TOP 30 PROSPECTS: New Year's Eve Edition

rico43

<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
DECEMBER 30th UPDATE: Late and off-season pickups Demeritte, Scivicque, Jackson added to the Top 30. Leaving the pitchers on the see-saw (Hursh, Blair) off this list. And to me, Swanson is not a prospect -- he's our shortstop!

1. OZHAINO ALBIES (5-9, 155) SS His stateside debut has been everything anyone would have hoped. Multi-hit games, stolen bases and a defensive flair has put him on everyone's Watch List. His hot streak hints at a move upward, supposedly delayed only slightly by his season-ending injury. We can't wait to see him in person.

2. KOLBY ALLARD (6-2, 175) LHP His arm is as much an object of wonder but his back was concern after needing a second procedure. But that's old news. He dominated what live hitting he faced in 2015 and worked up to 90 pitches most of his late-season outings. The Braves are done nursemaiding him; he won eight of his last nine decisions (five straight at Rome) and was consistently allowed to throw 90 or more pitches.

3. IAN ANDERSON (6-3, 170) RHP After seeing so many quirkly deliveries (i.e., Alec Wood and Gant), it's almost reassuring that Anderson's textbook style is part of his allure. Tall and projectable with the ability to add strength, Anderson throws in the 91-95 mph range, is generally around the strike zone and attacks hitters. His limited debut reflected that with 36 strikeouts, 33 hits allowed and 12 walks in 40 innings.

4. KEVIN MAITAN (6-2, 175) SS The switch-hitter will make his much anticipated debut sometime, somewhere this season and the Braves' decision as to where actually has people on edge. The expectation is that the Gulf Coast League team will see him first, allowing his to begin his stateside experience without a crush of fans or media. A hot start might allow him to jump Danville and wind up in Rome -- in which case this writer will have a road trip in August.

5. RONALD ACUNA (6-0, 180) OF Another of the Braves' 18-year-old phenoms, he earned the bump up to Danville and then improved his numbers across the board. Showed signs of developing into five-tool prospect (four homers, 16 stolen bases). Earned full-season shot and did not disappoint before being shelved by thumb injury. Was a winter league all-star in Australia.

6. MAX FRIED (6-4, 185) LHP By not being seen at all in 2015 has actually worked in the big lefty's favor. Not rushed through the his TJ recovery, was ready to go for 2016 season, but it took some time for the lights to come on, even with Rome his first stop, due to his long recovery period. But the signs are there: 6.23 ERA in May, 4-1, 1.29 in June. Had a brief bout with a dead arm in August but struck out 10 in his final two outings -- the latter only a 4.2 inning appearance.

7. DUSTIN PETERSON (6-2, 180) INF The breakout hitting prospect the first half of 2016. Considered more of a throw-in to Upton I, Peterson was leading the Carolina League in hitting last year when the Carolina bus crash put him on the DL. Hit only .229 the second half of the season, but at age 20, he was still one of the youngest players in the Carolina League and is likewise at Mississippi. Driving in over 40 runs the first half, became the team's biggest offensive threat after a .337 June.

8. SEAN NEWCOMB (6-5, 245) LHP Acquired at age 22, this man overnight became a Braves' top prospect, according to no less than John Manuel of BBA. Angels first round pick in 2014 ($2.5 million signing bonus), got the job done in Double-A last year, but is repeating that level for the Braves and found the going tough. Lack of command concerns them, and remains his biggest obstacle. Has 95-plus fastball, but can mix up strong secondary pitches as well. Even though he fought his control, he did not lose a game after July 13 (4-0).

9. A.J. MINTER (6-0, 205) LHP We eagerly awaited the former Texas A&M ace's return to post-TJ health, and he has merely been the fastest rising reliever in the organization. Drafted in the second round of 2015 despite his surgery, Minter's career stats as of August 1st were stunning: 21 games, 25 innings, ONE earned run allowed, 34 strikeouts, six walks. Oh, and THREE total hits allowed.

10. AUSTIN RILEY (6-2, 230) 3B The biggest bat drafted in 2015, an 0-for-20 start was quickly left behind; for the rest of 2015, he hit .335 with 12 homers. A gun for an arm made him a pitching candidate for some teams. But Riley the rarest commodity in the system; a power bat. Struck out way too much early in 2016 but began finding his home run swing in July and hit nine in August!

11. TRAVIS DEMERITTE (6-0, 180) 2B Another steal, acquired for a pair of reclamation projects. If the Georgia native can somehow find away to cut down on his prolific strikeout totals, the sky is the limit for him. As is, he has shown power traits that exist nowhere else in the Braves system. At age 21, it would seem the Braves ideally have their future infield in hand, but Demeritte will be given looks all over the field. Reports are he is so happy to be in Braves system, he'll play anywhere they ask. Did OK in AFL as replacement for Albies.

