It's definitely a risk no question. But the success rate for first time tommy john operations is 85%. I know we're all sensitive about it because of Medlen and Beachy but chances are Fried will come back very strong. So you wouldn't have any interest in Giolito because he's had TJ before? How about Strasburg? Is he going to be non tendered soon? We've run into really bad luck but that doesn't change the fact that TJ has a very high success rate.
Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects
- Thread starter mikewon
- Start date
It's definitely a risk no question. But the success rate for first time tommy john operations is 85%. I know we're all sensitive about it because of Medlen and Beachy but chances are Fried will come back very strong. So you wouldn't have any interest in Giolito because he's had TJ before? How about Strasburg? Is he going to be non tendered soon? We've run into really bad luck but that doesn't change the fact that TJ has a very high success rate.
So you've been in on every conversation Hart's had? Just because Jace isn't a star prospect doesn't mean he's mediocre. Dustin has plenty of talent to become an everyday 3B but needs time to develop. Mallex is also a very interesting prospect. No sure things but relax. These guys are talented.
Everyone continues to miss the point...
Pitchers get ONE "mulligan" with TJS. Fried has already used his mulligan before he stepped foot on a MLB mound. And Hart just gave up the most valuable trade chip in baseball for that.
If the pitcher is already in your system you obviously roll with it, but why in the world trade for someone that already used their one mulligan?
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Apparently alot of our fans have been in those talks with Hart the way they are posting about it.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Ok if not this trade, what?
And no, you dont know what other trade offers Hart had.
You cant keep him and just get a draft pick.
For ONE year of Upton, this is about as good as you could hope for.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Why is it anymore likely to for Wood/Fried to pop their elbow out than any other pitcher?
I would be more concerned with that injury leading to other injuries. That seems more common than second TJ's. I don't think there is a large enough sample size of guys who have had TJ to form any conclusion. The consensus, I believe, is that it's highly unlikely.
And anyone who presumed to know what offers were/weren't/could/should/etc. on the table is being silly.
I would be more concerned with that injury leading to other injuries. That seems more common than second TJ's. I don't think there is a large enough sample size of guys who have had TJ to form any conclusion. The consensus, I believe, is that it's highly unlikely.
And anyone who presumed to know what offers were/weren't/could/should/etc. on the table is being silly.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Erick Fedde was taken mid first round after TJS. He fell, what, maybe 10 spots? I think you are overestimating how much surgery dings value.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I don't think you are wrong to say the Braves shouldn't have traded for him, but this mulligan talk does not make any sense.
So a player with one year of control destined for free agency and a $200M contract is the most valuable piece in baseball? I love Justin and wanted nothing more then to lock him up long term. But when you're trading a player a year from free agency it hurts their value. I would have preferred getting Fried and Liriano over the other pieces but we got a solid package.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
How do you know what other offers he had or put with Justin, you dont, no one does.
Again, this is hardly the best trade ever but some of the players are pretty intriguing when you break it all down.
Tommy John is just like ACL injuries for football, most players come back pretty strong the year after.
Also, Justin is one year away from FA, that hurts other teams value and the package they'll offer for him.
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
The fact of the matter is you have no clue what kind of offers Hart had. And why are you speaking like the Padres were the only one in the mix?
All of the posters who believe that Hart didn't get enough value for Upton are assuming he had better offers even before teams started picking up pieces and dropping out on him when the fact is you don't know anything about the offers he had.
If you want to argue the Braves would be better off keeping Upton and just getting the draft pick I suppose you can do that, but it seems to be pretty obvious that the Braves got substantially more value than a supplemental pick.
All of the posters who believe that Hart didn't get enough value for Upton are assuming he had better offers even before teams started picking up pieces and dropping out on him when the fact is you don't know anything about the offers he had.
If you want to argue the Braves would be better off keeping Upton and just getting the draft pick I suppose you can do that, but it seems to be pretty obvious that the Braves got substantially more value than a supplemental pick.
The consensus so far is that there is no way we would have ever gotten Max Fried for Upton if he was healthy. We took advantage of the opportunity to get a very high upside starter who otherwise would never be available in addition to getting 3 other pieces back.
It's not that they are any more likely. They are probably about equally likely. The difference is when Fried pops his elbow he is done, as in out of baseball. When Teheran pops his, he still has his mulligan, sits out 1 year, and then comes back to contribute.
I obviously know nothing about potential offers, but if any of you think Hart got the best deal for JUp after most of the suitors filled their RHed power needs AND after the Padres already added 2 corner bats...I don't know what else to say other than you need to work on your deductive reasoning skills.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
UGH UNJINX UNJINX UNJINX UNJINX UNJINX UNJINX
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
GAAAAAAAAH UNJINX INFINITY WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE
This isn't true.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Yeah I think it's far more likely that he held onto Justin this long because there were no offers better than what we got from SD. Obviously what's better is perception but Hart showed he wasn't shy about making a deal quickly if he got what he wanted in the Heywood trade.
I think most teams have got hosed when trading quality players with the exception of the Heywood trade.
I think most teams have got hosed when trading quality players with the exception of the Heywood trade.
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
You are again just stating conjecture. We have no clue what the offers were before suitors filled their needs.
Even to state that the Padres offer was likely better before they traded for Kemp and Myers is conjecture. For all we know the offer Hart accepted was the one they had out there the whole time.
People seem to be highly undervaluing years of control.
I can't say that Hart got what was reported he wanted which was a deal better than the Heyward deal as I don't know a ton about the players coming to the Braves, but the lefty pitcher and the speedster outfielder at least sound pretty promising.
Even to state that the Padres offer was likely better before they traded for Kemp and Myers is conjecture. For all we know the offer Hart accepted was the one they had out there the whole time.
People seem to be highly undervaluing years of control.
I can't say that Hart got what was reported he wanted which was a deal better than the Heyward deal as I don't know a ton about the players coming to the Braves, but the lefty pitcher and the speedster outfielder at least sound pretty promising.
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's the only part of what you said in that second paragraph that matters.
I don't fault you for not loving the return. I think we all are collectively disappointed we didn't get a bigger return.
Perhaps Hart deserves some criticism for not being able to sell other GM's on the value of his players. That could be a fair criticism (I, however, believe the salesmanship effect of baseball is fading evermore with the use of analytics). But it's not fair to criticize him for not choosing a magical offer that may have never existed. You yourself admit that you don't know if one existed.
keithlaw
Playing the Waiting Game
Upton is not even close to the most valuable trade chip in baseball. He's not even our most valuable trade chip.
dak
Well-known member
Interview with Hart after Upton trade. A lot of interesting stuff, but here's one of the more newsy items:
"It was a depth trade. It really helped our system. It might help us short term with Jace Peterson. As we go forward, we picked up what we think are four really good players. In addition, we gained a little more of the international money. We've signed eight guys already with the [$800,000 received via a trade with the Cubs in November]. We've got three more guys we want to get and we were running short on cash. I think this will help us."
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/articl...-sees-major-value-in-newly-acquired-prospects
"It was a depth trade. It really helped our system. It might help us short term with Jace Peterson. As we go forward, we picked up what we think are four really good players. In addition, we gained a little more of the international money. We've signed eight guys already with the [$800,000 received via a trade with the Cubs in November]. We've got three more guys we want to get and we were running short on cash. I think this will help us."
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/articl...-sees-major-value-in-newly-acquired-prospects