OFFICIAL FALLING AXE PREDICTION THREAD

And we lost that game and missed the playoffs. Veteran leadership is overrated.

You're a mod around here, but you are dead wrong on this. There is no one in the everyday lineup willing to chew tail when needed. And you are seeing the results. No accountability.
 
Between CJ, TLS, Goss, Kubitza and Peraza, there is probably enough IF talent in the organization to cobble together an acceptable platoon situation at 3B and 2B, especially considering how cheap all those options will be for the foreseeable future.

The true fix needs to come in the OF. Wren must acquire another bat that can legitimately hit in the top half of the lineup, either as a leadoff option or as a middle of the order guy so Heyward can leadoff. This OFer does NOT have to play CF since Heyward should easily be able to play an average CF, but he can't be a Gattis-level butcher out there either.

I fully expect the rotation to be anchored by Teheran, Wood and Minor. Wren must find another reliable starter to stick in the middle of the rotation. Making a QO to Santana and trying to sign him to a reasonable 3 year deal makes a lot of sense. Wren then needs to find another scrap heap guy like Harang to come in and battle Hale and the other young guys for the 5th slot.

As far as management goes...who knows. It wouldn't break my heart to see Fredi go, but I have a feeling the problem is more a player-based leadership issue than anything else. These guys have simply rolled over and died, and no amount of rah-rah from any 50+ year old man is going to light a fire under a bunch of professional adult athletes. This isn't Little League or the movie Hoosiers.
 
Between CJ, TLS, Goss, Kubitza and Peraza, there is probably enough IF talent in the organization to cobble together an acceptable platoon situation at 3B and 2B, especially considering how cheap all those options will be for the foreseeable future.

The true fix needs to come in the OF. Wren must acquire another bat that can legitimately hit in the top half of the lineup, either as a leadoff option or as a middle of the order guy so Heyward can leadoff. This OFer does NOT have to play CF since Heyward should easily be able to play an average CF, but he can't be a Gattis-level butcher out there either.

I fully expect the rotation to be anchored by Teheran, Wood and Minor. Wren must find another reliable starter to stick in the middle of the rotation. Making a QO to Santana and trying to sign him to a reasonable 3 year deal makes a lot of sense. Wren then needs to find another scrap heap guy like Harang to come in and battle Hale and the other young guys for the 5th slot.

As far as management goes...who knows. It wouldn't break my heart to see Fredi go, but I have a feeling the problem is more a player-based leadership issue than anything else. These guys have simply rolled over and died, and no amount of rah-rah from any 50+ year old man is going to light a fire under a bunch of professional adult athletes. This isn't Little League or the movie Hoosiers.

Between Peraza, Cunningham, Wren and Terdoslavich, we might have an acceptable internal solution for the third outfielder as well.

I do agree on the need for a starting pitcher. And I think our top priority should be extending Heyward and Justin Upton, which makes it important that we move as much of BJ's contract as possible.
 
Nice post 50

I will tell you why I like TLS.

I don't think he's any form of superstar. But he should be a solid player. This year his numbers are. 10.3 BB% 11.4 K% .068 iso .290 BABIP 22.7 LD% 1.3 HR/FB%

Looking at those numbers he should have a higher BABIP. If we assume he should have a .330 BABIP (BABIP is estimated as your LD% plus .1.) his Average would go up to about 294. If his line was .294/.366/.362 would you complain at all? I wouldn't. His slg is also liekly down. I don't think from what I've seen that he has less power than Adam Eaton, Alcides Escobar, Norichka Aoki Elvis Andrus, or Zack Cozart who have high HR/FB this year.

La Stella is what I term a "contingent" player in that his value is heavily dependent on those around him. Don't get me wrong. He's an alright player who could contribute in the right situation. His selectivity is helpful, but he doesn't have much power or much speed. He needs help from those around him and he simply didn't get it this year. I don't know if his BABIP gets better or not. I think the thing about him is that his walk rate has fallen from his minor league numbers which is to be expected because believe it or not (and I know some--not you--will find this difficult believe) teams scout other teams and scouts actually do know something. Because La Stella can't go deep, they are likely challenging him and he's going to have to make adjustments.
 
La Stella is what I term a "contingent" player in that his value is heavily dependent on those around him. Don't get me wrong. He's an alright player who could contribute in the right situation. His selectivity is helpful, but he doesn't have much power or much speed. He needs help from those around him and he simply didn't get it this year. I don't know if his BABIP gets better or not. I think the thing about him is that his walk rate has fallen from his minor league numbers which is to be expected because believe it or not (and I know some--not you--will find this difficult believe) teams scout other teams and scouts actually do know something. Because La Stella can't go deep, they are likely challenging him and he's going to have to make adjustments.

I like La Stella but I don't think he provides much value as an everyday player at the major leagues. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't have good speed and isn't a great fielder. His only real value comes from average and ability to get on base. When he first came up he was very selective and taking his walks but lately I think he's been pressing a bit and hasn't been taking as many pitches or drawing as many walks. Since August 11th he only has 6 walks and 2 of those came in the Texas series. Hopefully this is just a bit of a slump and I definitely wouldn't complain if he was hitting around .300/.350/.350
 
With the rumors that JS had to step in to keep Roger McDowell from going to Philadelphia, it would not surprise me to see him step in and make a clean sweep of the front office and coaching staff. There have been other rumors that Frank Wren has trouble getting along with some people within the organization.

I don't know what happens, but I do know the Braves have a rising star in the executive world in John Coppolella. It would be a damn shame to lose him because we are reluctant to make a move at the top.

