Braves trade for Chris Sale - Grissom going to Red Sox (Extension through 26 at 18M)

thewupk said:
Red Sox already paid him his portion of 2024. Basically the Braves are taking the 500K they owed him in 2024 + the derred money they owed him and replacing that with a new contract.
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That doesn't make sense. Why would we pay him $16M more? $500k current + $10M in 2039 is nowhere near $16M. We've got him with $17M from Boston and $5.1M current value from us in '24.

Or as you say, the Boston money is already done. But that would be total comp of $33M this year, which isn't remotely possible.
 
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GovClintonTyree said:
JPX, How are you getting there? The Sox are paying us $17M this year. He's entitled to $17.5M this year, another $10M ($4.6M PV in '24 dollars) in 2039. So $17.5M + $4.6M = 22.1M in 2024. Why would he agree to $16M? Then a year at $22M, $2M more than his current '25 option now guaranteed, and the club option at $18M for '26.
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Boston was never paying Sale anything this season, post-trade. They paid Atlanta $17m to take on Sale’s obligations ($17.5m in 2024 plus $10m in 2039) and get Vaugh Grissom in the process.

Chris Sale subsequently decided he’d take a $1.5m pay-cut in 2024 to get $22m in 2025, instead of $10m in 2039. Given the depreciation angle, it’s estimated that decision nets him ~$17m in new money. He also now knows if he pitches well (or, really, is able to consistently pitch) then it’s very likely he’ll net an additional $18m in 2026.

The Braves’ angle is less clear. They may save money in 2024, depending on the exact CBT math. They definitely bought an additional year of control, at the cost of locking in 2025.
 
chop2chip said:
I really view this as a fancy way of picking up his club option a year early in return for eliminating the deferred money.
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Is the 2025 option really a club option? All I see is that it is a vesting option if he hits the qualifiers. Does Sale not have any say over that?
 
Carp said:
No. The Red Sox are already contributing 17 million this year. This extension doesn't affect that part. He's now making 17 million from Boston and 16 million from us in 2024, instead of only 17.5 in 2024 and 10 million 10 years from now.

What this extension does for us is give us 2 more years of control are what could/should be below market rates. What it does for Sale is that it gives him an extra 16 million up front instead of having to wait a decade for that final 10 million.
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You’re double counting Boston’s contribution. He’s getting $38m next two years with $17m covered by Boston, so the Braves are responsible for 2 years $21m
 
jpx7 said:
Boston was never paying Sale anything this season, post-trade. They paid Atlanta $17m to take on Sale’s obligations ($17.5m in 2024 plus $10m in 2039) and get Vaugh Grissom in the process.

Chris Sale subsequently decided he’d take a $1.5m pay-cut in 2024 to get $22m in 2025, instead of $10m in 2039. Given the depreciation angle, it’s estimated that decision nets him ~$17m in new money. He also now knows if he pitches well (or, really, is able to consistently pitch) then it’s very likely he’ll net an additional $18m in 2026.

The Braves’ angle is less clear. They may save money in 2024, depending on the exact CBT math. They definitely bought an additional year of control, at the cost of locking in 2025.
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OK, I guess. Thanks for that.

Apparently AA has a much higher opinion of Sale's likelihood of health than I do. He just looks like he's not substantial enough to tolerate two or three more years of one of the most violent things you can do to your body. I remember Sale saying something about transitioning to a new phase of pitching, instead of "throwing every single pitch as hard as I possibly can".

And I don't understand the allergy to deferred money. If you want to expense it this year, use the present value (less than half the $10M, per my back of the envelope calculations) and buy an annuity. Then you can do things like announce the guy's making $70M when he's really making $40M in today's dollars.
 
Carp said:
Is the 2025 option really a club option? All I see is that it is a vesting option if he hits the qualifiers. Does Sale not have any say over that?
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Correct. It becomes guaranteed if he finished top 10 Cy Young and healthy. The Braves basically said we’ll guarantee it if you agree to tear up the deferred money.
 
Carp said:
Is the 2025 option really a club option? All I see is that it is a vesting option if he hits the qualifiers. Does Sale not have any say over that?
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It was clarified that it was a Club Option that could vest into a guarantee with certain performance thresholds being met.

It’s moot now, however, as 2025 is guaranteed and 2026 is a straight Club Option.
 
Perhaps the new deal removes any incentives from Sale to try to hit certain targets to get the option to vest. So that he doesn't get pissed when we limit him to 15-20 starts in order to have him fresh for October.
 
