¿Qué decisión tomar con respecto a Peráza?

[Julio3000]

My $.02:

I'm not sold on the wisdom of moving Peraza off the position where he has most value, although demonstrating some versatility to look potential trade partner is hopefully byproduct of doing so.

I'm also not sold on Peraza as some kind of a stud prospect, either. I'd love to move him if he were the centerpiece of a deal for some talent in a position of need for us, but I wouldn't trade them just for the sake of trading him.

 

[gilesfan]

My $.02:

I'm not sold on the wisdom of moving Peraza off the position where he has most value, although demonstrating some versatility to look potential trade partner is hopefully byproduct of doing so.

I'm also not sold on Peraza as some kind of a stud prospect, either. I'd love to move him if he were the centerpiece of a deal for some talent in a position of need for us, but I wouldn't trade them just for the sake of trading him.

Agreed. I think he was wrongly put on top 50 lists due to being young for his level. Granted, that is very important, but I think prospects analysts often put too much stock in it. It reminds me somewhat of the Andrus talk. (who is a good player, but was viewed as a great prospect due to being young for his level).

I don't know a ton about Peraza's defense, but he's the typical speed type offensive player, except that he has a Jeff Francoeurian walk rate. I think you can probably live with that offensively, but it puts a ton of pressure on you to hit for a high average. I think Peraza is a good prospect and likely a future starting middle infielder, but I agree with you in thinking he's not a "stud" prospect.

 

[thethe]

That's going to be his biggest hurdle imo. Pierre was always very hard to strike out and that helped him a ton.

But Smith has demonstrated a consistent walk rate at arou d 11%. With his speed that is a tremendous c9mb8nation. He also has more pop in his bat than someone like Pierre.

 

[thewupk]

Agreed. I think he was wrongly put on top 50 lists due to being young for his level. Granted, that is very important, but I think prospects analysts often put too much stock in it. It reminds me somewhat of the Andrus talk. (who is a good player, but was viewed as a great prospect due to being young for his level).

I don't know a ton about Peraza's defense, but he's the typical speed type offensive player, except that he has a Jeff Francoeurian walk rate. I think you can probably live with that offensively, but it puts a ton of pressure on you to hit for a high average. I think Peraza is a good prospect and likely a future starting middle infielder, but I agree with you in thinking he's not a "stud" prospect.

I wouldn't call him a stud either. But if you get Juan Pierre offense with good defense in the middle infield then you would be a quality starting major leaguer. Isn't that what you would expect from his prospect ranking?

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Mallex has an isoSLG of .067, he has a long way before anything thinks he's going to hit 10+ homers in the majors. Was it Bobby Cox that wrote the article?

Juan Pierre was a damn good player for a few years in the majors. He almost hit .300 for his career, which is really tough to do. He just didn't have much pop and a noodle arm. BTW, Pierre was in the majors at age 22.

I don't really think it's an insult to compare Smith to Pierre. Both were singles hitters. Smith likely walks a little bit more and strikes out a lot more. FYI, but Smith's IsoSLG right now in AA is equal to Juan Pierre's career IsoSLG in the major leagues.

Boy, you spun the crap out of that one. Mallex had 41 extra base hits in '14 and an ISO of .122. At two levels, at the age of 21. He's going to have a lot more pop than Juan Pierre. It's the same as people who picked a half year of Freddie hitting doubles and said he was Mark Grace.

And Mallex's delta between BA and OBP over his minor league career is a steady .092, which doubles Pierre's career .045.

Smith had 11 OF assists in '14 too, so I'm guessing that's not a noodle arm.

Let's talk about something you know about, that interests you. Why are the Nats underperforming? Injuries to Strasburg and Werth? Desmond the leading candidate for the gold glove still? Is Bryce's hair worth 3 WAR by itself?

 

[gilesfan]

I wouldn't call him a stud either. But if you get Juan Pierre offense with good defense in the middle infield then you would be a quality starting major leaguer. Isn't that what you would expect from his prospect ranking?

Maybe so, I guess it depends on which prospect ranking you look at.