12. JOEY WENTZ (6-5, 210) LHP Start off with his 0.00 ERA his senior high of high school. A huge get with the 40th pick, a brief bout with a "dead arm" scared enough scouts to drop him from the top 10-15 picks. After getting on a throwing program and nursing his arm back to health he has operated at 90-95 mph this spring. There could be more velocity to come from his projectable frame. He was also unscored over his first four pro appearances (12 innings), not giving up a run until he was promoted to Danville -- and then it was six in 2.2 innings! His only win came thanks to five shutout innings in his penultimate appearance.

13. MIKE SOROKA (6-4, 195) RHP The latter part of the season, the Braves' second first-round pick of last year generated more buzz than any of the "top" picks. Decent start to his pro career (2.77 ERA in his first 26 innings), earning postseason all-star status despite 0-2 record. Hard luck followed him early in 2016 -- but then the scales balanced out and he won seven straight, including his last six starts. Threw over 100 pro innings before allowing a homer. Finally spelled his name right!

14. DERIAN CRUZ (6-1, 177) SS (Review from BBA) Arguably the most dynamic athlete of any Latin American signing last year, the switch-hitter, 19, is oozing with quick-twitch athleticism, running the 60-yard dash in 6.4 seconds and going home to first from the left side in 4.1 seconds. He has a quick first step, a gliding gait and should be a prolific basestealer. Hit .406 after his first week of play and took a .309 average from the GCL to Danville, where pitchers caught up to him somewhat.

15. ALEX JACKSON (6-2, 215) C-OF. Upside improves considerably if he's moved back to catcher, which he yet to play as a pro. Seattle's No.1 pick in 2014 (6th overall), cashing a check for a cool $4.2 million. John Hart called him the best prep power prospect coming out of that draft, but has yet to deliver on that promise. Strikes out a ton, but was young for his league and will be only 21 in 2017. Sometimes a change of scenery is all a kid like this needs. That, and a change of position?

16. TOUKIE TOUSSANT (6-3, 185) RHP For his 19th birthday, he was dealt to the Braves. The signs are here as well in 2016: 9.19 ERA in April, 4.61 in May, 1.06 in June. Toussaint quite possibly has the best fastball-breaking ball combination in the system. His curveball is of the knee-buckling variety, a virtually unhittable secondary offering that's been equally difficult for catchers to corral. He'll sit in the 92-94 mph range and has shown the ability to reach back for mid-90s (or more) heat, on occasion. Toussaint's changeup has improved dramatically.

17. RIO RUIZ (6-2, 215) 3B He has given his skeptics what they needed to see this year in promotion to AAA. His plate discipline was encouraging as he drew 63 walks (to 94 strikeouts). Needed a strong finish last year to get his average to .233, but he was able to eliminate the routine grounders he hit a million of early. Hit .310 in April, slumping to .198 in May, but hit better (.333) in June. Got his feet went in Atlanta and picked up his first MLB hit.

18. KYLE MULLER (6-6, 225) LHP A beast who struck out a national high school record 24 straight batters over two starts and once recorded 36 consecutive outs on strikeouts. His delivery is clean and his arm works well with little effort. Whle there are some concerns about how well he can maintain velocity throwing every fifth day, he threw harder as a pro. While he'd be a legitimate prospect as a first baseman/outfielder with well-above-average righthanded power (he hits righthanded but throws lefthanded), the choice to allow him to pitch has worked just fine: his debut line was 1-0, 0.98 with 38 strikeouts, 12 walks in 28 innings. He allowed only 14 hits in that span.

19. LUCAS HERBERT (6-1, 195) C Considered the most polished defensive catcher in the '15 draft, high school or college, Herbert began his pro career with a home run and his first full season bypassed the rookie leagues. If his offense makes only marginal gains each year, he could be on the doorstep of the majors within three seasons. Injured (menescus) in just his third pro game, wiped out 2015. Pushed to full-season Rome at age 19, but spent more time on the DL than anyone would have wanted.

20. CRISTIAN PACHE (6-2, 185) OF Each move has amped up the excitement about this 18-year-old. After debuting with a .283 average in the GCL (by passing the DSL), he moved to Danville and whacked the ball at a .343 clip his final 17 games to finish with a .333 average at his second stop. Stolen 11 bases and has an impressive nine outfield assists from CF in his debut season.

21. LUCAS SIMS (6-2, 225) RHP The first half of 2015 seemed to indicate backwards step, and his the ineffective start followed by an bus wreck injury (hip) raised questions, but his finish (4-0, 0.88 ERA over his final five starts) led to a superb Arizona Fall League. Proved he can still be considered a possible No. 1 starter. Still had growing pains in AAA, but could well dominate AA the rest of 2016.