I've been saying for a while now that I put more of this season on Frank Wren than Fredi Gonzalez. Frank is the one that put together a team that lives and dies by the home run. He's the one that put together a weak bench. He's also been the guy in charge while the farm system has deteriorated. Some may say that it is weaker because of the promotions that team has had. I would respond that yes, the team has had some promotions, but previously, this was a team that always restocked the cupboard. Right now, the cupboard is relatively bare.

Coppolella seems to have a nice mix of the traditional scouting methods as well as an understanding of advanced stats.
 
This marks the 2nd September swoon in 3 years. Someone has to take the heat for that. In my estimation is falls on 2 people, Wren and Fredi Gonzalez. If either is still with the braves a in 2015 we will be in for more of this. We have a good core, Freeman, Gattis (yes Gattis not Bethancourt), Simmons, Teheran, Wood, I might even include Heyward, yet he still has not shown the promise that we have expected, although he has been a real team player. Neither Upton has impressed me over the long haul, sure Justin has stretches, but he also stinks for stretches and is not a good defensive outfielder. BJ, not much to say, Chris Johnson has become "Rally killer" Johnson. We have no power at 3b, none whatsoever at 2b, no bat in center at all, if you keep Bethancourt over Gattis you diminish it even more. I would look to move Minor, Chris Johnson, both Uptons, I would move Bethancourt over Gattis, and LaStella does not impress me as an everyday starter. I certainly would not resign Santana, I might give a million to keep Harang, but I would look at him as long relief, not a starter.

I start with looking for a front of the rotation pitcher, then I look first and foremost for a true leadoff guy, then I look for decent OBP players for the other spots.
 
How can you say that. Our tail chewing % is the lowest in the league. What we need are players with high tail chewing % and who look in the mirror for hours everyday. That's how you win games.

Make fun all you want but anybody that's either been on a team or around athletics at any level respects intangibles. This team lacks them in spades. Remember back to high school when your team was playing that "cupcake" and you knew the minute you lined up across from your guy you had them? Well it ties back into this year's braves like this, not one man is afraid to fail and thus they accept it. A stat was brought up tonight on the Washington broadcast since the last week of April we are a half game better than the Astros....
 
This marks the 2nd September swoon in 3 years. Someone has to take the heat for that. In my estimation is falls on 2 people, Wren and Fredi Gonzalez. If either is still with the braves a in 2015 we will be in for more of this. We have a good core, Freeman, Gattis (yes Gattis not Bethancourt), Simmons, Teheran, Wood, I might even include Heyward, yet he still has not shown the promise that we have expected, although he has been a real team player. Neither Upton has impressed me over the long haul, sure Justin has stretches, but he also stinks for stretches and is not a good defensive outfielder. BJ, not much to say, Chris Johnson has become "Rally killer" Johnson. We have no power at 3b, none whatsoever at 2b, no bat in center at all, if you keep Bethancourt over Gattis you diminish it even more. I would look to move Minor, Chris Johnson, both Uptons, I would move Bethancourt over Gattis, and LaStella does not impress me as an everyday starter. I certainly would not resign Santana, I might give a million to keep Harang, but I would look at him as long relief, not a starter.

I start with looking for a front of the rotation pitcher, then I look first and foremost for a true leadoff guy, then I look for decent OBP players for the other spots.

Gattis can't stay healthy. Better sell high if we get that chance. CB is our future backstop.
 
Make fun all you want but anybody that's either been on a team or around athletics at any level respects intangibles. This team lacks them in spades. Remember back to high school when your team was playing that "cupcake" and you knew the minute you lined up across from your guy you had them? Well it ties back into this year's braves like this, not one man is afraid to fail and thus they accept it. A stat was brought up tonight on the Washington broadcast since the last week of April we are a half game better than the Astros....

Are you Kevin Towers?
 
I'll bet there is plenty of random and haphazard tail chewing going on in the clubhouse. This season has to be an embarrassment to them.

But you still can't deny that we lost a ton of leadership when we lost McCann, Huddy, David Ross and Eric Hinske.
 
I'll bet there is plenty of random and haphazard tail chewing going on in the clubhouse. This season has to be an embarrassment to them.

But you still can't deny that we lost a ton of leadership when we lost McCann, Huddy, David Ross and Eric Hinske.

I'm not gonna deny that, or that we miss those guys, but let's not forget that every one of those guys—plus Larry Jones—was on the roster during the 2011 collapse.
 
I like La Stella but I don't think he provides much value as an everyday player at the major leagues. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't have good speed and isn't a great fielder. His only real value comes from average and ability to get on base. When he first came up he was very selective and taking his walks but lately I think he's been pressing a bit and hasn't been taking as many pitches or drawing as many walks. Since August 11th he only has 6 walks and 2 of those came in the Texas series. Hopefully this is just a bit of a slump and I definitely wouldn't complain if he was hitting around .300/.350/.350

Since August 11th he's still walking around 7.5% of the time. It's down from his norm, but he was off a higher walk rate, then he has a lower one, he's done it before too. It's baseball no one is consistent all of the time. He started early on in a similar not his first 12 game he only walked like 6.5% of the time. Then his next 12 he walked 12%. It happens. It's baseball. TLS has basically been sitting around 10% all year.

Again I think the bulk of his "issues" has been sampling from his platoon situation. I'm fine with him occasionally sitting against tough lefties (like Kershaw or Lee) but I think he's a better outside of a platoon. Also I'm pretty sure he'll have more homers. Not an insane number of course, but he should have 2 or 3 right now and that boosts his overall numbers. Lets say he has 3 homers picking on a few flyballs that die at the wall, it adds 25 points to his iso which drastically changes his dynamic, add an improved BABIP and he is set.
 
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