GDT: 5/31, Braves @ Giants; Day Off For Freeman

weso1 said:
I respect thethe's initial question. I get where he was coming from and I've enjoyed the debate. It's been an interesting discussion when you put your biases aside. I mean in a perfect world Upton for Peterson is a no brainer. But considering the Braves position now... it's an interesting discussion if you include all the externalities.
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I think you mean to say in a vacuum. And no it doesn't make sense. Would you trade Williams Perez for David Price? I mean if you're getting Price of course you do. But no one trades top talent for one prospect who may be worth move over the entirety of their rookie contract. It's moronic to discuss. What if instead of Miller and Jenkins, we traded Heyward for Trevor Rosenthal, very good chance he could be worth more than Heyward's 1 season over his contract. It's a moronic exercise that really doesn't discuss anything of any importance.
 
Oh so you are not looking to win trades from an overall value perspective. interesting....
 
zitothebrave said:
I think you mean to say in a vacuum. And no it doesn't make sense. Would you trade Williams Perez for David Price? I mean if you're getting Price of course you do. But no one trades top talent for one prospect who may be worth move over the entirety of their rookie contract. It's moronic to discuss. What if instead of Miller and Jenkins, we traded Heyward for Trevor Rosenthal, very good chance he could be worth more than Heyward's 1 season over his contract. It's a moronic exercise that really doesn't discuss anything of any importance.
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No, I think consideration in a complete vacuum is exactly my point. Upton for one year vs. Peterson for 5 or whatever the hell you want to do with those years is the exact vacuum I'm talking about. Look, you have to rationalize Upton in the the sense that well if you just extend him for those year and then he's awesome then great you are the greatest gm of all time, but that's outside the vacuum. Truth be told Upton's value is more likely to tank than not. He's a great offensive player but if you are John Hart are you sitting at the table telling yourself, if I give this guy 125 mil he's gauranteed to deliver in 2017?
 
weso1 said:
No, I think consideration in a complete vacuum is exactly my point. Upton for one year vs. Peterson for 5 or whatever the hell you want to do with those years is the exact vacuum I'm talking about. Look, you have to rationalize Upton in the the sense that well if you just extend him for those year and then he's awesome then great you are the greatest gm of all time, but that's outside the vacuum. Truth be told Upton's value is more likely to tank than not. He's a great offensive player but if you are John Hart are you sitting at the table telling yourself, if I give this guy 125 mil he's gauranteed to deliver in 2017?
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When you trade Justin you're not just trading him for 1 year, you're trading the draft pick you get if he leaves. The potential seats he adds if we were leading the division, so on so forth. Baseball isn't in a vacuum when it comes to trades. Value in trades are more involved.
 
zitothebrave said:
When you trade Justin you're not just trading him for 1 year, you're trading the draft pick you get if he leaves. The potential seats he adds if we were leading the division, so on so forth. Baseball isn't in a vacuum when it comes to trades. Value in trades are more involved.
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Ok and what about the seats you lose in the other 5 years because Upton may walk for a huge deal? Values in trades like you said have more involved than just the next season.
 
zitothebrave said:
When you trade Justin you're not just trading him for 1 year, you're trading the draft pick you get if he leaves. The potential seats he adds if we were leading the division, so on so forth. Baseball isn't in a vacuum when it comes to trades. Value in trades are more involved.
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The potential draft pick is worth bull****. The whole reason the Braves got all these draft picks is the assumption that one in 8 or whatever works out. Truth be told that draft picks are worth at best 3 mil and that's me being kind. Jace Peterson is already worth that.
 
weso1 said:
The potential draft pick is worth bull****. The whole reason the Braves got all these draft picks is the assumption that one in 8 or whatever works out. Truth be told that draft picks are worth at best 3 mil and that's me being kind. Jace Peterson is already worth that.
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SOme insane percentage of players were once draft picks. Angels got Trout with the pick they got from Teixeira leaving. Obviously old system.
 
thethe said:
Ok and what about the seats you lose in the other 5 years because Upton may walk for a huge deal? Values in trades like you said have more involved than just the next season.
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And what are the odds that Jace Peterson at 2 fWAR is adding butts to the seat? What's PEterson's value over Peraza and Rio Ruiz?
 
I doubt that any big league GM with aspirations to contend would take 5 years of a adequate-to-slightly-above-average 2B over one year of a top-echelon power-hitting LF. There's a reasonable chance that the AAV of Upton's next contract is more than JP earns in his big-league career.

You like him. I like him. But it's way easier to replace Jace Peterson in the lineup than to find a beast righty slugger. Hence the valuation.

And, Weso, I think there's a better chance that Justin Upton is a stud in 2017 than that Jace becomes anything more than he is right now—a nice complementary piece.
 
zitothebrave said:
And what are the odds that Jace Peterson at 2 fWAR is adding butts to the seat? What's PEterson's value over Peraza and Rio Ruiz?
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Winning puts Butts in the seats above all else. Very few players are needle movers to yhe fans and Justin was not one of them.
 
zitothebrave said:
SOme insane percentage of players were once draft picks. Angels got Trout with the pick they got from Teixeira leaving. Obviously old system.
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That's a bunch of bull**** and you know it Zito. I mean we aint finding a player close to the value of Trout in one of these picks. Best case scenario is that why find Jace Peterson. You going to sit here and tell me you wouldn't take Jace as the realistic best player in our current draft assuming a 3 WAR for 4 more years?
 
thethe said:
Winning puts Butts in the seats above all else. Very few players are needle movers to yhe fans and Justin was not one of them.
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You didn't answer the last part. We've already proven finding a 2 WAR 2B is about a 50/50 shot if they're healthy. Justin putting us in a winning position moves the needle. I agree Jason was better about putting butts in the seats.
 
weso1 said:
That's a bunch of bull**** and you know it Zito. I mean we aint finding a player close to the value of Trout in one of these picks. Best case scenario is that why find Jace Peterson. You going to sit here and tell me you wouldn't take Jace as the realistic best player in our current draft assuming a 3 WAR for 4 more years?
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I do'nt know what that alst sentence means?
 
zitothebrave said:
You didn't answer the last part. We've already proven finding a 2 WAR 2B is about a 50/50 shot if they're healthy. Justin putting us in a winning position moves the needle. I agree Jason was better about putting butts in the seats.
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And Jack helps us win games for the following five years.

Also, Jace may end up being a 3 WAR player.
 
Julio3000 said:
I doubt that any big league GM with aspirations to contend would take 5 years of a adequate-to-slightly-above-average 2B over one year of a top-echelon power-hitting LF. There's a reasonable chance that the AAV of Upton's next contract is more than JP earns in his big-league career.

You like him. I like him. But it's way easier to replace Jace Peterson in the lineup than to find a beast righty slugger. Hence the valuation.

And, Weso, I think there's a better chance that Justin Upton is a stud in 2017 than that Jace becomes anything more than he is right now—a nice complementary piece.
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But, you have to consider the consequences of your bet. If you are wrong about Upton then you have to trade a guy like Kimbrel to get him off the books. If you are wrong about Peterson then you have to trade my butt hair. Point being... well, you get it.
 
zitothebrave said:
If he's playing. What if he's replaced by Peraza and Ruiz and produces 0 WAR?
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Jace is only getting replaced if he isn't effective. This is his job to lose right now.

You are putting g guys over him that haven't even had a major league AB.
 
thethe said:
Jace is only getting replaced if he isn't effective. This is his job to lose right now.

You are putting g guys over him that haven't even had a major league AB.
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90 wRC+ is highly replaceable. Especially with the stolen bases Peraza would add.
 
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