22. KADE SCIVICQUE (6-0, 225) C Braves fans have begn to understand why their front office was so excited to grab this guy in the final weeks of the season. Active behind the plate, he allowed only four passed balls all season while throwing out 29 baserunners (26 percent). He bat also came to life in AFL.

23. RANDY VENTURA (5-9, 165) OF Opponents had to make a mid-course adjustment on this kid's sensational debut. Stealing five bases in his third professional game, he went on to lead the DSL in steals (55 in 58 games). After about 24 games, he started showing some gap power to go with his knack of hitting singles at a .400 clip and had more walks than strikeouts. He also racked up an impressive 14 assists in the outfield. But once stateside in 2016, his profile changed: his assists dropped from 14 to one but his errors dropped from 11 to zero. Offensively, he fell nearly 30 points and struck out at a noticably higher clip, but his .286 was more productive even from the top of the batting order.

24. PATRICK WEIGEL (6-6, 220) RHP The least heralded of the Braves' heralded stable of arms, the University of Houston product has produced since the Braves drafted him in the seventh round in 2015. After getting his feet wet at Danville, he made it quickly apparent that lessons were learned as he began the year at Rome despite never having won a professional game. Hit his stride in May (3-0, 1.44) and went on to be named the Braves' Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2016 with a line of 11-6, 2.47 with 152 strikeouts in 150 innings worked. Since he's already 22, he needs to be in Mississippi no later than Opening Day of 2017.

25. STEVE JANAS (6-5, 200) RHP It's rare that a pitcher can miss more than a month without missing a beat, but this big, strong righty -- a Kennesaw State product -- was at his professional peak (just missing a perfect game) when multiple injuries beset him. He already nursing an injury when he was of those hurt in the Carolina bus crash. He went on the DL, healed for even long weeks, but returned strong and soon moved to finish the 2015 season at Class AA Mississippi, leaving behind an 0.49 ERA in Carolina and a 5-0 record. Moved to the bullpen for 2016, his stay in Double-A was brief as he posted a 1.98 ERA. Excellent chance to stick in Atlanta this year.

26. DREW HARRINGTON (6-2, 225) LHP Willing to admit that I might be alone on an island about the ACC Pitcher of the Year, drafted in the third round by the Braves this past June. His heavy college workload meant a move (perhaps temporary) to the bulllpen and a light inital pro workload (nine games, 15 innings at Danville, bypassing the GCL). He did not allow a run until his fifth appearance and took a 1-0, 2.45 line into the offseason.

27. BRAULIO VASQUEZ (6-0, 170) SS Be among the first to climb aboard this switch-hitter's bandwagon. Signed in July of 2016, the 17-year-old Dominican made his DSL pro debut thrilling. He hit .353 in his first 20 pro games with seven SBs and at one stage his six multi-hit games in his last 10. He split his time at second and short but made lot of errors in both. Should see the GCL in 2017.

28. ANFERNEE SEYMOUR (5-11, 185) SS-CF Their latest steal/pickup might supplant Mallex as the fastest man in the organization. A switch-hitter moved from CF to short by the Marlins, his arm can handle the latter. The question is if his battle is more than middling Class A stick. Hitting .252 at the time of his trade, but had 118 strikeouts in 125 games with zero power. His season splits were all over the place, hitting .333 one month and .202 the next. Braves figure to explore moving him back to center.

29. RICARDO SANCHEZ (5-11, 170) LHP Remembering he's still 19 (20 in April), his 11-strikeout, one-hit showing the first of July reminds us of his upside. The Angels' No. 3 prospect before his trade (for Kyle Kubitza, already returned to the Braves!), his international experience in his native Venezuela rated as one of the top international pitching prospects when signed in July of 2013. He had an excellent 2.82 ERA over the final three months for the champion R-Braves, and his biggest needs, as is the case for most pitchers is age, are polishing his secondary pitches.

30. BRAXTON DAVIDSON (6-2, 230) OF The Braves might be about to lose patience with Davidson, who turned 20 on June 18. Moved up to Advanced A in 2016, but power was MIA until midseason. Walks way down, strikeouts still way up. Still has time (keep telling yourself that).

31. ISRANEL WILSON (6-3, 180) OF Kinda hard to ignore the fact that he won the GCL home run title at the age of 17. He made too many errors in the outfield (eight) and struck out a bunch, but he also has a great arm and delivered what the Braves have in such short supply: long home runs. Being in Danville this year will provide a better idea of his potential.

HONORABLE MENTION: Mel Rojas Jr., Brett Cumberland, Abraham Gutierrez, Akeel Morris, Ramon Osuna, Leudys Baez, Juan Yepez, Raysheandall Michel, Yunior Severino, Michael Mader, Ricardo Rodriguez, Brad Roney, Kyle Kinman, Johan Camargo, Joey Meneses, Luke Jackson, Armando Rivero, Wes Parsons, Paco Rodriguez.
 