 

[50PoundHead]

IMO, Peraza should have stayed at SS unless he was just a train wreck on defense. I don't believe in extracting value from players in the minors by moving them to lesser defensive positions. The issue Hart is going to have to figure out is he has so many of the same type of players. (Albies, Smith, Jace, Peraza) and only 1-2 spots for them to fill. You don't want any of the 4 playing anything other than SS, 2B, CF and SS is locked up for a long time. Its incredible that posters would pencil in all 4 of those guys as being better than Juan Pierre.

I would trade Peraza in a heartbeat for a top 5 corner outfielder or 3B prospect if another team felt they needed a speedster. Trading him for relief pitchers would be pretty dumb though.

Good points. I think Peraza has value and that value has been somewhat undercut by the decision to move him off SS. That said, for value to the major league team under the previous regime, he had to get acclimated to playing 2B. If Wren were still at the helm, I think Peraza would have be the Braves' starting 2B right now (or shortly after the Super 2 deadline). Fine line with all of this. The extension to Simmons cemented his place at SS for the duration of that contract and Braves had big-time needs at 2B and CF. My fear now is that the Braves are turning Peraza into a utility man. His optimal value in any trade is contingent on him being a major league SS.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Peraza is seriously being undervalued. Mallex has been ridiculously good this year and may have passed Peraza as our top position player prospect, but I feel that's making people discount Peraza by comparing the two. Add to it the fact that Peterson has filled second base admirably and that we now have depth in the system with leadoff hitters and Peraza is further pushed to the side. Just because we have other excellent prospects with similar skill sets and now have depth in the areas Peraza would help doesn't make Peraza someone you just give away.

Peraza has the value of whatever a team would pay to get him if we decide to trade him and a team will pay far more than a few relievers for him.

Cool.

 

[thewupk]

But Smith has demonstrated a consistent walk rate at arou d 11%. With his speed that is a tremendous c9mb8nation. He also has more pop in his bat than someone like Pierre.

But as he goes to the majors you would expect that walk rate to dip some and his K rate to go up. And the pop remains to be seen. Smith's ISO in AA is equal to what Pierre did for his career in the majors.

The main question with Smith will be the kind of contact he will make at the major league level. If he can maintain a good BABIP at the 320+ range he should be good offensively. If it's not then you shouldn't expect anything special out of him with the bat.

 

[gilesfan]

Boy, you spun the crap out of that one. Mallex had 41 extra base hits in '14 and an ISO of .122. At two levels, at the age of 21. He's going to have a lot more pop than Juan Pierre. It's the same as people who picked a half year of Freddie hitting doubles and said he was Mark Grace.

So he's going to have a ton of power because he put up a iso of .122 in a league where the average iso was .156? You realize he playing in the California League, with a league average ERA of 4.60? His numbers in the Midwest League were .098 iso in a league where average was .118.

Jace Peterson had 37 extra base hits and a .106 isoSLB in the California League in 2013. He currently has 9 extra base hits in the majors.

 

[thewupk]

Maybe so, I guess it depends on which prospect ranking you look at.

Yeah. That has been my impression all a long from Peraza. A quality middle infielder who could have good offensive seasons depending on how the BABIP falls with a lot of steals.

 

[thewupk]

So he's going to have a ton of power because he put up a iso of .122 in a league where the average iso was .156? You realize he playing in the California League, with a league average ERA of 4.60? His numbers in the Midwest League were .098 iso in a league where average was .118.

Jace Peterson had 37 extra base hits and a .106 isoSLB in the California League in 2013. He currently has 9 extra base hits in the majors.

Yeah those leagues have like a built in Coors effect. You have to take that into consideration.

 

[nsacpi]

Agreed. I think he was wrongly put on top 50 lists due to being young for his level. Granted, that is very important, but I think prospects analysts often put too much stock in it. It reminds me somewhat of the Andrus talk. (who is a good player, but was viewed as a great prospect due to being young for his level).

