You’re a broken record man
2025-2026 offseason thread
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Who is Chef even responding to. No one said what he is claiming. Saying Elder is a capable 5th starter in no way means anyone wants to start the year. I think AA fucked up not adding a Quintana level SP because we needed Holmes in the pen but I dont know that theres much we can do for depth unless its coming from our minors. No good SP is gonna sign here to pitch out of the pen waiting for an injury to a SP.
4.17 ERA for Berrios. Sorry, but no. Again, I don't really care what his FIP says. Actual production is important. If Berrios had a 5+ ERA through most of the season, they undoubtedly would have tried to replace him.
Miller regressed/was injured this year, but there was plenty of reason for them to give him an opportunity to work through it given his history of pitching like a solid MOR pitcher. And as you said, they ended up rotating through a host of other pitchers trying to find a better option. They did not find one. Fortunately for them, the Astros has bigger issues with their rotation and the rest of the AL West was not good.
Elder has a 5.63 ERA going on 2.5 seasons and 278 innings now. That's far enough of a sample size to throw his still poor 4.76 FIP out of the window.
msstate7
Well-known member
FWIW, here's his ZIP projection...
Guess this could be one of those times where we don't like ZIPS, but to me, you either give ZIPs weight, or you don't. They were too optimistic this season.
Elder did get better with regular starts. From July till the end...
88.1 ip
4.89 era
3.95 FIP
From August on...
69.0 ip
4.04 era
3.51 FIP
3.73 xFIP
Be nice to know if that's the real elder. Could be... he's only 26 after all
Guess this could be one of those times where we don't like ZIPS, but to me, you either give ZIPs weight, or you don't. They were too optimistic this season.
Elder did get better with regular starts. From July till the end...
88.1 ip
4.89 era
3.95 FIP
From August on...
69.0 ip
4.04 era
3.51 FIP
3.73 xFIP
Be nice to know if that's the real elder. Could be... he's only 26 after all
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Dan hasn’t done released his updated projections for next year right? He usually does that in December.FWIW, here's his ZIP projection...
Guess this could be one of those times where we don't like ZIPS, but to me, you either give ZIPs wright, or you don't.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Obviously the Dodgers signed a lot of starting pitching and a lot of everything on top of that, but I'm not clear what the realistic blueprint for a team staying under the cap line would have been to sign quality 8th starters out of free agency.
You ok bro?
Youre cherry picking of stats is quite pathetic. He's a mid 4 FIP and ERA guy. That's fine as your #5 starter regardless of whatever personal grievance you have agaisnt Elder.
Dodger's May is another guy who had 18 starts with a mid 4 FIP.
Padres Vazquez had 26 starts with a 4.8 FIP
The Cubs Tailon and Imanaga as well.
It must have been a miracle for these contendors to make the playoffs with someone in their rotation with a mid 4 FIP. Truly a once in a lifetime situation for them.
FWIW, here's his ZIP projection...
Guess this could be one of those times where we don't like ZIPS, but to me, you either give ZIPs weight, or you don't. They were too optimistic this season.
Elder did get better with regular starts. From July till the end...
88.1 ip
4.89 era
3.95 FIP
From August on...
69.0 ip
4.04 era
3.51 FIP
3.73 xFIP
Be nice to know if that's the real elder. Could be... he's only 26 after all
The real Elder is what you see from his career stats. That's who is he. 5th starters like Elder are going to have stretches where they can't locate anything well and will get blasted. Then he's going to have a string of starts where that sinker is staying low in the zone and he's going to pitch well. Back of the rotation starters are always going to have some kind of flaw. And for Elder it's the lack of consistant location.
Arguing about whether elder is a 5th or 7th sp is the stupid depth argument from another angle.
Bottom line is he isn’t good enough to lead the team in starts, and only did so due to AA’s failure to acquire depth. This is a discussion that wouldn’t even be happening if AA didn’t fail.
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Elder himself is not the problem. He’s fine for what he is. I like the idea of Elder as the guy who gets all the starts that went to Cal Quantrill, Eric Fedde, and Carlos Carrasco.
It’s more of a problem when he’s the first man up to replace whenever Sale or Strider are hurt.
My threshold is 15 starts. If Elder gets less than that, then AA has done a great job building depth. If he gets more than that, then AA didn’t do his job accounting for the significant injury risks in the rotation.
It’s more of a problem when he’s the first man up to replace whenever Sale or Strider are hurt.
My threshold is 15 starts. If Elder gets less than that, then AA has done a great job building depth. If he gets more than that, then AA didn’t do his job accounting for the significant injury risks in the rotation.
This is the correct take.
The issue isn’t “is elder a legit #5?”.
The issue is this discussion is even happening because he started something like 30 games in a season where the Braves missed the playoffs by 7 fucking games.
The depth was the issue, not elder.
The counter to that is what is a realistic expectation for the who first man up to replace Sale or Strider if they are hurt? If it's someone signifigantly better than Elder then that person isn't going to here via FA so they can sit in AAA. And trading for that person is a huge waste of assets. The only realistic option in that scenario is to have someone on the farm who can come in but in that case if they are already that good they would be in the rotation anyways.
Elder is the exact type of pitcher yould want for a #5 starter/depth piece.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I really think you are arguing a straw man.
But I’ll reframe this discussion to hopefully something we can agree on.
The problem isn’t Bryce Elder. The problem is that we need 3-5 Bryce Elders and we only have 1.
The other aspect of this is contending teams need at least three number 3 or better pitchers healthy for the postseason which the Braves have, but the injury risk is so significant that AA needs to some how account for that risk. Elder is not good enough to do that
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Well we did have a few other Elder type starters. But they got hurt too in AJSS And Holmes.
They really needed two more quality starters entering the year. One to fill in for Strider until he came back and one for Lopez.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Holmes and Lopez both need to be BP arms going forward. If they can both be healthy they'll be really good depth and Ritchie is almost ready so the quality depth should be there next year without doing to much. AA just needs to get one more really good SP bc Sale and a few others will definitely miss time.
Cherry picking what? It's literally his last 278 innings. Over 2.5 years.
Dustin May was cut by the Dodgers. Seems like they thought his production wasn't cutting it. We would do well to do the same.
Vazquez had a 3.84 ERA. Taillion was at 3.68. Even though it is likely not sustainable, the results are in fact very valuable.
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