¿Qué decisión tomar con respecto a Peráza?

GovClintonTyree

GovClintonTyree

<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Jose is a nice player. SS is his highest and best use. He's been a .300 hitter who makes good contact with elite base stealing skills at the minor league level for a number of years. He's shown a lot of positional versatility, moving to 2B competently then to CF.

On the other hand, he has no power, doesn't walk and, in a remarkable turn of events, Atlanta has no place to put him. Simmons isn't going anywhere. Peterson is in the process of solidifying his hold on 2B, hits and does walk and (eyeball opinion, and I think the metrics agree) offers elite defense. No, Peterson long term is not a done deal- yet- but you can see the organization's thinking by looking at how they've started using Peraza in CF.

Meanwhile, Mallex Smith in CF in MS does everything Peraza does, just way better. Plus a little power and a lot of walks. In the meantime, Maybin is playing at a near-all star level in Atlanta, and that's already the second positional shift for Peraza. I suppose he could play a decent 3B, but we're better off filling our power needs there.

I think it's reached the point where the best thing we can do - for him, and for ourselves, with the bullpen issues we have - is to deal Peraza for a couple of high-end (non dumpster-diving) ML-ready cost controlled relievers to ably fill a couple holes. Then he can go .280/.300/.320 with 40 bags and play SS for somebody else.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Jose is a nice player. SS is his highest and best use. He's been a .300 hitter who makes good contact with elite base stealing skills at the minor league level for a number of years. He's shown a lot of positional versatility, moving to 2B competently then to CF.

On the other hand, he has no power, doesn't walk and, in a remarkable turn of events, Atlanta has no place to put him. Simmons isn't going anywhere. Peterson is in the process of solidifying his hold on 2B, hits and does walk and (eyeball opinion, and I think the metrics agree) offers elite defense. No, Peterson long term is not a done deal- yet- but you can see the organization's thinking by looking at how they've started using Peraza in CF.

Meanwhile, Mallex Smith in CF in MS does everything Peraza does, just way better. Plus a little power and a lot of walks. In the meantime, Maybin is playing at a near-all star level in Atlanta, and that's already the second positional shift for Peraza. I suppose he could play a decent 3B, but we're better off filling our power needs there.

I think it's reached the point where the best thing we can do - for him, and for ourselves, with the bullpen issues we have - is to deal Peraza for a couple of high-end (non dumpster-diving) ML-ready cost controlled relievers to ably fill a couple holes. Then he can go .280/.300/.320 with 40 bags and play SS for somebody else.
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I am okay with trading him in the right deal... but not for MLB Relievers. That would not be the kind of value we should get for him.
 
Tapate50 said:
The pen won't be a long term problem here. Not for shipping our best prospect off for arms for Fredi's all you can eat buffet in the bullpen.
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MLB ready. I'm thinking like Trevor Rosenthal at AAA. Not Chasen Shreve and David Carpenter.

nsacpi, what are the MLEs for "our best prospect?"
 
There are a couple considerations in favor of Peraza over some of the other players mentioned.

One is age. He is 21 having success in AAA. Mallex Smith is 22 having success in AA. Jace Peterson is 25 andhaving success in the majors.

Age by level is one of the better predictors of a players ultimate success in the majors. Not saying it is the only factor. But it is something left out of the opening post.

Another thing in Peraza's favor is strikeout rate. Currently at AAA his stands at 8.8%. Smith is at 17.1% in AA. Peterson is at 16.4%. Both walk rate and strikeout rate matter. The former favors the other two players, but the strikeout rate favors Peraza.

Peraza is a better base stealer than Peterson (successful in 16 out of 18 attempts this year).

He is also more positionally versatile than Smith.

I think track record (pedigree) also favors Peraza. Smith and Peterson to some extent are out-performing what their past performances would suggest and the sample this year remains small. Peraza on the other hand had a tremendous season in 2014 and came in as a consensus Top 100 prospect.

If given the choice of one of the three I would take Peraza. Of course, as with any player I'm open to trading him for the right return.

There is one factual argument in the opening post I would take exception to. That is the contention that Smith has more power. Peraza has an ISO of .073 this year. Smith (older and a level lower) has an ISO of .067. They both have 2 home runs.

One last point. I would be fine with keeping all three. Injuries, slumps, etc. happen. A little depth never hurts. If all three develop and Albies fulfills his promise, then maybe we have a logjam. But Albies is in low A and we should be patient in letting things unfold.
 
weso1 said:
I wouldn't trade Peraza unless it's centered around a player like Lucroy.
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If Peraza, Sims, and a low-level arm nets you Lucroy, I could get on board with that.

Maybe the Padres would view Jose as a potential answer at SS. Possibly a prospect challenge trade of Peraza for Rymer Liriano straight-up.
 
I understand that Peraza may be blocked if the organization believes in Peterson, and I would be ok with listening to offers for him. But holy crap, Braves fans are severely underselling him suddenly. A future .620 OPS guy? Who we might trade for relievers? Good grief.
 
smootness said:
I understand that Peraza may be blocked if the organization believes in Peterson, and I would be ok with listening to offers for him. But holy crap, Braves fans are severely underselling him suddenly. A future .620 OPS guy? Who we might trade for relievers? Good grief.
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My point is that he's our #1 prospect, hyped on all the lists. We've got nowhere to put him as things currently stand. And - is he really all that? Career BA is .302. Hits a homer a year. Walks very little. He runs, but Atlanta as a general statement doesn't run. So what is he?

