ZiPS FIP Projections for our Starting Pitchers

[nsacpi]

Try saying ZiPS FIP Projections three times fast.

Anyhow, the numbers of course are purely based on statistics, including estimates based on minor league performances for that particular level. It gives some idea of how some of our upper level prospects might do. In some cases, the model might not be taking into account late season improvements or strong performances in winter ball. I'm thinking mainly of Lucas Sims here. Anyhow here are the projections:

Miller 3.48

Teheran 3.65

Norris 4.14

Banuelos 4.18

Winkler 4.33

Perez 4.36

Weber 4.37

Wisler 4.39

Gant 4.48

Foltynevich 4.50

Newcomb 4.82

Sims 5.09

Jenkins 5.17

Bird 5.67

Replacement level FIP for starting pitchers appears to be around 4.60.

 

[thewupk]

Looks like we will have several options to fill out the back end of the rotation.

 

[nsacpi]

Looks like we will have several options to fill out the back end of the rotation.

You usually need 8 or 9 starting pitchers over the course of a season. I like the depth. The main thing to hope for is that one of the guys slated for AAA takes a big step forward and outperforms his FIP projections by half a percentage point or more. The guys who I think have the best shot of establishing themselves as major league starters at some point next year are Perez, Gant and Foltynevich. Newcomb and Sims have some upside but probably need at least another full season in the minors.

 

[striker42]

I find it kind of sad that Wisler and Gant are projected to be similar contributors. Wisler's star has faded a lot for me.

 

[weso1]

zips means zips for most of our guys since they have such little experience.

 

[nsacpi]

zips means zips for most of our guys since they have such little experience.

Actually minor league data provide some basis for these projections. They aren't pulled out of thin air.

 

[nsacpi]

I find it kind of sad that Wisler and Gant are projected to be similar contributors. Wisler's star has faded a lot for me.

I thought Wisler's last four or five starts were quite encouraging. He is one of the guys who I think ZiPS is underrating. Gant pitched really well for us in AA. We've acquired a lot of second tier pitching prospects. All it takes is to hit on one for those trades to have been worth it. I think Gant might be the one.

 

[zbhargrove]

I find it kind of sad that Wisler and Gant are projected to be similar contributors. Wisler's star has faded a lot for me.

It hasn't for me... he really turned it on and pitched very solid at the end of the year. Was promising that he made some adjustments and they worked.

 

[nsacpi]

Williams Perez also showed signs of making some good adjustments in his last few starts.

 

[zbhargrove]

Williams Perez also showed signs of making some good adjustments in his last few starts.

Huge adjustments

 

[nsacpi]

Huge adjustments

Massive really

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Massive really

he could really eat up a hitter..
I think his future is shaping up nicely to were he will become a well rounded pitcher.

 

[UNCBlue012]

I find it kind of sad that Wisler and Gant are projected to be similar contributors. Wisler's star has faded a lot for me.

complete opposite for me. Dude looked fantastic down the stretch.

 

[nsacpi]

he could really eat up a hitter..
I think his future is shaping up nicely to were he will become a well rounded pitcher.

Bowman had lunch with him and said there was reason to be impressed.

 

[smootness]

complete opposite for me. Dude looked fantastic down the stretch.

Agreed. I think the projections for him and Teheran will prove to be pessimistic.