Chris Sale will finally assume his rightful place as the Charlie Morton replacement once this board starts incorrectly assuming the Braves will decline his option.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
And I don't understand the allergy to deferred money. If you want to expense it this year, use the present value (less than half the $10M, per my back of the envelope calculations) and buy an annuity. Then you can do things like announce the guy's making $70M when he's really making $40M in today's dollars.
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This is just my read—I can’t recall anyone in the FO ever commenting directly on these matters; and, moreover, I can’t hazard much of a guess as to why this is the case—but it seems the club really prefers simple, straightforward accounting and contractual terms.

They’ve famously eschewed NTCs for a long time. They don’t pursue convoluted options (like the conditions of Nick Martinez’s Padres contract, for instance); in fact, they don’t even really seem to like player or mutual options—just team options that they’re very likely to pick up. They don’t negotiate opt-outs, that I can recall. They haven’t availed themselves of these vogue deferrals, either small or substantial (and they just went out of their way to negotiate themselves out of a deferred money situation). They don’t really seem to be big on signing bonuses, either.

It’s a definite lack of contractual ingenuity and flexibility, but the flipside (which helps when you’re signing your whole teams to extensions, I’m sure) is payroll stability and knowability. Who knows, maybe it has something to do with their corporate ownership, as well.
 
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Looks like the CBT implications are positive, if small, for the Braves (given that the $10m Sale was owed was deflated by its deferred nature):

There’s also the competitive balance tax to consider. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded to reflect what remains of the contract. That means that Sale was going to have a $27.5MM CBT hit prior to this deal, with the Sox absorbing $17MM of that. But that will now drop to $19MM, leaving just $2MM on Atlanta’s CBT ledger this year but $19MM next year. Going into today, the club’s CBT figure was at $276MM, per Roster Resource. That’s right against the third tax threshold of $277MM, which is a notable line to cross. Clubs that go over the third threshold have their top pick in the next draft pushed back by 10 slots, in addition to an increased tax rate. By lowering Sale’s CBT hit, the club will have a bit more breathing room to make more moves, either now or during the season.
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You’d think that little bit of extra breathing-room would be helpful in signing a RH-hitting back-up OF, but Harrison Bader just got $10m …
 
jpx7 said:
Looks like the CBT implications are positive, if small, for the Braves (given that the $10m Sale was owed was deflated by its deferred nature):



You’d think that little bit of extra breathing-room would be helpful in signing a RH-hitting back-up OF, but Harrison Bader just got $10m …
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Aha. There it is.

Yeah, it'll give them room to get their RHH OF. Unless the Mets give every 75 OPS+ 4th OF $10M. Then we're in trouble.
 
jpx7 said:
Looks like the CBT implications are positive, if small, for the Braves (given that the $10m Sale was owed was deflated by its deferred nature):



You’d think that little bit of extra breathing-room would be helpful in signing a RH-hitting back-up OF, but Harrison Bader just got $10m …
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Great read. Thanks for sharing.

This makes it clear that the Braves did this to open space to add a player now or for midseason flexibility.
 
jpx7 said:
Looks like the CBT implications are positive, if small, for the Braves (given that the $10m Sale was owed was deflated by its deferred nature):



You’d think that little bit of extra breathing-room would be helpful in signing a RH-hitting back-up OF, but Harrison Bader just got $10m …
Click to expand...

Given the CBT space and the potential 3rd year of control, I think this is a great deal. I also expect nearly all of that CBT space to be saved for potential mid season upgrades. The backup plan for Kelenic for the first few months of the season may be Ozuna, Wall, and another quad A OF with decent defense.
 
This deal was done to get under the 3rd level of CBT penalty. Do we know how far under they are now?

Please don’t respond with anything contradicting the goals of this deal.
 
Let me go out on a limb and say I like this trade and extension a lot. Sales injuries after TJ, which is a fairly routine injury for pitchers, have been largely freak injuries and/or non baseball related. Only the fractured pinky occured from playing baseball. It's a gamble he won't run with scissors and lacerate his pitching arm but an optimistic view is that his arm has had quite a bit of rest. He has always been a guy whose arm was kind of viewed as a ticking time bomb for multiple reasons. He hasn't had the wear and tear from pitching a lot and there's generally a 5 year window after TJ surgery where the arm is less injury prone.
 
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