Economics Thread

nsacpi said:
You have to understand some of the magnitude. The US collected about $20 billion more in tariffs revenues in May this year than May last year. If half of that is passed on lets say the hit to American consumers is $10 billion per month. But American consumers spend about $1.8 trillion per month. So that $10 hit is a lot but on a percentage basis about 0.5%. That's the likely effect on the CPI by the end of this year. We have seen much yet because a lot of companies worked like crazy building up their inventories in the first quarter ahead of the tariffs.
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Yes - I'm aware of the math.

Produce prices are not rising as expected. Consumer prices are not rising as expected. You can keep saying that 'they are coming' but eventually you lose your runway.

The expectation was that we would see much more of an impact at this time. Denying that seems silly but fine.
 
thethe said:
Guess these companies will end up having years of pre-tariff inventory (which were still subject to some tariffs) to explain away why prices are not increasing to the consumer as economists predicted.

Meanwhile, tens of billions of tariff revenues are coming in while consumers do not see any meaningful prices increases.

Big time L for the experts.
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True. Not sure why Trump chickened out on the bulk of them if it’s all upside, no downside for Americans
 
Consumer demand has also collapsed along with record credit debt. That helps in suppressing prices along with TACOing the tarrifs plus the sweetheart deal he gave to China in exchange for nothing
 
thethe said:
Yes - I'm aware of the math.

Produce prices
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thethe said:
Yes - I'm aware of the math.

Produce prices are not rising as expected. Consumer prices are not rising as expected. You can keep saying that 'they are coming' but eventually you lose your runway.

The expectation was that we would see much more of an impact at this time. Denying that seems silly but fine.
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The PPI doesn't include imports. At all. It was kinda funny seeing Vance do a victory lap about todays PPI data.
 
thethe said:
You know the answer to this but you feel like being cute which is all in good fun.

Wait till July now?
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As has been stated

Inflation went up in June, especially in import heavy industries. The impact was muted due to the pause on the majority of them and inventory build up.

I suspect we will see a similar trend in July. Thankfully, we are going with Bessent’s boil the frog approach.

Anyway, tariffs are boring. A lot has happened since your vacation (Iran, Epstein, BBB, Ukraine). You have a lot of “I told you so’s” to get to
 
chop2chip said:
As has been stated

Inflation went up in June, especially in import heavy industries. The impact was muted due to the pause on the majority of them and inventory build up.

I suspect we will see a similar trend in July. Thankfully, we are going with Bessent’s boil the frog approach.

Anyway, tariffs are boring. A lot has happened since your vacation (Iran, Epstein, BBB, Ukraine). You have a lot of “I told you so’s” to get to
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Iran I'm sure was another panican event here. Another brilliant foreign policy decision by Trump as usual.

Trump and his stupid team royally fucked up the Epstein mess.

BBB is fantastic on the whole. One of the first massive spending cut bill in a long time that will allow us to expel the third world trash in this country.

Putin is showing that Trump and people like me were wrong in that he does not want to come to the table.

Back to tariffs now - When are we going to start seeing the large 'TAXES!' on consumers. How much of an increase would you expect to see?
 
Might be amnesiac but we already discussed June. I’ll repeat for your convenience.

Some inflation (which you haven’t acknowledged) but muted from tariff pauses and inventory build up (with some US firms eating tariff costs in a calculated decision to not draw ire from Trump). We will see a similar trend in July.

But since I’m wrong, we should turn up the dial so we can collect massive tariff revenue with minimal impact to Americans.
 
chop2chip said:
Might be amnesiac but we already discussed June. I’ll repeat for your convenience.

Some inflation (which you haven’t acknowledged) but muted from tariff pauses and inventory build up (with some US firms eating tariff costs in a calculated decision to not draw ire from Trump). We will see a similar trend in July.

But since I’m wrong, we should turn up the dial so we can collect massive tariff revenue with minimal impact to Americans.
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That or get better deals for our exporters.

Again - The argument is that tariffs are fully borne by consumers (basically yours/BL's/Aces/mqt) argument. My argument was that consumers will see a nominal increase in prices while suppliers and corps take majority.

I think we see who is more directionally accurate at this time. But hey, there is always July then August then September!
 
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