I keep hearing negative stuff on Mallex Smith's defense. Is his route running to the ball as bad as it's made out to be?
 
It's hard to argue against anyone on that list, but I think Albies is the true blue chipper in that group. I would have him at 1.
 
It's hard to argue against anyone on that list, but I think Albies is the true blue chipper in that group. I would have him at 1.

He's just so young. Hard to put a guy #1 when he isn't in the high minors, and when Wisler is dominating there.
 
FYI

This thread is an interrupted work in progress. No one is ranked until I put a number by their name, and I don't expect to have another OFFICIAL list until after the draft signings are mostly wrapped up.
 
I keep hearing negative stuff on Mallex Smith's defense. Is his route running to the ball as bad as it's made out to be?

I was under the exact opposite impression. I thought he was terrific defensively, but lacked elite arm strength.
 
we have so many high avg low slugging guys.

Rio Ruiz not on the list is an issue.

Davidson is our only power option and he's many years away and likely is a defensive liability.

I hope we get some pop in this draft.

I think this list is a little high on ManBan. The non-Braves fans I've read about him are projecting 5th starter type guy. Hope this poster is correct.
 
we have so many high avg low slugging guys.

Rio Ruiz not on the list is an issue.

Davidson is our only power option and he's many years away and likely is a defensive liability.

I hope we get some pop in this draft.

I think this list is a little high on ManBan. The non-Braves fans I've read about him are projecting 5th starter type guy. Hope this poster is correct.

THIS IS NOT THE LIST. THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS I HAD TROUBLE SAVING. WILL NOT BE A LIST UNTIL THERE ARE NUMBERS BESIDE THE NAMES.
 
Putting the final touches on my official July Top 30 (see above). Do I have Allard and Toussant in about the right places?
 
Rico, thanks a ton for doing this. I love reading your insight on our prospects, so thanks again and keep up the great work!
 
Is Smith that good on D? I thought I read there were concerns about his routes and his arm. I like that he bunt is in his aresenal. Do you know if he has the push bunt toward 2B or if it's all down the line stuff?

Sad to see only one power prospect and he's at 1B. I guess D Peterson has a shot.

Really need some help in the corner OF and 3B...its just not there.
 
I think cautious optimism is the key to looking at Mallex Smith. His K rate is alarming, but he does walk a lot. If he walks around 10% of the time and keeps his Ks under 25% of the time he should be an effective major league player. If he keeps it under 20 he should be a good major league player, As that's essentially what Michael Bourn was and we know how good he can be.

When it comes to assessing Peraza and Smith, I think it comes down to a few things. First, how important is safety? Peraza is a much safer prospect because of his lower K rate and BABIP driven players like Smith and Peraza usually fair better when they don't K as much, and then position. Smith is a CF, Peraza is a SS. Now I know the Braves have moved him to 2B, and maybe to 3B, and maybe to CF, but when it comes down to it, Peraza's value as a prospect is SS.

Overall I take Peraza. With all the info he's still my top prospect. Smith has climbed the board mightly though. And show be a top 3 prospect for sure going into next year assuming he keeps this up.

And I entirely disagree with your ranking on Jenkins. He's a bigger concern to me now than ever before. And I get the caution in analyzing him based on this year cause of his injury past, but I have to look at it. He has a horrible set of peripherals. 4.0 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9. When he gets to the show, those numbers likely go even worse. I hope he turns it around. I really do. If he doesn't he'll be totally worthless to the big league team. Even pathetic Jo-Jo Reyes could strike out 7 per nine in the minors. This concerns me because it leads me to wonder if Jenkins' stuff is really hittable. For me if he finishes this year as is, I'm getting rid of him this offseason in some kind of trade. I don't know what but I wouldn't let him hit the majors if he can't walk less than 3 per 9 or K more than 7 per 9
 
I disagree about Peraza. If he is not used at SS his value goes down drastically. He doesn't walk, and he doesn't hit for any power...at all. A guy with an offensive line of .300/.320/.370 (his current AAA line with the SLG inflated by a couple fluky HRs) isn't going to warrant a spot in the lineup of a championship level team unless he is also providing average defense at SS or CF.

BP pretty much said the same thing in a blurb about Peraza today:

"Jose Peraza, 2B, Braves (Gwinnett, AAA): 2-5, R, 2B. If Anderson has limited power, then Peraza has none. The Braves’ converted shortstop (due to organizational need, not lack of ability) doesn’t even hit for gap power the way Anderson does, leaving all of the pressure on him to hit well over .300 to be an effective offensive player. He offers much more than that as an up-the-middle defender with elite-level speed, but the bat will have to play to its absolute ceiling in order to justify everyday playing time."

I would take Smith and his ability to walk over Peraza, without question. It is my opinion that either Simmons or Peraza must be playing SS in Atlanta, with the other traded away.
 
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