WS Win Percentages at BP and FG

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
BP
1. Astros 18.8
2. Braves 14.3
3. Cubs 11.3
4. Red Sox 11.1
5. Dodgers 10.1
6. Indians 9.2
7. Brewers 6.4
8. Yankees 5.8
9. Rockies 4.1
10. A's 4.0

FG
1. Astros 23.2
2. Red Sox 16.2
3. Indians 13.8
4. Dodgers 12.6
5. Yankees 10.3
6. Cubs 9.9
7. Braves 3.5
8. Brewers 3.3
9. Rockies 3.0
10. A's 2.2

Some interesting differences. Aside from the individual teams, FG is giving the AL teams a much higher chance as a group--63.5% collectively to the Astros, Red Sox, Indians and Yankees. BP gives those 4 teams a 44.9% chance of winning the WS.
 
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nsacpi said:
BP
1. Astros 18.8
2. Braves 14.3
3. Cubs 11.3
4. Red Sox 11.1
5. Dodgers 10.1
6. Indians 9.2
7. Brewers 6.4
8. Yankees 5.8
9. Rockies 4.1
10. A's 4.0

FG
1. Astros 23.2
2. Red Sox 16.2
3. Indians 13.8
4. Dodgers 12.6
5. Yankees 10.3
6. Cubs 9.9
7. Braves 3.5
8. Brewers 3.3
9. Rockies 3.0
10. A's 2.2

Some interesting differences. Aside from the individual teams, FG is giving the AL teams a much higher chance as a group--63.5% collectively to the Astros, Red Sox, Indians and Yankees. BP gives those 4 teams a 44.9% chance of winning the WS.
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Holy crap, when I looked at the BP list I initially thought they left us off the top 10 because I was looking in the 6-10 range. But they seriously have us with the 2nd best WS odds? That is nuts.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Obviously the A’s have to go through the Yankee$. But I think I they would have a better chance. They have a good young team.
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Alternatively the Yankees have to go through the A's. I don't see either team as being much of a favorite in a coin flip game. I think we are agreeing. The FG Yankees numbers are way too high.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Holy crap, when I looked at the BP list I initially thought they left us off the top 10 because I was looking in the 6-10 range. But they seriously have us with the 2nd best WS odds? That is nuts.
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BP has loved us more than any of the projection systems all year. And they have been the most right!

My view is closer to the average of the two systems for most teams, including the Bravos.
 
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4 of the top 5 teams in Fangraphs are in the AL. Only one of those will have a chance to win the WS. The NL path is pretty easy with a ton of good but not any great team. Whichever teams gets hot will likely roll through.
 
Hulavol said:
This is nuts...
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There is a certain logic to the BP projections for us. Take our run differential of 103 (3 in NL behind the Dodgers at 133 and Cubs at 107). Take the fact that we have easily the biggest division lead in the NL. Take the fact the NL has won the interleague series this year.

Our team also is currently healthy (knock on wood). We have a pen that allows us to aggressively seek out platoon matchups. And we have some choices for who to to start against different opponents depending on whether they are weaker or stronger against lefty or righty pitching.
 
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thewupk said:
4 of the top 5 teams in Fangraphs are in the AL. Only one of those will have a chance to win the WS. The NL path is pretty easy with a ton of good but not any great team. Whichever teams gets hot will likely roll through.
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I think FG likes the American League a little too much. Sure there are some very good teams there. Maybe a couple great teams. But their records and run differentials are padded by some awful teams. The fact that the NL won the interleague play says something.
 
nsacpi said:
I think FG likes the American League a little too much. Sure there are some very good teams there. Maybe a couple great teams. But their records and run differentials are padded by some awful teams. The fact that the NL won the interleague play says something.
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AL is very top heavy. The Red Sox did roll through the Braves for example. On average the NL is likely a better league but the Red Sox/Yankees/Astros trio is way better than anything the NL can offer imo.
 
thewupk said:
AL is very top heavy. The Red Sox did roll through the Braves for example. On average the NL is likely a better league but the Red Sox/Yankees/Astros trio is way better than anything the NL can offer imo.
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Indians are very good too. I think the question is how big a favorite the AL teams would be in a 7 game series against the NL team. FG seems to be thinking they would have collectively (when you add the A's) about a 66% chance of winning. I'm not so sure its that high. I think more in the 55-60% range.
 
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nsacpi said:
There is a certain logic to the BP projections for us. Take our run differential of 103 (3 in NL behind the Dodgers at 133 and Cubs at 107). Take the fact that we have easily the biggest division lead in the NL. Take the fact the NL has won the interleague series this year.

Our team also is currently healthy (knock on wood). We have a pen that allows us to aggressively seek out platoon matchups. And we have some choices for who to to start against different opponents depending on whether they are weaker or stronger against lefty or righty pitching.
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All very good points... Im just surprised they have us with a better chance than the Sox. But if we get there, and I am starting to think we can... then anything can happen.
 
nsacpi said:
There is a certain logic to the BP projections for us. Take our run differential of 103 (3 in NL behind the Dodgers at 133 and Cubs at 107). Take the fact that we have easily the biggest division lead in the NL. Take the fact the NL has won the interleague series this year.

Our team also is currently healthy (knock on wood). We have a pen that allows us to aggressively seek out platoon matchups. And we have some choices for who to to start against different opponents depending on whether they are weaker or stronger against lefty or righty pitching.
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The kicker, and the reason BP likes us is this: You can't win the WS unless you get to the WS, and BP sees the Braves' path to get to the WS as easier than some teams, especially those who are still in a fight for the division. Having to play the WC game greatly decreases the otherwise odds of getting to the WS roughly by 50 %. The Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers and Rockies are still in danger of having to play that coin-flip game, and the Astros aren't out of the woods there, either.

As a Georgia football fan, I like seeing the odds the Dawgs get to win the NC. One reason the odds are so good right now, is that the oddsmakers see Georgia's chances of winning their conference division as much better than other teams who are viewed as equally good as, if not better than, the Dawgs (Auburn, Ohio State, etc., even Alabama).

I guess the rough analogy is the Braves have to win the SEC East to get to the WS and the AL team has to win the SEC West. Put differently, the underdog WS team (NL) has an infinitely better chance of winning the WS than the AL runner-up.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Holy crap, when I looked at the BP list I initially thought they left us off the top 10 because I was looking in the 6-10 range. But they seriously have us with the 2nd best WS odds? That is nuts.
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That got me excited. And in a no running out of porn necessary type of way.
 
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