2025-2026 offseason thread

Carp said:
FIP is trash if your placing actual value on pitchers.

Elder has an ERA over 5.60 in his last 270 innings dating back to July of 2023. I don't really care what his FIP says over this time. That's a 2.5 year sample. At this point, he is what he is, which is a terrible pitcher.
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Your right that he is what he is. Career 4.4 fip with a 4.5 era. Thats about what we should expect going forward. Acceptable number 5 but hopefully AAA depth.
 
Hmmm... A 3 month sample at the start of his career where he pitched way over his head, or the last 270 innings.

Imma take the last 270 innings.
 
Carp said:
Hmmm... A 3 month sample at the start of his career where he pitched way over his head, or the last 270 innings.

Imma take the last 270 innings.
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If you want to get granular about Bryce fucking Elder then we can.

From when he first came up through the all-star break of 2023 he had 160 innings with a 3.04 ERA and 3.99 FIP.

From the 2023 all-star break until the end of July this year had had 205 innings with a 5.95 era and a 5.03 FIP

Since August of this year he has 62 innings with a 4.06 ERA and a 3.37 FIP.

Acting like he has only been a good pitcher the first half of 2023 is just not factual. He's the literal definition of a #5 starter. He's durable, can eat innings, and when he locates he can be good. When he doesn't locate he gets hit.
 
thewupk said:
If you want to get granular about Bryce fucking Elder then we can.

From when he first came up through the all-star break of 2023 he had 160 innings with a 3.04 ERA and 3.99 FIP.

From the 2023 all-star break until the end of July this year had had 205 innings with a 5.95 era and a 5.03 FIP

Since August of this year he has 62 innings with a 4.06 ERA and a 3.37 FIP.

Acting like he has only been a good pitcher the first half of 2023 is just not factual. He's the literal definition of a #5 starter. He's durable, can eat innings, and when he locates he can be good. When he doesn't locate he gets hit.
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Pretty much.

And instead of playing the arbitrary end points game, he’s a career 4.40 FIP. He ranks 73rd out 94 pitchers right behind Charlie Morton and Miles Mikolas and ahead of Luis Severino, Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios and Lucas Giolito.
 
Bryce Elder is an odd pitcher to be arguing about. If one of you “wins” the argument he’s a #5, and if the other “wins” he’s a AAAA guy.

So keep arguing…I guess…
 
Carp said:
Again, you're missing the point.
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Probably, but I'm not going to think this free agent pitching class is deep or especially likely to have bargains for your favorite guys.

I've explained my thoughts on each m and that's all I can really do.

Atlanta would be wise to sign a SP of course.
Almost goes without saying.
 
Enscheff said:
Setting aside all arguing over semantics of words like "back of the rotation", "quality" and "good", there are SPs available who would be among the best 5 SPs on the Braves roster, and all should be affordable for a team with upwards of $100M to spend. AA needs to get at least 1 because it's almost guaranteed at least 1 of Sale/Schwelly/Strider/Waldrep will not be available opening day, and at least 1 of them will be injured at any given time in 2026.

The 2024/2025 xwOBA of the SPs mentioned in this thread:

Woodruff, Brandon RHP .238 (small sample, did not pitch in 2024)
Suárez, Ranger LHP .289 (.280 in 2025)
Cease, Dylan RHP .290 (.299 in 2025)
Valdez, Framber LHP .300 (.311 in 2025)
King, Michael RHP .303 (.326 in 2025)
Bieber, Shane RHP .310 (.327 in 2025, barely pitched)

MLB average xwOBA in 2025 is .325, which means all guys on this list have been above average pitchers the last 2 years.

Woodruff is the clear choice to gamble on. He's made 12 starts in 2025, and while his velocity is down 3 mph from 2023, he has been very effective. He's the guy if you want a potential TOR guy that starts a playoff series after Sale and Schwelly (assuming Strider never gets back his velocity). His upside makes him the only acceptable injury risk gamble to take.

Cease and Suarez are the next best options of health and expected performance. I prefer Cease, but I've also seen Suarez shut the Braves down so many times I would love to have him too.

Valdez should be in the same tier as Cease/Suarez, but I agree with people who say he may be the overhyped/overpaid SP this year. If he isn't overpaid he would be just fine in this rotation.

King is the same thing as Lopez...let's avoid guys with blaring red injury flags.

Bieber is in the same boat. Let's not fix an injury riddled rotation by signing a guy who made 2 starts in 2024, and 6 starts in 2025, mmmkay?
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It has probably been said numerous times in this thread, but give me Suarez if for no other reason than it prevents the Braves from having to face him 3-4 times per year.
 
35 with an club option maybe for 25?

That's the kind of deal that AA might like, but what kind of prospect capital does that take?

Seems like a deal that is technically underwater if you figure him at 3 wins, but the ability to get a limited commitment for that kind of level guy seems worth extra.
 
Southcack77 said:
35 with an club option maybe for 25?

That's the kind of deal that AA might like, but what kind of prospect capital does that take?

Seems like a deal that is technically underwater if you figure him at 3 wins, but the ability to get a limited commitment for that kind of level guy seems worth extra.
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I think it makes a lot of sense if you believe he is the only piece you need to add. I have no idea what the front office is thinking about the situation with Kim will be and how they will approach other perceived needs.
 
I think the team loads up on pitching after the past 2 seasons. Sonny would be a good get on a short term deal.
 
Southcack77 said:
35 with an club option maybe for 25?

That's the kind of deal that AA might like, but what kind of prospect capital does that take?

Seems like a deal that is technically underwater if you figure him at 3 wins, but the ability to get a limited commitment for that kind of level guy seems worth extra.
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The Cardinals aren’t getting any prospect capital with $40m guaranteed ($35m plus the $5m buyout), and the accompanying $40m LT hit. If they pay down half the contract, they might net some value; as it stands, the deal is underwater, as solid a pitcher as he is. They’d be thrilled if the Braves took him and didn’t ask for any sweeteners.

Having said all that, I think he could make a ton of sense for the Braves, precisely because they reset the tax and have room to absorb. They could even pull a Sale maneuver and redraw his contract to add a couple years and reduce the 2026 hit.
 
I’m pretty sure Gray’s tax hit will only be $35M in 2026, and the 2027 hit will be $5M or $30M. Either way, that type of high price single season contract is exactly what AA usually creams his pants over, and he shouldn’t be too expensive in trade with that salary.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m pretty sure Gray’s tax hit will only be $35M in 2026, and the 2027 hit will be $5M or $30M. Either way, that type of high price single season contract is exactly what AA usually creams his pants over, and he shouldn’t be too expensive in trade with that salary.
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From MLBTR:

Gray is entering the final season of a three-year, $75MM contract. However, he earned just $10MM of that sum in year one of the contract and $25MM in 2025. He’s owed a massive $35MM salary for the 2026 season and at least a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option for the 2027 season. The 2022-26 CBA stipulates that for traded players, their luxury tax hit is recalculated to match the remainder of their contract. As such, Gray comes with a $40MM CBT number. To a team that isn’t paying the luxury tax, that’s perhaps not a dealbreaker. But for third-time payors in the top penalty tier (e.g. Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees), Gray would come with a 110% tax; he’d effectively cost them a staggering $84MM.
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Looking at his 2025 xwOBA that’s a lot of cash to pay a guy who just posted a .314, which is a bit above average. He would be the clear #3 if Strider continues to look like a back end guy.

I feel like I’d rather have woodruff, cease or Suarez
 
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