I don't know a ton about Peraza's defense, but he's the typical speed type offensive player, except that he has a Jeff Francoeurian walk rate. I think you can probably live with that offensively, but it puts a ton of pressure on you to hit for a high average. I think Peraza is a good prospect and likely a future starting middle infielder, but I agree with you in thinking he's not a "stud" prospect.

I think with guys like Andrus and Peraza who are young for their levels there is more a chance they will develop some power than a guy who is putting up similar stats but a couple years older. The idea is the body matures and catches up to the competition. It certainly does not always happen. But the odds are higher with guys who are young for their level.

 

[sturg33]

Juan Pierre and Mallex's stats are not similar. Pierre's OPS at age 21 & 22 was .756 and .757. Smith at the same age (same level of play as well) is at .889 and .839. I've read where Smith might even become a double digit home run guy when he fully matures.

I just quickly looked at their career numbers... Pierre's last season in the minors was when he was 22, and he spent 4 seasons. Mallex has spent 4 seasons and he is 22.

Pierre's career OPS - .771

Smith's career OPS - .781

Obviously it goes deeper than that - but it was a quick comp.

EY Jr. has some great minor league numbers too (yes I know he was old)

Point... I'm guessing a ton of speed guys had great minor league numbers

 

[thethe]

But as he goes to the majors you would expect that walk rate to dip some and his K rate to go up. And the pop remains to be seen. Smith's ISO in AA is equal to what Pierre did for his career in the majors.

The main question with Smith will be the kind of contact he will make at the major league level. If he can maintain a good BABIP at the 320+ range he should be good offensively. If it's not then you shouldn't expect anything special out of him with the bat.

All that is true but at this time Smith projects to be a good major leaguer. Any player can go either way once they reach the bigs.

 

[nsacpi]

I just quickly looked at their career numbers... Pierre's last season in the minors was when he was 22, and he spent 4 seasons. Mallex has spent 4 seasons and he is 22.

Pierre's career OPS - .771
Smith's career OPS - .781

Obviously it goes deeper than that - but it was a quick comp.

EY Jr. has some great minor league numbers too (yes I know he was old)

Point... I'm guessing a ton of speed guys had great minor league numbers

Plus Smith played in the California League last season, which is very favorable for hitters. You have to take his ISO numbers there with a grain of salt.

 

[yeezus]

No one said it was insult to compare Smith to Pierre. Just that saying their numbers are "identical" is just wrong. If Smith will K a lot more, he'll also walk a lot more. He walked 69 times last year while Pierre's career high in the minors was 38. He has better numbers across the board except k-rate; the only number that's equal is their ISO. Smith hit 5x as many homers last year as Pierre hit his whole minor league career.

And again, he's improving as he climbs the ladder, rather than regressing. That's really important, IMO.

 

[thewupk]

I just quickly looked at their career numbers... Pierre's last season in the minors was when he was 22, and he spent 4 seasons. Mallex has spent 4 seasons and he is 22.

Pierre's career OPS - .771

Smith's career OPS - .781

Obviously it goes deeper than that - but it was a quick comp.

EY Jr. has some great minor league numbers too (yes I know he was old)

Point... I'm guessing a ton of speed guys had great minor league numbers

Speed guys tend to have super high BABIP in the minors to inflate their stats as well.

 

[thethe]

Plus Smith played in the California League last season, which is very favorable for hitters. You have to take his ISO numbers there with a grain of salt.

Didn't Pierre play in the same leagues since he was in Colardos farm?

 

[gilesfan]

I think with guys like Andrus and Peraza who are young for their levels there is more a chance they will develop some power than a guy who is putting up similar stats but a couple years older. The idea is the body matures and catches up to the competition. It certainly does not always happen. But the odds are higher with guys who are young for their level.

Yes, good point and why they typically grade out higher.

I think it's interesting to look at body types though. You see a guy like Correa, who is awfully skinny, but you know he's going to fill out like Arod (minus roids, of course)

Mallex Smtih is 5-9 170. Jose Peraza is 6-0 180. Albies is 5-9 150. I don't know that any of them fill out to even what Jace is right now, a pretty thick 6-0 200.