'd under .700 in 40 games as a 19-year-old.
 
smootness said:
Trout OPS'd under .700 in 40 games as a 19-year-old.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the example. However, Swanson would need to raise his OPS by .249 points just to reach .700 in the next 11 games or .221 just to reach Trout's .672.

I think a lot of players fail to see .700 when they first come up but few end up completely lost at .451 and come back to a star career IMO.

I hope to be very wrong. But, I can't see any likelihood that the Braves rushing Swanson has done anything but seriously jeopardize his long term career. And, for no good reason.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top