goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
how?
Braves donate Justin Upton to Padres for prospects
- Thread starter mikewon
- Start date
how?
I've explained it already sir.
Just not intelligently.
We will see where baseball goes.
Again, I've never said it was going to be an end all stat. My claim is that its going to be valued more moving forward than it was the last 15-20 years.
Yes I understand that. What I'm saying is that HR hitters are going to have high RBI/at bat rates. But that doesn't mean they are as valuable on the whole as guys with higher averages with RISP. I don't think anyone would say Justin was not valuable at all with RISP. But the low average definitely cost us some runs. Although he certainly wasn't the only culprit in that area.
Hey, watch that! My Uncle Earl was a scappy white guy. Also very addle-pated.
Good offense is still going to be good offense regardless of where it comes from or how it happens. A 260/350/510 player will still be more valuable than a 300/350/425 player. You just may see more players with a higher average if the league shifts in that direction.
Why are we discussing RBI like it's some important stat? Players with more RBI chances tend to have more RBI. Averages with RISP are flukey from year to year and over time will generally reflect a persons average as a whole. Good hitters are good hitters and bad hitters are bad hitters regardless if they are lucky or not in one given situation for a year.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
All I said was, flukey or not, Upton was poor with RISP and it hurt us at least a little bit. Someone that lucked into hitting .300 at the 4 spot instead of .228 and .243 would have helped.
It depends what someone did with that .300 average. A line of 300/350/350 for example wouldn't have been much better if any. So you have to look at more then just batting average. That said it looked like Upton was just unlucky with RISP this past year. He walked more, struck out less, and had a much lower BABIP with RISP.
But yeah if Upton hit better with RISP it would have helped some. Most players aren't perfect.
I think consistency is going to be the big thing now. Which teams can consistently string together more productive AB's. I'm really just not sure anymore. I think the statline that you quoted may be a player that flames out real quick after 30 because they lose some bat speed. The shift in baseball is dramatic and I think everything we've "known" from the last 15 years will have to be re-learned.
"Both teams announced the deal via press release. The final deal has Justin Upton and right-handed pitcher Aaron Northcraft going to the Padres for left-hander Max Fried, second baseman/shortstop Jace Peterson, third baseman Dustin Peterson, outfielder Mallex Smith, and international bonus compensation."
Moncada?
Moncada?
Statistically speaking I don't think so. Better stats and ways to evaluate the game will always improve but I don't think we're going to get away from what we know scores the most runs. And that is getting on base and hitting for extra base hits. Branch Rickey way back when even stated this and had his own crude version of OPS. While everyone was talking about batting average and the like he went beyond that. He even went into why fielding percentage as state is a joke when looking at the big picture. He was a man ahead of his time in more ways then one.
Now the league shifts from pitching first to offense first all the time. We are definitely in a pitching league with 2014 having the fewest runs per game in like 3 decades. Homerun totals are down tremendously compared to 15 years ago. So while those are still extremely valuable you aren't going to find as many guys that can do that so you have to look elsewhere. With less guys that can put the ball over the fence you are going to have to be less tolerable of those that strikeout a lot. It's not that the philosophy of being able to live with strikeouts if they can walk a lot and mash homers is wrong it's just that there won't be as many players that can do that to make it worth it. So with less of those guys out there you will need to look elsewhere for good offense. Guys that maybe don't strike out much and are more of gap power hitters that can get on base may become more common. Again just because those hitters could become more common doesn't necessarily make them better then strikeout mashers. It just means those type of hitters aren't as available as they were a decade ago.
Now whether this shift is a combination of better pitching or just worse hitters, I don't know. I suspect it's a combination of both. What I think is really happening is the borderline K/power guys (like BJ for example) who could of survived a decade ago no longer can against slightly better pitching. So now they are almost completely worthless and it's going to take a different kind of approach.
Again it's all about results. Justin is going to be a high K high power guy. He's a really good hitter. I will take really good hitters regardless of how it happens. There just aren't as many hitters like him as there was a decade ago. He will survive but the borderline guys like his brother who could hack it a few years ago no longer can. With those types of hitters being phased out it's time to look in a different direction for offense. And that could very well be the low K guys who make contact. Time will tell. But whatever happens it doesn't mean we will have to relearn anything. It's just the way baseball has shifted like it has for the past 100 years.
Again, you're ascribing a narrative to random events.
Yes, the Giants and Cardinals have had good teams in the past decade or so, so they make the playoffs a lot.. so they deserve their success, without a doubt. Do they deserve it more than the As or Tampa Bay or even the Braves? I don't think so, personally. They got to the playoffs and got hot or rode a hot pitcher or whatever.
Not sure if this metaphor will translate, but if you roll a die 6 times, the most likely outcome is not 1-2-3-5-6.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
I seem to recall more than a few crushing playoff loses via home run.
Chris Burke delenda est.
http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/ml...st-to-ask-toronto-blue-jays-for-jeff-hoffman/
The Baltimore Orioles aren’t the first team to ask for Jeff Hoffman this winter, folks with the Toronto Blue Jays will tell you.
Despite the fact he won’t be ready to pitch in games until May — and despite the fact that as a 2014 draftee, he couldn’t join his new team until after this June’s draft — the Atlanta Braves asked the Blue Jays if they would make Hoffman the focal point of a deal for outfielder Justin Upton, who is a year away from free agency. Hoffman would have been a player to be named later. The answer was an emphatic “no.”
I don't know what it says about Justin's value that Hoffman was an 'emphatic' no in trade talks, but the Blue Jays were apparently strongly considering trading him straight up for Duquette.
The Baltimore Orioles aren’t the first team to ask for Jeff Hoffman this winter, folks with the Toronto Blue Jays will tell you.
Despite the fact he won’t be ready to pitch in games until May — and despite the fact that as a 2014 draftee, he couldn’t join his new team until after this June’s draft — the Atlanta Braves asked the Blue Jays if they would make Hoffman the focal point of a deal for outfielder Justin Upton, who is a year away from free agency. Hoffman would have been a player to be named later. The answer was an emphatic “no.”
I don't know what it says about Justin's value that Hoffman was an 'emphatic' no in trade talks, but the Blue Jays were apparently strongly considering trading him straight up for Duquette.