REAL FOOTBALL Thread

I picked 20 running backs over the past 15-20 years that had a significant amount of carries before age 26.

Jones Drew

Chris Johnson

Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Curtis Martin

Jamal Lewis

Edge

Terrell Davis

Stephen Jackson

Gore

Ronnie Brown

Fred Taylor

Portis

Ahman Green

Emmitt Smith

Barry Sanders

Corey Dillon

Rickey Waters

Eddie George

Marshawn Lynch

Of not, 3 of the 30 retired after their age 30 season and 2 more retired after aged 31 season

Here is the average age 26 season based on the statistic "Approximate Value" by profootballreference

Age 26- 13.9

Age 27- 11.3 (decrease of 18.4%)

Age 28- 9.3 (decrease of 18.1%)

Age 29- 8.1 (decreased of 12.9%)

Age 30- 7.9 (decrease of 2.3%)

Age 31- 6.7(decrease of 14.9%)

Using yards per carry-

Age 26- 4.5

Age 27- 4.2

Age 28- 4.2

Age 29- 4.0

Age 30- 3.9

Age 31- 3.9

So what age do you think running backs fall apart at?

Im guessing Chip has access to a similar study over a larger sample. But, he looked and saw that running backs dip after age 26 and while Shady could still be valuable for a couple years, the likelihood is that he's going to be dropping fast. So why pay 10 million for that when you can get a young linebacker and either sign Spiller or draft a RB in a loaded RB draft?
 
gilesfan said:
I picked 20 running backs over the past 15-20 years that had a significant amount of carries before age 26.

Jones Drew

Chris Johnson

Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Curtis Martin

Jamal Lewis

Edge

Terrell Davis

Stephen Jackson

Gore

Ronnie Brown

Fred Taylor

Portis

Ahman Green

Emmitt Smith

Barry Sanders

Corey Dillon

Rickey Waters

Eddie George

Marshawn Lynch

Of not, 3 of the 30 retired after their age 30 season and 2 more retired after aged 31 season

Here is the average age 26 season based on the statistic "Approximate Value" by profootballreference

Age 26- 13.9

Age 27- 11.3 (decrease of 18.4%)

Age 28- 9.3 (decrease of 18.1%)

Age 29- 8.1 (decreased of 12.9%)

Age 30- 7.9 (decrease of 2.3%)

Age 31- 6.7(decrease of 14.9%)

Using yards per carry-

Age 26- 4.5

Age 27- 4.2

Age 28- 4.2

Age 29- 4.0

Age 30- 3.9

Age 31- 3.9

So what age do you think running backs fall apart at?

Im guessing Chip has access to a similar study over a larger sample. But, he looked and saw that running backs dip after age 26 and while Shady could still be valuable for a couple years, the likelihood is that he's going to be dropping fast. So why pay 10 million for that when you can get a young linebacker and either sign Spiller or draft a RB in a loaded RB draft?
Click to expand...

Yup. Good findings.

How can anyone ever deny the running back aging curve?
 
gilesfan said:
I picked 20 running backs over the past 15-20 years that had a significant amount of carries before age 26.

Jones Drew

Chris Johnson

Tomlinson

Shaun Alexander

Curtis Martin

Jamal Lewis

Edge

Terrell Davis

Stephen Jackson

Gore

Ronnie Brown

Fred Taylor

Portis

Ahman Green

Emmitt Smith

Barry Sanders

Corey Dillon

Rickey Waters

Eddie George

Marshawn Lynch

Of not, 3 of the 30 retired after their age 30 season and 2 more retired after aged 31 season

Here is the average age 26 season based on the statistic "Approximate Value" by profootballreference

Age 26- 13.9

Age 27- 11.3 (decrease of 18.4%)

Age 28- 9.3 (decrease of 18.1%)

Age 29- 8.1 (decreased of 12.9%)

Age 30- 7.9 (decrease of 2.3%)

Age 31- 6.7(decrease of 14.9%)

Using yards per carry-

Age 26- 4.5

Age 27- 4.2

Age 28- 4.2

Age 29- 4.0

Age 30- 3.9

Age 31- 3.9

So what age do you think running backs fall apart at?

Im guessing Chip has access to a similar study over a larger sample. But, he looked and saw that running backs dip after age 26 and while Shady could still be valuable for a couple years, the likelihood is that he's going to be dropping fast. So why pay 10 million for that when you can get a young linebacker and either sign Spiller or draft a RB in a loaded RB draft?
Click to expand...

No one ever denied that RBs can fall off earlier than other positions. The point is, the Eagles window for competing could be pretty short depending on their QB situation. McCoy is still a top back in this league now. Trading him now is very risky, unless the plan is to draft Gurley or Gordon, or sign one of the best FA rbs. No one has questioned that this is a good move if you're looking at 3 years from now.
 
Oher was the worst O-Lineman on what was one of the worst OL's in the league last yr. Still getting a job because of his name.

He may be ok strictly as depth. No way should he be starting for anyone.
 
Carp said:
No one ever denied that RBs can fall off earlier than other positions. The point is, the Eagles window for competing could be pretty short depending on their QB situation. McCoy is still a top back in this league now. Trading him now is very risky, unless the plan is to draft Gurley or Gordon, or sign one of the best FA rbs. No one has questioned that this is a good move if you're looking at 3 years from now.
Click to expand...

Mccoy was ranked 24th last year (lower by pro football focus)
 
Tapate50 said:
Why did SF not make a play for Marshall???
Click to expand...

Well, they dont have a ton of cap room to absurb his deal at the moment...

More surprised Seattle didnt make a play for him, god knows they need help in that area.
 
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