I will stick to my guns...

[chop2chip]

The optimism of the team always reaches a high after Shelby pitches, but once we get to the backend of the rotation it fades. Therein lies the problem and I don't know if it is reasonable to assume that problem can be fixed without a couple major surprises.

 

[nsacpi]

The optimism of the team always reaches a high after Shelby pitches, but once we get to the backend of the rotation it fades. Therein lies the problem and I don't know if it is reasonable to assume that problem can be fixed without a couple major surprises.

Yeah. Williams Perez or some other fifth starter needs to step forward. If that happens we'll have a more than solid rotation.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Any improvement from Teheran will be countered in game by Shelby Miller falling back to his peripherals. .183 BABIP as a ground ball pitcher is not sustainable. That will rise sharply and when it does his ERA will come with it. Still he's pitching very well, not trying to discount that, but he's got basically the same FIP and xFIP that Wood has but his ERA is 2 and a half runs lower.

Them the what happens when Kelly JOohnson comes back to earth, Nick Markakis's BABIP returns to career norms, and tons of other things that could go wrong.

The Braves need essentially a lot of guys to over achieve and few guys to underachieve. I dont' like betting on those odds. We're devoid of a lot of good players. Let's say Julio, Wood, Miller, Freeman, and Simmons are our good-great players. Where are we after that? Who else can you say we should be able to ocunt on that guy? Last year we had Jason, Justin, Freddie, Wood, Julio, Kimbrel, Simmons, and Gattis.

Seriously there's not much you should be optimistic about. Our catcher of the future has performed way worse than expected, we don't have a real CF solution (though Maybin has performed better) Alberto Callaspo and Johnny Gomes are the turds we knew they'd be, Our bright spots are Simmons is hitting like he did in 2013, and Freddie is still Freddie, and Jace has been solid. He's not been a star by any means. Last year we had 3 position players with an fWAR over 4 and 4 incredibly reliable pitchers and a lights out back end of the bullpen. Assume Julio gets back to where we want him to be. I think we have 3 reliable pitchers, maybe 4 if Folty works out but he's young and developing I wouldn't expect it. Our backend is decent, but basically 1/4 of the way through the season,no one in the backend has stepped up. I didn't expect anyone to replace Kimbrel, but I hoped someone could replace Walden or Carpenter and that may not happen. THouhg Grilli has put up very nice peripherals and should be in that grouping.

I don't get why people are optimistic aside from it's early in the season and our division isn't that great. But it wasn't great last year either and we missed the wild card with a far superior team. And it isn't like we upgraded at manager. WE need a ton of luck to get into the playoffs.

I expect us to be sellers at the deadline. Douchebag, probably 2 of our 3 Johnsons will be gone, and I'm sure plenty of others will be on the block. Sucky play liekly eliminates Gomes and Callaspo as trade options.

Sustain this, Zito.

 

[clvclv]

What if we are 10 games above .500 at the trade deadline? Do we still look to flip Grilli, Joe Johnson, AJ? Or do we on a very selective basis and without giving up anyone who might be a key part of the future look to upgrade in a couple spots? We do appear to have some cash to play with after the Kimbrel trade.

Absolutely - if we can get value. For me anyway.

I forget which thread it was in, but somebody mentioned the level of prospect return they felt we could get for those guys and others. Given the minimal commitment (and lack of other options at the back-end), I would argue for holding onto Grilli until such time that someone offers someone that would be a lock to crack our current Top 10 - even if that's sometime NEXT season when his contract is even more club-favorable.

An offer for any other veteran on a one-year deal that nets you someone that would crack our Top 25-30 list should be accepted immediately IMO. One of the prevailing goals when the reset button was pushed was to rebuild quality depth in our system, and one way to do that is to acquire enough talent to make promotions very hard to come by without a player really separating himself from the others.

 

[Runnin]

In our last 5 series, we are 3-2.

 

[dak]

This team will win 83-87 games. If its the high end they will win the 2nd NL Wild Card.

There's definitely an irrational side of me that is trying to keep hope alive for a scenario like this, but there's honestly nothing I've seen that would lead me to change my prediction of 75 wins. I still think we're in a position to be competitive in 2016 (which is earlier than many think), but this current team just has too many weaknesses to overlook. I'm gonna root like hell for them as long as we can hang around 0.500, but I won't be devastated if we end up losing steam and selling at the trade deadline.

 

[jpx7]

I'm basically interested in watching everyone over 30 play really well and then be traded in June or July. I think I'd actually be pretty damn disappointed, at this point, if the Braves were in any sort of contentious position midsummer and therefore failed to find future assets for their more agèd performers—though, if they're playing well and they flip the Jim and Kelly Johnsons of the roster, I'll be doubly delighted.

 

[Julio3000]

I'm basically interested in watching everyone over 30 play really well and then be traded in June or July. I think I'd actually be pretty damn disappointed, at this point, if the Braves were in any sort of contentious position midsummer and therefore failed to find future assets for their more agèd performers—though, if they're playing well and they flip the Jim and Kelly Johnsons of the roster, I'll be doubly delighted.

So what we're looking for is tanking, just with maturity and veteran leadership.

 

[The Tariff King]

So what we're looking for is tanking, just with maturity and veteran leadership.

We're hoping that the young guys drain and absorb the grit maturity and leadership out of the veterans before they get sent off. Think of it like Goku asking for energy for the spirit bomb.

 

[clvclv]

We're hoping that the young guys drain and absorb the grit maturity and leadership out of the veterans before they get sent off. Think of it like Goku asking for energy for the spirit bomb.

No idea who Goku is, and haven't dropped a "spirit bomb" in quite awhile since I haven't had a good drunk lately, but that pretty much sums it up for me.

