Some Red State/Blue State Indicia

sturg33 said:
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I find some of that data spurious. It's also assuming that those states are walls. Texas was tight between Trump and Biden. Abbott has slowly been losing ground in gubernatorial elections. If Texas flips purple, entire elections could be lost for the Rs without battleground states. Trump also barely won FLorida and North Carolina.
 
zitothebrave said:
I find some of that data spurious. It's also assuming that those states are walls. Texas was tight between Trump and Biden. Abbott has slowly been losing ground in gubernatorial elections. If Texas flips purple, entire elections could be lost for the Rs without battleground states. Trump also barely won FLorida and North Carolina.
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Barely? Hahahahahaha
 
California has now lost all the tech sector jobs it gained during the boom of 2021/22. Down 27% to pre boom levels and below pre pandemic level- per UW
 
Tapate50 said:
California has now lost all the tech sector jobs it gained during the boom of 2021/22. Down 27% to pre boom levels and below pre pandemic level- per UW
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There have been rumblings that a new Silicon Valley is being built in upstate New York
 
Tapate50 said:
California has now lost all the tech sector jobs it gained during the boom of 2021/22. Down 27% to pre boom levels and below pre pandemic level- per UW
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I think this is going to get really ugly across the board as the “AI” models allow for more complex programming to be done by computers and validated by humans. People keep talking about service industry and the arts as the future victims of AI, but I think companies will realize they can teach a program to do a lot of the legwork and reduce their staff accordingly, resulting in high-paying tech jobs disappearing in a hurry.
 
mqt said:
I think this is going to get really ugly across the board as the “AI” models allow for more complex programming to be done by computers and validated by humans. People keep talking about service industry and the arts as the future victims of AI, but I think companies will realize they can teach a program to do a lot of the legwork and reduce their staff accordingly, resulting in high-paying tech jobs disappearing in a hurry.
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AI use cases are not happening as fast as people thought. The hype is dying at this time.

We are still decades away from high skilled tech jobs disappearing. Low skill entry level will be gone before the end of the decade.
 
zitothebrave said:
I find some of that data spurious. It's also assuming that those states are walls. Texas was tight between Trump and Biden. Abbott has slowly been losing ground in gubernatorial elections. If Texas flips purple, entire elections could be lost for the Rs without battleground states. Trump also barely won FLorida and North Carolina.
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2020 Texas race was about as tight as Cy's mom. Trump won by 5.5 points and 650k votes.

Florida was won by 4 points and 350k votes. Again, not close. Carolina was semi-close in 2020, decided by less than 100k votes. But Trump is polling and 7 points ahead right now.
 
Carp said:
2020 Texas race was about as tight as Cy's mom. Trump won by 5.5 points and 650k votes.

Florida was won by 4 points and 350k votes. Again, not close. Carolina was semi-close in 2020, decided by less than 100k votes. But Trump is polling and 7 points ahead right now.
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Look at historical data though.

2016 Trump won texas by 800K votes and by basically 9 points.
2012 Romney won Texas by 1.2M votes and by 15.5 points

2016 Trump won 200K votes and by almost 4 points.
2012 Romney won by 100K votes and by 2 points.

FLorida for what it's worth I don't think will flip and probably will become what Texas used to be. The big red state while Texas becomes more purple.

But we also have seen that trend in other states, Georgia moved from a Redwall to a purple state. Arizona from a red wall ot a purple state. Before Biden won it the only dem to win Arizona since 1950 was Bill Clinton in 96.

I think what we're seeing is some movement towards some more purple states. It makes sense too the more purple and electoral votes you have the more resources big parties spend on you.

Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, PA, Nevada, etc. will be trying to get money from the big parties while the more walled states get the pity attention.
 
zitothebrave said:
Look at historical data though.

2016 Trump won texas by 800K votes and by basically 9 points.
2012 Romney won Texas by 1.2M votes and by 15.5 points

2016 Trump won 200K votes and by almost 4 points.
2012 Romney won by 100K votes and by 2 points.

FLorida for what it's worth I don't think will flip and probably will become what Texas used to be. The big red state while Texas becomes more purple.

But we also have seen that trend in other states, Georgia moved from a Redwall to a purple state. Arizona from a red wall ot a purple state. Before Biden won it the only dem to win Arizona since 1950 was Bill Clinton in 96.

I think what we're seeing is some movement towards some more purple states. It makes sense too the more purple and electoral votes you have the more resources big parties spend on you.

Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, PA, Nevada, etc. will be trying to get money from the big parties while the more walled states get the pity attention.
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Despite what thethe spouts, Trump is not a well liked candidate among traditional Republicans/conservatives (which make up a ton of TX and FL voters). But neither state is remotely close to turning blue. Particularly TX, where Biden's border policy has pissed off almost every single Texan, regardless of party. Currently Trump is polling 8 points ahead of Biden, and has been polling 8-11 points better than Biden all year. In 2020 he beat Biden by 5.5 points despite only leading by 2-3% in the pre-election polls.

GA went blue one election, which can largely be attributed to COVID. Trump had a comfortable lead in the polls prior to COVID, then slowly Biden took over as the year went on. Currently, Trump has a 5 point advantage in GA and has had a 5+ point advantage all year. Aside from Democrat shenanigans and an October surprise, GA is a lock for Trump and it won't be particularly close. Probably will win by over 200k votes

The main state that has turned purple is North Carolina. It's a state that has been decided by 3 points or less every election since 2008. Conversely though, Trump has managed to turn Iowa and Ohio to deep red states, instead of the swing states they were for the prior 20-30 years.
 
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Carp said:
Despite what thethe spouts, Trump is not a well liked candidate among traditional Republicans/conservatives (which make up a ton of TX and FL voters). But neither state is remotely close to turning blue. Particularly TX, where Biden's border policy has pissed off almost every single Texan, regardless of party. Currently Trump is polling 8 points ahead of Biden, and has been polling 8-11 points better than Biden all year. In 2020 he beat Biden by 5.5 points despite only leading by 2-3% in the pre-election polls.

GA went blue one election, which can largely be attributed to COVID. Trump had a comfortable lead in the polls prior to COVID, then slowly Biden took over as the year went on. Currently, Trump has a 5 point advantage in GA and has had a 5+ point advantage all year. Aside from Democrat shenanigans and an October surprise, GA is a lock for Trump and it won't be particularly close. Probably will win by over 200k votes

The main state that has turned purple is North Carolina. It's a state that has been decided by 3 points or less every election since 2008. Conversely though, Trump has managed to turn Iowa and Ohio to deep red states, instead of the swing states they were for the prior 20-30 years.
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NC is basically only purple because of Durham.

No chance GA is blue this go round.

These overwhelming lean to Trump this time around doesn't bode well for the Dems defense of 2020 being legit.
 
Tapate50 said:
NC is basically only purple because of Durham.

No chance GA is blue this go round.

These overwhelming lean to Trump this time around doesn't bode well for the Dems defense of 2020 being legit.
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Given it's the same 2 candidates, I think any swings greater than 2-3%, particularly in the states that were questioned, would be extremely damning for the "2020 election was the most secure ever crowd."
 
Carp said:
Given it's the same 2 candidates, I think any swings greater than 2-3%, particularly in the states that were questioned, would be extremely damning for the "2020 election was the most secure ever crowd."
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You know whats even crazier, most of the 198 of the party that are such fans of election security voted against the SAVE act.

Kinda crazy ! Almost like they aren't serious?
 
I mean seriously, if Trump sees a swing of 300k+ votes in GA this election, that 2020 election will stink to high heaven, at least in GA.
 
Carp said:
Despite what thethe spouts, Trump is not a well liked candidate among traditional Republicans/conservatives (which make up a ton of TX and FL voters). But neither state is remotely close to turning blue. Particularly TX, where Biden's border policy has pissed off almost every single Texan, regardless of party. Currently Trump is polling 8 points ahead of Biden, and has been polling 8-11 points better than Biden all year. In 2020 he beat Biden by 5.5 points despite only leading by 2-3% in the pre-election polls.

GA went blue one election, which can largely be attributed to COVID. Trump had a comfortable lead in the polls prior to COVID, then slowly Biden took over as the year went on. Currently, Trump has a 5 point advantage in GA and has had a 5+ point advantage all year. Aside from Democrat shenanigans and an October surprise, GA is a lock for Trump and it won't be particularly close. Probably will win by over 200k votes

The main state that has turned purple is North Carolina. It's a state that has been decided by 3 points or less every election since 2008. Conversely though, Trump has managed to turn Iowa and Ohio to deep red states, instead of the swing states they were for the prior 20-30 years.
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Can you not read?

Trends have been going in certain directions. You say Biden blah blah blah, Trump blah blah blah. Look at Tedifer Cruz's elections. Canada Ted took 56.6% of the vote in 2012 vs. 50.8 in 2018. Cornyn went from 61.5 to 53.1

I'm not talking about this election, neither is Sturg, this is talking about 2030 as dynamics shift and we have a repopulation change assuming the changes keep coming as they have etc.
 
sturg33 said:
The trend is not good in TX... but it's possible the Biden implosion is reversing that
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Biden won't win texas, and he'll slightly reverse it. But Texas is trending purple. As is Georgia. Florida is probably moving slightly red. But it's not a wall.
 
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