Wren On XM About The Extensions Thus Far...

clvclv

<B>"What is a clvclv"</B>
Teheran was the easiest from the team's standpoint - "we've seen this kid since Day One...we know what we've got...VERY comfortable with the deal."

Freeman and Kimbrel deals were entirely about locking them up during their prime years - feel that they're substantially team-friendly "especially when looking at our flow chart and projecting where salaries will be five years from now."

Big part of thinking behind Kimbrel deal was also his long term health record - NEVER been on the DL at any level.

Completely expects Freeman's power to continue to grow - says Freddie puts on as good a show as Gattis in BP everywhere they go, consistently in the upper tanks whenever he wants to go there.

Long term Heyward extension will continue to be talked about, but the two year deal was the only one on the table this winter - both he and Casey Close feel that Jason will turn into the player everyone hopes, but the organization needs to see at least one healthy year WITHOUT the freak injuries. Mainly feel they need to see consistency develop, but that can only come with health - can't give him Freeman deal until he gets the chance to show he can give us the same thing.

Simmons talks still ongoing.

(Bowden thinks we won BOTH the Freeman and Kimbrel deals, and while he would've preferred to wait another year on Julio, agrees that we won that one financially. Gives Wren an unquestioned "A" for the offseason.)

Other various comments...

Be careful about writing the B. J. deal off as a bad one - spent the entire offseason working out with Derek Jeter, and that's likely to provide major benefit to his mental approach.

Made it very clear that they're also not writing Uggla off. Had a good winter, and they're still thrilled with his overall approach - always working hard, never takes a play off, huge part of clubhouse chemistry whether he's going good or not. Didn't say he CAN'T lose the job, but made it pretty clear he has to lose it - doesn't sound like La Stella can "win" it unless Dan completely stumbles again. (Personally think that's the right approach as well, but only time will tell.)
 
Heyward is difficult because of the up and down seasons due to injury. A steady baseline would have made it easier for the two parties to agree on a contract.

The downside of the Teheran and Kimbrel deals is that it pretty much eliminates any chance of keeping both Heyward and Justin Upton beyond 2015. The odds were below 50% even before the Teheran and Kimbrel deals but now they are below 10%.

Each of the Teheran, Kimbrel and Freeman deals represented a discount of about half a win per season relative to what I'd expect the players to produce over the course of the contracts. Not bad, but not great from the clubs perspective. Collectively, these deals do reduce the team's flexibility going forward. What do they imply about payroll? Counting the bonuses as part of the 2014 payroll and assuming Floyd makes half of his incentives, we are now just over 100M for 2014. I assume Wren is keeping some of his powder dry for mid-season moves, so my guess is 2014 payroll will be in the 105-110M range. Reading the tea leaves for subsequent years, it looks like we'll be in the 110-115 range in 2015 and need to go to the 120-125M range in 2017-18 if we are serious about keeping Heyward.

One more thought about Heyward and Simmons. The arbitration process and free agency market tend to undervalue players for whom defense is a big part of their value. As much as I'd like to lock those two up, that provides some justification for letting the process play itself out with those two. In contrast the arbitration process overvalues closers, which provides some justification for bypassing it in Kimbrel's case.
 
I applaud Wren's cautious approach with Jason. Of all the core guys currently here, he is the most risky. The flip side he has immense talent and could break through. I don't have as much faith in Jason becoming a star as others here, but it's still a possibility.
 
I applaud Wren's cautious approach with Jason. Of all the core guys currently here, he is the most risky. The flip side he has immense talent and could break through. I don't have as much faith in Jason becoming a star as others here, but it's still a possibility.

I personally think Heyward has the potential to be more valuable to this team than Freeman, and would've been my #1 extension. Not complaining too much though.

It is certainly interesting to observe how Wren has chosen to deal with Jason. He said during the Freeman press conference that the team didn't offer Jason a long-term extension because they didn't want to put 'pressure' on him in 2014. Makes you wonder what the team's perception of his makeup is.
 
I personally think Heyward has the potential to be more valuable to this team than Freeman, and would've been my #1 extension. Not complaining too much though.

It is certainly interesting to observe how Wren has chosen to deal with Jason. He said during the Freeman press conference that the team didn't offer Jason a long-term extension because they didn't want to put 'pressure' on him in 2014. Makes you wonder what the team's perception of his makeup is.

I would think it's more pressure to try and have a great season in order to get an extension rather than already having one in place.
 
Heyward is difficult because of the up and down seasons due to injury. A steady baseline would have made it easier for the two parties to agree on a contract.

The downside of the Teheran and Kimbrel deals is that it pretty much eliminates any chance of keeping both Heyward and Justin Upton beyond 2015. The odds were below 50% even before the Teheran and Kimbrel deals but now they are below 10%.

Each of the Teheran, Kimbrel and Freeman deals represented a discount of about half a win per season relative to what I'd expect the players to produce over the course of the contracts. Not bad, but not great from the clubs perspective. Collectively, these deals do reduce the team's flexibility going forward. What do they imply about payroll? Counting the bonuses as part of the 2014 payroll and assuming Floyd makes half of his incentives, we are now just over 100M for 2014. I assume Wren is keeping some of his powder dry for mid-season moves, so my guess is 2014 payroll will be in the 105-110M range. Reading the tea leaves for subsequent years, it looks like we'll be in the 110-115 range in 2015 and need to go to the 120-125M range in 2017-18 if we are serious about keeping Heyward.

One more thought about Heyward and Simmons. The arbitration process and free agency market tend to undervalue players for whom defense is a big part of their value. As much as I'd like to lock those two up, that provides some justification for letting the process play itself out with those two. In contrast the arbitration process overvalues closers, which provides some justification for bypassing it in Kimbrel's case.

These deals are going to look great in a few years as baseball continues to go through a period of constant inflation.
 
These deals are going to look great in a few years as baseball continues to go through a period of constant inflation.

For the most part deals with younger players work better than deals with the guys in their 30s. But still there is some downside risk. The Cubs for example must keeping their fingers crossed that Starlin Castro will bounce back from his 2013 season. The Orioles can't be too happy with the results from the Nick Markakis contract. And we dodged a bullet when Francoeur turned down a contract similar to the one McCann signed.
 
For the most part deals with younger players work better than deals with the guys in their 30s. But still there is some downside risk. The Cubs for example must keeping their fingers crossed that Starlin Castro will bounce back from his 2013 season. The Orioles can't be too happy with the results from the Nick Markakis contract. And we dodged a bullet when Francoeur turned down a contract similar to the one McCann signed.

Which is why we're trying to diversify the risk over a large number of extensions.
 
For the most part deals with younger players work better than deals with the guys in their 30s. But still there is some downside risk. The Cubs for example must keeping their fingers crossed that Starlin Castro will bounce back from his 2013 season. The Orioles can't be too happy with the results from the Nick Markakis contract. And we dodged a bullet when Francoeur turned down a contract similar to the one McCann signed.

It is crazy how Francoeur ended up flopping and souring on everyone.
Freeman has proven much more though, and has been getting progressively better every year.
Teheran of course has the injury risk that all young guys do.
 
Back
Top