To us, he's positional flexibility and a backup plan in case the guys who are manning 2B, SS, and CF don't work out. And yeah, if you adjust his hitting for jumping a level, he's about a .620 OPS. Shocking, isn't it? But think about it, and look at his numbers. Doesn't walk, no power....So while he's at the top of all the prospect lists, let's try and get something useful for him.

I look at our bullpen coughing up game after game (which makes me want to puke) and think, hey, maybe that would be a good place to upgrade. And no, I don't mean a bunch of crap, I mean elite relief talent. Hey, a power bat at 3B or the corner OF works, too. Or the Lucroy deal above, since Bethancourt was similarly hyped and didn't know which end of the bat to hold.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
My point is that he's our #1 prospect, hyped on all the lists. We've got nowhere to put him as things currently stand. And - is he really all that? Career BA is .302. Hits a homer a year. Walks very little. He runs, but Atlanta as a general statement doesn't run. So what is he?

To us, he's positional flexibility and a backup plan in case the guys who are manning 2B, SS, and CF don't work out. And yeah, if you adjust his hitting for jumping a level, he's about a .620 OPS. Shocking, isn't it? But think about it, and look at his numbers. Doesn't walk, no power....So while he's at the top of all the prospect lists, let's try and get something useful for him.

I look at our bullpen coughing up game after game (which makes me want to puke) and think, hey, maybe that would be a good place to upgrade. And no, I don't mean a bunch of crap, I mean elite relief talent. Hey, a power bat at 3B or the corner OF works, too. Or the Lucroy deal above, since Bethancourt was similarly hyped and didn't know which end of the bat to hold.
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Yeah, he might be a .620 OPS guy right now in the majors. He's 21. Projecting him to be that moving forward is asinine.

What is he? He's exactly what you said - a .300 hitter with great speed and defense. That is a serious asset, not something to be traded away for bullpen help.

And no, Bethancourt was not similarly hyped. Not even close.
 
smootness said:
Yeah, he might be a .620 OPS guy right now in the majors. He's 21. Projecting him to be that moving forward is asinine.

What is he? He's exactly what you said - a .300 hitter with great speed and defense. That is a serious asset, not something to be traded away for bullpen help.

And no, Bethancourt was not similarly hyped. Not even close.
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No, I understand he's not a finished product. But the next guy who goes from a 2% walk rate to a 10% will be the first.
 
smootness said:
Yeah, he might be a .620 OPS guy right now in the majors. He's 21. Projecting him to be that moving forward is asinine.

What is he? He's exactly what you said - a .300 hitter with great speed and defense. That is a serious asset, not something to be traded away for bullpen help.

And no, Bethancourt was not similarly hyped. Not even close.
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I'm afraid that Peraza will end up being Juan Pierre offensively. If I were in charge I'd be looking to put together a package built around him to go after someone with a little more pop in their bat. But I definitely wouldn't trade him for relievers - at least not the kind of relievers we could get for him. I mean, if the Padres want to give us Kimbrel back for Peraza then sure, but that's not happening.
 
DirkPiggler said:
I'm afraid that Peraza will end up being Juan Pierre offensively.
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Interesting you say that... As thethe reminds us daily that Mallex Smith is a hall of famer, I checked his stats against Pierre's and they have very similar minor league numbers... Almost identical

Don't get me wrong, it's not like Pierre was a bum (he was much of the time - but put up a few good seasons)... but he's not the missing piece for our 2017 WS.
 
I remember when Yuniel Escobar "solidified" SS for years to come and made trading Elvis Andrus justifiable.

Nothing against Jace Peterson. But i wanna keep Jose.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Yunel was a damn good SS both offensively and defensively for a few years. I'll take that if we can get it out of Peterson at 2B.
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Same here, plus Escobar stayed very good defensively up until he started having back issues (a year or so ago in the AL). I think last year was his only really poor year at short defensively. Plus whether we like him or hate him he is having a very good season with the bat in Washington last I checked (though no longer playing at short of course).
 
sturg33 said:
Interesting you say that... As thethe reminds us daily that Mallex Smith is a hall of famer, I checked his stats against Pierre's and they have very similar minor league numbers... Almost identical

Don't get me wrong, it's not like Pierre was a bum (he was much of the time - but put up a few good seasons)... but he's not the missing piece for our 2017 WS.
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Juan Pierre and Mallex's stats are not similar. Pierre's OPS at age 21 & 22 was .756 and .757. Smith at the same age (same level of play as well) is at .889 and .839. I've read where Smith might even become a double digit home run guy when he fully matures.
 
What's the hurry on peraza? He's still very young. . We can keep him in the minors for years. No need to give him up.

If someone comes hard for jace or peraza ior albies to be their Ss them make the deal.

Peraza should net a long term solution in the field or tor guy. Oyherwise he is depth
 
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