 

[ChapelHillMatt]

I just wish we had Heyward and his 240 avg, then we would have a chance!

 

[cajunrevenge]

I LOVE Gomez, but personally don't want ANY part of being in the bidding war he's going to generate when the Brewers make him available. He's a free-agent following next season and will command a Justin Upton level salary, PLUS would cost us at least two of Wisler/Banuelos/Fried/Peraza/Albies/Mallex Smith.

I'm fine with paying him that much, but would just wait until after next season when you just have to give up the money.

I would give up Fried and Banuelos in a heart beat for Gomez. I wouldnt re-sign Gomez though, I'll take 2 years in the prime of his career and a first round draft pick over signing him to a ridiculous contract.

Any improvement from Teheran will be countered in game by Shelby Miller falling back to his peripherals. .183 BABIP as a ground ball pitcher is not sustainable. That will rise sharply and when it does his ERA will come with it. Still he's pitching very well, not trying to discount that, but he's got basically the same FIP and xFIP that Wood has but his ERA is 2 and a half runs lower.

Them the what happens when Kelly JOohnson comes back to earth, Nick Markakis's BABIP returns to career norms, and tons of other things that could go wrong.

The Braves need essentially a lot of guys to over achieve and few guys to underachieve. I dont' like betting on those odds. We're devoid of a lot of good players. Let's say Julio, Wood, Miller, Freeman, and Simmons are our good-great players. Where are we after that? Who else can you say we should be able to ocunt on that guy? Last year we had Jason, Justin, Freddie, Wood, Julio, Kimbrel, Simmons, and Gattis.

Seriously there's not much you should be optimistic about. Our catcher of the future has performed way worse than expected, we don't have a real CF solution (though Maybin has performed better) Alberto Callaspo and Johnny Gomes are the turds we knew they'd be, Our bright spots are Simmons is hitting like he did in 2013, and Freddie is still Freddie, and Jace has been solid. He's not been a star by any means. Last year we had 3 position players with an fWAR over 4 and 4 incredibly reliable pitchers and a lights out back end of the bullpen. Assume Julio gets back to where we want him to be. I think we have 3 reliable pitchers, maybe 4 if Folty works out but he's young and developing I wouldn't expect it. Our backend is decent, but basically 1/4 of the way through the season,no one in the backend has stepped up. I didn't expect anyone to replace Kimbrel, but I hoped someone could replace Walden or Carpenter and that may not happen. THouhg Grilli has put up very nice peripherals and should be in that grouping.

I don't get why people are optimistic aside from it's early in the season and our division isn't that great. But it wasn't great last year either and we missed the wild card with a far superior team. And it isn't like we upgraded at manager. WE need a ton of luck to get into the playoffs.

I expect us to be sellers at the deadline. Douchebag, probably 2 of our 3 Johnsons will be gone, and I'm sure plenty of others will be on the block. Sucky play liekly eliminates Gomes and Callaspo as trade options.

I will take Miller and Teheran both pitching like 3.00 ERA pitcher than Miller at 1.50 ERA and Teheran at 4.50. Its not just the ERA its the innings too. The bullpen is a clear weakness beyond Grill Cheese, Johnson and Avilan so we need starters going deep into games. Any buying of course would include another reliable reliever like Will Smith if we went after Gomez.

For the offense I think we have a lot of options other than at catcher that we can play the hot hand to keep the offense moving. I agree that the offense may not keep up its good work but thats why I am proposing adding someone like Carlos Gomez. Trade for Gomez/Will Smith, Gomez plays CF, Maybin plays either of the corner outfield spots, and call up Peraza to play 2B moving Peterson to 3B and all of a sudden we have a very respectable lineup. Maybe we dont get the second wild card but we should atleast be in the hunt through the end of the season. I do think its important to give the casual fans something to root for so they dont lose interest. Then in 2016 we use the significant money available to sign a big free agent starter to supplement the rotation and fix the bullpen. Maybe sign a catcher since Bethancourt cant hit. We could theoretically sign Price and Weiters in the offseason and still have 20 million in payroll left to spend even after trading for Gomez. That would make us a very dangerous team.

 

[clvclv]

I would give up Fried and Banuelos in a heart beat for Gomez. I wouldnt re-sign Gomez though, I'll take 2 years in the prime of his career and a first round draft pick over signing him to a ridiculous contract.

Why on earth would you trade that type of potential for a player you WON'T HAVE control over when the new park opens if you aren't going to extend him???

If you were going to do that, you should have never traded Heyward or Upton to begin with.

 

[cajunrevenge]

Fried and Banuelos is less than we got for Heywood or Upton. Personally I am not high on either of them. I think both are more likely to be back end of the rotation starters than top/mid rotation starters. With the injury attrition of pitchers both could amount to nothing. I think you need to strike while the irons hot, what happens in 2017 if both Teheran/Wood go down with TJ surgery. Ok, lets wait another 5 years for the sun and moon to align before trying to win anything. If the Braves commit to 2016 I think we could field a world series contender.

 

[JohnAdcox]

Absolutely - if we can get value. For me anyway.

I forget which thread it was in, but somebody mentioned the level of prospect return they felt we could get for those guys and others. Given the minimal commitment (and lack of other options at the back-end), I would argue for holding onto Grilli until such time that someone offers someone that would be a lock to crack our current Top 10 - even if that's sometime NEXT season when his contract is even more club-favorable.

An offer for any other veteran on a one-year deal that nets you someone that would crack our Top 25-30 list should be accepted immediately IMO. One of the prevailing goals when the reset button was pushed was to rebuild quality depth in our system, and one way to do that is to acquire enough talent to make promotions very hard to come by without a player really separating himself from the others.

Well said, mate.