There's no way Druw doesn't get in next year.
There's nobody on the first ballot next year that should even sniff the HoF to take votes away. I wouldn't be surprised if Beltran, Druw, and even Utley get in next year. Utley made a big jump this year, and with how weak the ballot is next year, very possibly could get in.
I think a lot of writers put Sabathia in on first ballot not because of the Yanks thing, but because Sabathia is one of the last of a dying breed. He came up early 2000's when most starters were going 7+. And he started really young too in his teens IIRC. His WAR isn't that great, but I think the longevity helped. 250 wins for guys in Sabathia's era is about as close to 300 wins as you're gonna get.
After Verlander, I think you only have Kershaw, Scherzer as guys in the 200 win range. 300 will be all but extinct.